Author Topic: Mortality Increase under Obamacare?  (Read 196 times)

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Offline ShadowSot

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Mortality Increase under Obamacare?
« on: May 10, 2017, 05:50:30 PM »
One of my conservative friends on Facebook shared this:
https://thefederalist.com/2017/04/25/running-numbers-mortality-rates-suggests-obamacare-killing-people/

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Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Mortality Increase under Obamacare?
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2017, 06:39:43 PM »
Skimmed it.  Maybe mixed data.  Even if not, it's 'back of the envelope' and inadequate to support, "Obamacare is killing people."  If it all checks out, maybe the original studies they're comparing figures against weren't very good?  Jumping straight to, "Is Obamacare killing people?," just seems like outlandish pandering.

It's pretty much, "decreasing uninsureds by X% should decrease deaths-due-to-being-uninsured by X%," and they claim a slight increase. 

But they're approximating change in deaths-due-to-being-uninsured by using change in all-cause mortality sans, "deaths caused by drugs, alcohol, assault, suicide, and accidents," which might make the data apples and oranges.  I haven't looked at the first study, though, so I can't say.
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Offline estockly

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Re: Mortality Increase under Obamacare?
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2017, 09:05:38 PM »
Skimmed it.  Maybe mixed data.  Even if not, it's 'back of the envelope' and inadequate to support, "Obamacare is killing people."  If it all checks out, maybe the original studies they're comparing figures against weren't very good?  Jumping straight to, "Is Obamacare killing people?," just seems like outlandish pandering.

It's pretty much, "decreasing uninsureds by X% should decrease deaths-due-to-being-uninsured by X%," and they claim a slight increase. 

But they're approximating change in deaths-due-to-being-uninsured by using change in all-cause mortality sans, "deaths caused by drugs, alcohol, assault, suicide, and accidents," which might make the data apples and oranges.  I haven't looked at the first study, though, so I can't say.

Well the truth doesn't come from a biased source, with an author who's not an expert in a publication that's not peer reviewed.

The author claims the death rate is higher even after specific things are accounted for, but CDC (at least according to the Atlantic) reports that some of those things are the very reason death rates have climbed.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/01/middle-aged-white-americans-left-behind-and-dying-early/433863/

Another factor mentioned in the article: The states showing the most pronounced effects are states that did not go along with medicaid expansion.

It's entirely possible that death rates have gone up under Obama care, even accounting for those things, but the analysis of the evidence we have by a biased non-expert isn't reliable enough to form a conclusion.
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Offline Desert Fox

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Re: Mortality Increase under Obamacare?
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2017, 02:39:10 PM »
Simply a result of an aging population?
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Re: Mortality Increase under Obamacare?
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2017, 03:05:38 PM »
Granting the correlation for a second, do they suggest a plausible mechanism for Obamacare's causing it?
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Offline estockly

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Re: Mortality Increase under Obamacare?
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2017, 04:27:18 PM »
Simply a result of an aging population?

No, they're comparing death rates of people within a specific age range.
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Offline estockly

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Re: Mortality Increase under Obamacare?
« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2017, 04:29:36 PM »
Granting the correlation for a second, do they suggest a plausible mechanism for Obamacare's causing it?

The biased right wing non-expert commentator doesn't, it's just Obama.

The CDC suggests it's the opiate problem (which the right-wing commentator claims he accounted for).

I would suggest it's also the worsening obesity epidemic, and that my opinion is probably just as valid, if not more so, than mr. right winger.
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