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[Giles]

Just had an argument with an end-times believer whose main point seemed to be that the worst occurrences of natural disasters (tsunami, earthquakes, etc) in human history are all happening within his lifetime. He remains unswayed by my point that with the improvements in global communication tech. it's awareness, and not frequency, of these events that's increasing.

Didn't have evidence of this beyond (my presumed) common sense to reinforce my PoV. Anyone got any links to papers/studies that will bare this out? Or shoot me down, I'm not closed-minded to the point of surety.

Thanks! 

[Jack R.]

Really?  He was there when Krakatoa, Vesuvius and Santorini erupted?  Awesome!  He should write them up!  How old is this guy anyway?

[soup_de_grace]

One word:

(click to show/hide)

Toba

[SimonW]

I think he has a point, although the cause is likely population growth as well as better reporting not severity of the disasters themselves.

For example no humans died at all when a meteor struck the Yucatan peninsula wiping out a large number of species - divine intervention or lack of humans?

Although the plagues in the 14th century were believed to kill more people than Spanish flu (which is just inside someone's living memory, although I don't know anyone that old). Certainly the plagues caused greater social disruption because the proportion of people who died (I remember when we had a smith AND A miller in the village).

Wiki keeps a top ten

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Ten_deadliest_natural_disasters

But they exclude plagues, presumably these are not natural but sent by God as punishment for not using handkerchiefs properly.

[Jim S]

Also the fact that there are a LOT more people, with many living in dangerous places, like at sea level in an area prone to hurricanes.  (As SimonW just said) 

For example, keep in mind that Katrina was not freakishly powerful, it had decent power and very good aim.  GW considerations aside, it is likely that large hurricanes have been hitting the gulf coast of the US for centuries.

Beyond that, this looks like a good starting point for specific events.  But I can only find one that has been analyzed to see what might happen it the event occurred today. 

 http://archaeology.about.com/cs/culturalstudies/a/stormy.htm

Here is howstuffworks taking a shot at what would happen if Vesuvius erupted today:  http://history.howstuffworks.com/european-history/mount-vesuvius.htm

To summarize, if Mount Vesuvius erupts today, it wouldn't be a pretty picture. Given its potential, Vesuvius could endanger more than 3 million people and wipe out the city of Naples [source: Than].

[spiney]

2nd the plagues remark; didn't they kill one third the European population?

That's why we Brits still have this:

"Some sources attribute the practice to the period of the Black Death in 1348-9, when probably a third of the population of England died of the disease, but some villages such as Tissington were untouched".

http://www.cressbrook.co.uk/features/welldress.php

Of course, all these things mentioned above are only the ones we know about ............

(added) .... and let's not mention "the great flood" from Biblical times, and isn't all recorded history only 5000 years old ? ................

[JoelWhy]

I think he has a point, although the cause is likely population growth as well as better reporting not severity of the disasters themselves.

That's a good point.  When I was an undergrad, one of my professors showed us a short film (3 minutes perhaps) that went through the population history of mankind.  It was just a world map showing the population density and it would point out historical events.  As it moved on through the decades and centuries, human population would increase a bit, decrease a bit.  Then, all of a sudden, it explodes and makes dramatic increases in the last century or so.  I saw that movie in 1994 or so, and it's stayed with me all this time.

According to Wki, human population more than doubled from 1950 to 1999.  (And, that's after doubling from 1850 to 1950.)  So, perhaps this is really an issue of a tree falling in a forest w/ no one around to hear it fall.  As it stands, when natural disasters occur, it's becoming increasingly rare where humans aren't around to feel its impact.

[Ampatent]

300,000,000 people died of smallpox in the 20th century! That's insane!

[SimonW]

I thought the smallpox figure looked high.

But according to the first serious science article I found it quoted 30% case mortality for Variola major, and before vaccination smallpox was infecting the majority of the population of European (presumably some of that was less serious forms of the infection). With the 1950's having 50 million infections a year despite vaccines having been available for about 200 years, the estimate doesn't too implausible but probably slightly high.

Vaccine refusal and denial were rife. Although in their defense the smallpox vaccine was (and still is) much more dangerous than vaccines routinely given in the UK and US. But still a rational assessment made vaccination a good bet.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2531787/pdf/postmedj00838-0003b.pdf

[whitedevilbrewing]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes#Largest_earthquakes_by_magnitude

See if you can pull a pattern out of that.

[David E.]

Your friend has statistics for the entirety of Human History?

Cool, can we see them?

[Wakefield]

Just had an argument with an end-times believer whose main point seemed to be that the worst occurrences of natural disasters (tsunami, earthquakes, etc) in human history are all happening within his lifetime.

http://www.bible.ca/ef/expository-matthew-24-6-7.htm

The claim that an increase in natural disasters is a harbinger of the end of the world is unsupported by the Bible. The Matthew passage often quoted by con artists seeking to bilk the fearful was very clearly referring to the destruction of Jerusalem, which happened not long after the time of the Gospels.

[Anders]

Really?  He was there when Krakatoa, Vesuvius and Santorini erupted?  Awesome!  He should write them up!  How old is this guy anyway?

Screw that. I want his report on the Permian extinction.

[Nacreous]

Screw that. I want his report on the Permian extinction.

Dummy; The Flood did that!