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Podcasts / Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)
« Last post by Desert Fox on Today at 06:33:08 PM »
One of the simple facts is that even if Jay knew where the car was, he seemed to not know any of the details of what happened. That is why I tend to think it most likely he is not involved.
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Podcasts / Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)
« Last post by Jeremy's Sea on Today at 06:30:58 PM »
I agree that a third party without Jay's involvement is a very simple explanation that requires no more assumptions than the police coerced Jay. Jay with a third party had an insane number of assumptions. Had I considered the idea that Jay wasn't involved at all, then I think that makes perfect sense. At the time I (wrongly) took that part of the story at face value.

So you were right. For the wrong reasons.  ;D ;)

Jay with a third party required one assumption: Jay substituted Adnan's name for the third party in his "confession." That's all it took.

I was told repeatedly that I was making too many assumptions and yet nobody could actually list them for me beyond this one.
Well, no, not really just one assumption. What lies behind that one changed detail is a whole new string of assumptions, which is what I think all of us bickering with you had an issue with. The police fabricating a witness to land a conviction is a lot less complicated than an unknown person capitalizing on the situation and manipulating Jay from outside without detection from the police or multiple parties looking to overturn Adnan's conviction.
I think this is a perfect example of how something like Occam's Razor is only useful when you have more control and knowledge of the details because even by using what you saw as the "least complicated" solution still was as incorrect as any of us were in saying if Jay was involved it was likely Adnan was as well. Only your theory was wrong because it added in details that tied in to the main narrative which were incorrect, and the other side (myself included) was wrong because we didn't have the details that suggested the base of the premise was faulty. We still don't know if Jay was coached and fabricated the thing 100%, but by using the law of parsimony it is certainly more desirable than saying Jay implicated Adnan to cover for someone no one near the case knows anything about.

So even if you reached the right conclusion you certainly didn't do it through the simplest route with the information on hand. But at any rate, what happens next with Adnan is going to be far more interesting than this debate.
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Podcasts / Re: Naked Mormonism
« Last post by Desert Fox on Today at 06:25:36 PM »
It is interesting how actually unoriginal the Book of Mormon really actually is. . .  .It took common beliefs at the time and just seem to have packaged them together.
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Religion / Philosophy Talk / Re: the nature of a woman
« Last post by GodSlayer on Today at 06:21:05 PM »
my trans women friends don't call their bodies "male". #anecdotestalemate

so they disagree with both the dictionary meanings of 'man' and 'male', or are they using a second/third/fourth/fifth definition I'm not thinking of? perhaps I'm not male, according to their reasoning, either.

or do you just mean this in the same way that Christians don't think of themselves as being telepathic, even while transmitting thoughts godward?
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Religion / Philosophy Talk / Re: the nature of a woman
« Last post by lofgren on Today at 05:50:18 PM »
I don't think the two gender system and its dominance are going anywhere soon. There is apparently no culture with fewer than two. Cultures with more than one gender are relatively few, and there is NO consistency among those cultures as to what the third (or additional) genders were. Sometimes they were gay people of either sex. Sometimes they were trans or intersex people. Sometimes they were people who were celibate for religious reasons. Sometimes they were simply people who took on a role in the society normally designated for somebody of the other gender. Often their role in society was even more prescribed and strictly enforced than those of the two more common genders.

LGBTQ people will most likely always have to make their way in a world that is not designed for them. In that sense I suppose it could be viewed as a handicap of sorts, although obviously a culturally manufactured one. And of course the rest of us should not be assholes and make it even more difficult for them than it needs to be.
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Podcasts / Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)
« Last post by lofgren on Today at 05:42:29 PM »
I agree that a third party without Jay's involvement is a very simple explanation that requires no more assumptions than the police coerced Jay. Jay with a third party had an insane number of assumptions. Had I considered the idea that Jay wasn't involved at all, then I think that makes perfect sense. At the time I (wrongly) took that part of the story at face value.

