Author Topic: Episode #598  (Read 2720 times)

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Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2016, 02:23:01 AM »
Please continue to put spoilers in tags. I skipped the review, because I plan on watching the movie later. Thanks. :)

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2016, 09:22:44 AM »
I don't think it's accurate or fair to say that Relativity is deterministic, since it does not deal with events on the atomic and sub-atomic scales, where QM rules, and is probabilistic. Relativity deals with spacetime and gravity, not with the interactions of particles.

That's an interesting question, that I don't know the answer to: is a system considered deterministic only relative to its applicable domain? Or does it fall outside this category when there exists a domain -- a probabilistic one, no less -- that it can make no determinations about.

And to avoid straying too far off topic:

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Offline avillarrealpouw

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Re: Episode #598: Female Doctors
« Reply #17 on: December 26, 2016, 09:59:39 AM »
    I could not separate myself from the feeling that this whole study was poorly analyzed. Yes, 30,000 people a year is a lot, taking into account that every single death is a tragedy. But no, 0.43% is not an impressive difference, even if the p-value is 0.01.

    So many reasons can be found for this disparity that you can only see this result as an anomaly, the kind we saw in the Pioneer Anomaly.
    • Maybe female doctors are promoted only when they achieve a better standard than male doctors in the same situation
    • Maybe female doctors are less pressed to "keep the meat moving" because many of them are just the secondary source of income in the family
    • Maybe the female specialists are called by residents to take over more of the simpler cases, while the harder-to-get and more experienced male doctors are reserved for the harder cases
    • Maybe we are seeing a generational shift, where almost every specialist over the age of 60 is male, while most of the new doctors are female

    And if I worked a little more, I could add at least another dozen reasons. A study that finds such a precise result in such an intangible issue must be taken just as food for thought, or immediately discarded. If you think every single study on the differences between sexes has been tentative, at best, but this one study can show us how to save 30000 lives per year, I have a nice white house not far from the Capitol I wish to sell to you.

    I do think there are specific benefits in having a female physician, which can, under some circumstances, lead to a better treatment. The same can be said for male doctors. But the only explanation I have for the study that finds a tiny little diamond in a swamp of mud is, something is not what it seems.

Offline 2397

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #18 on: December 26, 2016, 10:35:11 AM »
With the idea of female doctors doing better, and male nurses doing better, I was wondering if that is just a result of more of one gender being added to the work force more recently and benefiting from the progress that has been made, being better trained and not stuck in the old ideas. But they did talk about compensating for age, and I haven't looked into the details myself.

Offline lonely moa

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #19 on: December 26, 2016, 12:40:52 PM »
Purple corn is an ancient variety, Dr Novella.

Helminthic therapy has been a thing... for ages, literally, BTW.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2016, 05:25:01 PM by lonely moa »
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Offline avillarrealpouw

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Re: Episode #598: Female Doctors
« Reply #20 on: December 26, 2016, 03:29:50 PM »
With the idea of female doctors doing better, and male nurses doing better, I was wondering if that is just a result of more of one gender being added to the work force more recently and benefiting from the progress that has been made, being better trained and not stuck in the old ideas. But they did talk about compensating for age, and I haven't looked into the details myself.

While they might have compensated for the exact effect that age might have, we still have the problem that this is a hugely complex problem with more ramifications than you or I can count, but the result is a simple, precise and very, very small effect, measured with a p<0.01. This is like going to the Oracle and getting two of the digits of the lottery's winning number. You know that the result is extraordinary, but you cannot even analyze and find out if there is something solid behind, or magic, or just plain luck.

You can always have strange results in statistics that have very simple explanations, just not the explanation you think. In this case, just the fact that some of the measurements were self-reported makes you expect p-values of 0.05 or 0.1 at the least, so getting p-values of 0.01 and better should make you cringe, not feel confident.

Offline God Bomb

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #21 on: December 26, 2016, 10:17:17 PM »
I found the doctor segment extremely confusing since genders have been scientifically proven to not exist.
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Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #22 on: December 26, 2016, 11:46:40 PM »
I found the doctor segment extremely confusing since genders have been scientifically proven to not exist.

Um...

Offline Nano_Burger

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2016, 05:51:52 PM »
I'm surprised that the Tralfamadorians didn't come up when discussing creatures that live unstuck in time.  They were in Kurt Vonnegut's, Slaughter House 5.   

But...District 9  ???  I'd take all the wanna-be scientists on Prometheus than the gaping plot holes in District 9.  Rocket fuel that turns you into an alien life form that has a taste for cat food ::)  That is actually a plot point!  The whole apartheid parallel was unsubtle and obtrusive.  I'll take my prawns on the barby!  On a side note, I think trilobites were probably some "good eating."

Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #24 on: December 28, 2016, 11:44:05 AM »
Listening now, re: Arrival -

Military: They can immediately provide you with disciplined personnel, good security, good information control, etc.  I thought this was reasonable.


That was my thought as well.

If you need to set up a secure perimeter, and then establish housing and communications and the like, the military is pretty clearly who can get it done post haste.

Similar to calling out the National Guard for natural disasters.

So that plot point did not bother me at all.
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Offline Pusher Robot

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #25 on: December 28, 2016, 01:49:43 PM »
Right.  Who else has the raw logistical capabilities to establish a complete base with water, power, sanitation, transportation, command and control facilities, and security in a matter of days?  It's just logistics.  Legitimate question though why there wouldn't be a civilian executive in charge of the operations who could be from some other executive agency.

The way I would anticipate it to play out IRL is the President orders the military to set up the base and secure the area.  The military provides the personnel and logistics to operate and support the base where civilians will work and live and provide security, but the President would use his authority as CIC to delegate operational command to the office of the director of the NSF or something, basically putting the military at his or her disposal.
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Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #26 on: December 28, 2016, 05:20:11 PM »
Spoilers, please.

Offline 2397

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #27 on: December 29, 2016, 03:09:21 AM »
Maybe movie discussions should be in their own named thread, even if they talked it on the podcast.

Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #28 on: December 29, 2016, 03:34:31 AM »
I wouldn't think that was necessary, as long as people observe spoiler discipline. I don't want to ruin anybody's fun just because I haven't seen a movie yet.

Offline werecow

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Re: Episode #598
« Reply #29 on: December 29, 2016, 08:26:24 AM »
@:steve: link to the arthropod study in the episode description is broken (http://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/2988)
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