Author Topic: Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)  (Read 54548 times)

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Offline Johnny Slick

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Serial Podcast (WARNING: THE DUDE ABIDES)
« on: December 04, 2014, 01:41:20 PM »
So what does everybody think? Personally, I think that Adnan never should have been convicted in the first place and that it's more likely than not - forget reasonable doubt - that he didn't do it (my money leans towards Jay). The latest episode, where, unbelievably, it turned out that Jay was given an attorney by the prosecutor, pushes it way past the "I have any doubts" line for me.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2014, 12:47:46 PM by Johnny Slick »
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Offline Jeremy's Sea

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2014, 02:55:04 PM »
So what does everybody think? Personally, I think that Adnan never should have been convicted in the first place and that it's more likely than not - forget reasonable doubt - that he didn't do it (my money leans towards Jay). The latest episode, where, unbelievably, it turned out that Jay was given an attorney by the prosecutor, pushes it way past the "I have any doubts" line for me.
I spouted off on this topic already pre-crash, but I'm still left with the feeling that the only person who had a reason would be Adnan. I am left feeling that Jay was way more involved than he let on. My feeling is that Jay strangled the girl for Adnan. So Adnan can say he didn't commit the murder and not be lying and Jay can weave whatever version keeps his ass out of trouble because while he was involved in murder, he didn't "want" the girl dead. Jay sounds like quite a few guys I have known, and while I don't believe any of them are killers, they all make impulsive, bad decisions and have a dark, potentially violent streak to them.

That said, I don't think Adnan should have probably been convicted based on what went to court. I think there's plenty of reasonable doubt despite my arm chair quarterbacking this.
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Offline teethering

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2014, 03:25:38 PM »
So evidence seems thin and yeah I don't see how in the world he could have been convicted, seems a clear miscarriage of justice.

I also think he's innocent.  Jay admits to being involved and admits to lying in his testimony.  He got the benefit of a plea deal by pointing the finger at Adnan.  I'm tempted to think Jay just did it and the only question that keeps open is the motive.  There's some weirdness around Adnan and Jay's girlfriend (I think her name is Stephanie?) and Jay, with Adnan's attention for her, Jay's devotion to her and also her refusal to talk about the case.  My pre-crash speculation was that Stephanie maybe was jealous of Hae Min and got Jay to kill her or maybe killed her herself and got Jay to cover it up.  That seems crazy, but it wouldn't be unique, there was a case like this before.

It's possible Mr. S did it, but then why would Jay lie?  Seems like this theory leaves a lot more open questions.

Whoever did it I'm fairly certain it wasn't Anand and it's pretty clear Jay was involved and would know the killer.

Online Sawyer

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2014, 10:41:47 PM »
Whoever did it I'm fairly certain it wasn't Anand and it's pretty clear Jay was involved and would know the killer.

Then we end up right back at the question that is implied in almost every interview with Adnan - why is he not absolutely furious with Jay?  I know one of the key pieces of advice given in last week's episode was that trying to explain someone's emotional reactions is a terrible way to solve a crime, but seriously, Adnan is inhumanly calm every time Sarah has brought up Jay's lying. 

Regardless I don't know how this came through as a guilty verdict.  Even if the case presented to the jury was much more biased than what we are hearing (which it certainly was), I can't fathom sentencing a kid to a life in prison with huge gaps in the evidence.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2014, 12:10:25 AM by Sawyer »

Offline Johnny Slick

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2014, 10:53:07 PM »
I think Adnan has also been in prison for 15 years to marinate on these issues. Perhaps 5 years in he *was* furious. Now he just seems like he's willing to let bygones be bygones so long as it ends in his release. If there's one thing that I've taken away from this program, it's that you really can't gauge how a person "should" react to a situation, particularly after so much time has elapsed.
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Online Sawyer

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2014, 12:11:48 AM »
http://www.thebolditalic.com/articles/6330-charts-for-people-obsessed-with-serial

Don't know if this was already posted in the old thread.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2014, 07:56:12 AM »
Then we end up right back at the question that is implied in almost every interview with Adnan - why is he not absolutely furious with Jay?  I know one of the key pieces of advice given in last week's episode was that trying to explain someone's emotional reactions is a terrible way to solve a crime, but seriously, Adnan is inhumanly calm every time Sarah has brought up Jay's lying. 

Regardless I don't know how this came through as a guilty verdict.  Even if the case presented to the jury was much more biased than what we are hearing (which it certainly was), I can't fathom sentencing a kid to a life in prison with huge gaps in the evidence.

Where's the quality of life in 15 years of constant anger?  Besides, people can get used to anything.

Edit: Also, if this show's even remotely accurate, great googly boogly this should've been not guilty.
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Offline Jeremy's Sea

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2014, 12:56:15 PM »
So evidence seems thin and yeah I don't see how in the world he could have been convicted, seems a clear miscarriage of justice.

I also think he's innocent.  Jay admits to being involved and admits to lying in his testimony.  He got the benefit of a plea deal by pointing the finger at Adnan.  I'm tempted to think Jay just did it and the only question that keeps open is the motive.  There's some weirdness around Adnan and Jay's girlfriend (I think her name is Stephanie?) and Jay, with Adnan's attention for her, Jay's devotion to her and also her refusal to talk about the case.  My pre-crash speculation was that Stephanie maybe was jealous of Hae Min and got Jay to kill her or maybe killed her herself and got Jay to cover it up.  That seems crazy, but it wouldn't be unique, there was a case like this before.

