Topic: Stock Predictions for 2011 - shorts only

[Citizen Skeptic]

mindme has been kind enough in the last couple of years to sponsor the stock picker game to the upside. i expect he'll do the same this year and i plan on playing. but i thought it would also be fun to pick a "short" for the year and see who can pick the losers.

rules are simple - pick a stock anytime between now and the end of this year (dec 31, 2010) and on the last trading day of 2011, the biggest loser on a percentage basis will be the winner. if your choice goes bankrupt during the year, you win automatically. the stocks must be traded on a major global exchange (NYSE, NASDAQ, etc.) Major global exchanges are OK too.

my choice: tesla motors TSLA $25.55 today Dec 27 at close.

i wish you all the worst of luck.

[editorial]

i would have chosen gm except i think no matter how badly they perform the government will prop up their stock price so they can get their money out of it at the expense of clueless small investors. never bet against an shareholder with bottomless pockets to prop up the price. i bet the fed is already on the job.

[/editorial]

[moj]

I'll bite and I hope I'm wrong but pick Amazon. I love them, I shop there often and love my kindle but don't think they can beat this year for them. The kindle 3 is the best selling e-book reader of all time but e-book readers will be poached by tablets in 2011. I think there stock is over valued and hope it sinks so I can buy it on the cheap. They are good at what they do, but don't see how they can grow, let alone beat the year they had this year.

AMZN 182.14

[Iconoclast]

So many candidates to choose from! Do I go with a bank like HBAN? Or high flyer like AAPL or NFLX? And energy play? Retailer? No, I've got it, my pick: Whole Foods (WFMI).

Citizen- do you want to require market caps over say $1B so as to exclude the riff raf and penny stocks?

[Karyn]

Penny stocks aren't traded on the major exchanges, right?  So they would be automatically unavailable.

Can I trade a portfolio of already badly beat up CMOs? 

This is going to be a tough one.  Generally, I expect most of the losers have been driven into the ground already (with the exception of GM, who should have accepted defeat and packed up.)  I'll get back to you in a few.

[Citizen Skeptic]

The value of penny stocks is meaningless because of how and where they are traded. I am assuming you guys are talking pink sheets and the like. The major exchanges have delisting rules that usually require a share price of $1 or a min cap or other requirements.

[Dirty J. Martini]

I'll go with Yahoo - YHOO currently at 16.35 and falling!

[Karyn]

I'll go with Yahoo - YHOO currently at 16.35 and falling!

Damnit....That's what i was thinking about going with today.  I think they are seriously on their way out.  Now I have to come up with some other dying internet company.


Edit:  Fuck it.  I'll take Blockbuster.

[Dirty J. Martini]

I'll go with Yahoo - YHOO currently at 16.35 and falling!

Damnit....That's what i was thinking about going with today.  I think they are seriously on their way out.  Now I have to come up with some other dying internet company.


Edit:  Fuck it.  I'll take Blockbuster.

Oh, nice call!

[Iconoclast]

Edit:  Fuck it.  I'll take Blockbuster.

Good call, but it's a penny stock on the pink sheets already.

[Citizen Skeptic]

Edit:  Fuck it.  I'll take Blockbuster.

Good call, but it's a penny stock on the pink sheets already.

Yeap. Illegal pick. Two beer penalty before next pick.

[andrewclunn]

AT&T, Inc. (T)

They're gonna get crushed.

[rmcbride]

AT&T, Inc. (T)

They're gonna get crushed.

Don't know about that one.  Hear about the iphone?

Wondering about Time Warner. 

[Karyn]

Edit:  Fuck it.  I'll take Blockbuster.

Good call, but it's a penny stock on the pink sheets already.

Holy shit....seriously.

Damnit.

Well I have to do some research tonight anyway.  I finally bothered to look at my roth ira this afternoon and sold out of a bunch of crap I probably should have dropped 2 years ago.  Now I have to figure out what to replace it with.

[Karyn]

Okay, I'm taking Nokia.  I think they are going to finally drop off the market this year.  NOK NOK NOK!

[cerveauxfrits]

I pick NFLX.  Currently trading at $180.27. P/E of 67.99 on earnings whose sustainability is far from assured - now that everyone's getting into streaming (including them), their moat has all but disappeared.  I think it's only a matter of time before their investors realize they're holding onto AOL shares.