So you were right. For the wrong reasons.  ;D ;)

Jay with a third party required one assumption: Jay substituted Adnan's name for the third party in his "confession." That's all it took.

I was told repeatedly that I was making too many assumptions and yet nobody could actually list them for me beyond this one.
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Podcasts / Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)
« Last post by lofgren on Today at 05:41:12 PM »
Anyways what was that original guy's point anyway refering to page 8? I'm just rambling now.  Was he trying to mock us?

I was not mocking you specifically. I was mocking the people who told me that introducing a third party to the narrative was highly unlikely because it violated Occam's Razor. It sounds like you and I had very similar attitudes (albeit different theories) towards the plausibility of Jay or Adnan as the killer.

That's BS of course. The most likely person to have killed Hae was the person who killed Hae. Just because that person wasn't featured on the Serial podcast doesn't mean that person wasn't likely to have killed her.
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Podcasts / Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)
« Last post by Jeremy's Sea on Today at 05:38:19 PM »
I agree that a third party without Jay's involvement is a very simple explanation that requires no more assumptions than the police coerced Jay. Jay with a third party had an insane number of assumptions. Had I considered the idea that Jay wasn't involved at all, then I think that makes perfect sense. At the time I (wrongly) took that part of the story at face value.

So you were right. For the wrong reasons.  ;D ;)
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Podcasts / Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)
« Last post by lofgren on Today at 05:33:27 PM »
But GUYS, positing another killer totally violates Occam's Razor! You have to choose between Jay an Adnan! Those are your only choices. Or at least that is what I was told repeatedly way back on page 8.
No. It's fun to strawman though isn't it? When it was assumed Jay knew where the car was, introducing an outside person was needlessly making assumptions. In light of the fact that Jay was likely coached and knew nothing of the murder prior to the police it makes sense to look elsewhere. You either knew something the rest of us didn't know, or you got lucky. I'm going with #2. Gloat away.

No, as I explained in detail way way back then, it never, ever made sense that either Adnan was involved nor that Jay committed the crime alone. Introducing a third person was the only way to make anything make sense.

"Given two equally plausible theories, the one that requires the fewest additional assumptions and also explains all of the facts thoroughly is the more likely to be true." This is Occam's razor. It was never plausible that Adnan was involved and Jay working alone would not have explained many important details, such as how he maneuvered both Adnan and Hae's cars during the time that he had both of them and more importantly many of his lies which, had he worked alone, would only have weakened the plausibility of his narrative and put him at significant risk. Occam's razor is exactly why I suspected a third party to begin with.

Admittedly I had almost every detail wrong back then. I had suspected a third party committed the murder and roped Jay into involvement. Now we know that a third party committed the murder and the police roped Jay into involvement. I did not suspect that the police were quite as corrupt as they now appear to be. But I certainly would have suspected police corruption long before I would have suspected that Jay worked alone.
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Tech Talk / Re: iPhone vs Android
« Last post by Jeremy's Sea on Today at 04:59:40 PM »
... I pretty much migrated over to Apple completely and just let them handle the techy crap. (Coming from a guy who builds his own windows machines and has done Hackintosh in the past too)

Ooh, how's a Mac compared to a Windows machine? That's actually something else I'm looking at.
That's a can of worms!
I much prefer the Mac OS, as long as you don't allow it to manage everything on your behalf it's pretty elegant. I thought Windows 7 was pretty good, but 8 was a disaster. I have yet to personally use a piece of hardware (laptop) that rivals the design and life of a macbook either. Sure they're more locked down, more expensive, and you don't get bleeding edge tech, but the PC market is so price driven that even the better designed laptops tend to be either not well built, or also very expensive.
This isn't for everyone, there are reasons to stay PC, but personally, after years of constantly upgrading PCs I am happy I went macbook pro retina. I'm getting limited on video rendering, but that's stuff 99% of the user base has no worries about.
I would go back to a PC/windows machine in the future, but I have yet to see anything that can entice me back.
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