Just got done re-reading The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver for a skeptics' book club. 14/10 A++++++++++++
This and not The Demon Haunted World or Flim Flam or whatever ought to be the skeptics' bible. It's all about probability-based forecasting, scientific skepticism, and how humans make mistakes, told from the perspective of a number of different industries and models including baseball (Silver wrote for a publication called Baseball Prospectus that predicts their statistics in upcoming seasons), poker (Silver also made a fair bit of money playing online poker back in the day), the stock market, the housing bubble, the weather, climate change, chess, and several others. It might be a bit dry if you're not into Bayes but at the same time I think he does a great job of explaining it and in so doing really nails lots and lots of different but important things, including why you ought to trust foxes more than hedgehogs, how cognitive biases enter everyone's minds, not just the hoi polloi, and so on.
Yeah, just a great book. It's already beginning to get just a liiiitle bit dated but that's a tiny, tiny criticism.