It's possible Mr. S did it, but then why would Jay lie?  Seems like this theory leaves a lot more open questions.

Whoever did it I'm fairly certain it wasn't Anand and it's pretty clear Jay was involved and would know the killer.
Maybe I'm missing something, but I just don't see anything presented in this that suggests Jay would do it without being convinced to. It seems doubtful he even would have been looked at as a suspect and then he would have to extract himself once they brought Adnan in for fear Adnan would implicate him in the murder and not as an accessory after the fact.
Didn't multiple people say they had been shown Hae's body by Adnan? Also there seems to be a crapload of coincidence in the loaning of cellphones and cars on the day of the murder to believe Adnan wasn't at least aware of what Jay was doing. I think it's fairly clear Jay was more involved than he let's on, it's fitting Adnan into this that is difficult. I'm going with Jay as trigger man and Adnan as accomplice and motivator.

I can definitely be convinced here, I think some of the details are getting fuzzy on me.
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Offline Johnny Slick

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2014, 01:37:28 PM »
Quote
Didn't multiple people say they had been shown Hae's body by Adnan?
No. There was a kid who said that Adnan had shown him the body but he recanted his story and it kind of sounds like he borrowed it from something Jay said. Otherwise, the only person who directly claimed to see Hae's body is Jay.

Quote
Also there seems to be a crapload of coincidence in the loaning of cellphones and cars on the day of the murder to believe Adnan wasn't at least aware of what Jay was doing.
There's really not. What there is is a lot of evidence - in fact, this is documented in the interview itself - that the investigators sat down with Jay and the cell records and allowed him to reconcile his story with the towers. The problem is, even with this, his account is still not consistent with them:

http://viewfromll2.com/2014/11/23/serial-a-comparison-of-adnans-cell-phone-records-and-the-witness-statements-provided-by-adnan-jay-jenn-and-cathy/

That site, by the way, also has a good breakdown of how Jay's testimony in general is horribly unreliable for 4 reasons:

  • While it's often problematic to say that you should believe someone because of their good character, there is kind of a reverse to that - you shouldn't believe someone with bad character - and that kind of does describe Jay.
  • Regardless of character, if the witness has no motivation to lie then one ought to generally believe them, and if they have motivation then one ought to be skeptical. Jay had every reason to lie to the cops; his original story was full of holes and the cops provided him with a list of the calls and basically said "hey, tell us what happened now, and if you have to fudge the details a little bit, we're OK with that". He was given free counsel thanks to a phone call the prosecution made. He as much said he lied in the second interview because he was under the impression that the place he now said it happened had cameras in the parking lot (it did not).
  • Even if he had reason to lie, though, that in and of itself isn't really enough, is it? Okay, but his story has been wildly inconsistent from one telling to the next. We're not talking about minor details either; in one interview he states that Adnan killed Hae in Petapsco State Park, in another it happened in the parking lot outside of the school library, in yet another (also the story used in the trial) it happened in the Best Buy parking lot. He's all over the place about all kinds of things.
  • That's all well and good, but even a liar can say factual things, and one way we can tell that is if they're backed up by corroborating evidence. But Jay's testimony really isn't backed up by corroborating evidence. Some of his multiple explanations of the cell phone calls are backed up, as one would expect them to be given the circumstances of his being presented them, but much of the rest is not, and again not just in trivial ways. Additionally, although Jenn backs up some of what he says (in particular the notion that he was at her house during the time Hae would have been murdered), *that* testimony isn't corroborated by the cell tower data.

As for motive, I think that motive is heavily overrated. I realize that the classic killer-catching formula is motive, means, and opportunity, but a. even that doesn't actually lead you to a causal relationship ("X killed Y"), it just presents an interesting correlation that needs to be discussed further. I can think of any number of reasons a guy like Jay might have killed Hae. Maybe Adnan hired him (which I find specious as well, but it's at least more likely than Adnan killing her with his own bare hands). Maybe he did it just for the experience, Clockwork Orange style (this is, remember, a guy who tried to stab a friend of his because the friend had never been stabbed before). Maybe he was suspicious of Adnan's close relationship with Stephanie, Jay's then-girlfriend, and on the spur of the moment did something to get back at him. Maybe he cajoled Hae into giving him a ride and then tried to make out with her, and then she fought back and he accidentally killed her. I'm not saying any one of these reasons *is* it, but all of them are possible and part of why I'm not willing to say "nah, there's no motive, end of story".

Or maybe a 3rd party did it and Jay, being slightly more savvy WRT the justice system than Adnan and a guy known for, um, telling stories, told the cops what they wanted to hear because he saw the writing on the wall.
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Offline JohnM

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2014, 04:53:23 PM »


Is the fact adnan wanted a plea in both trials fairy irrelevant? dont get me wrong I think he mostly innocent. So why would he?

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2014, 05:02:25 PM »
Innocence is not immunity.  :(
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Offline Johnny Slick

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2014, 06:20:35 PM »
Is the fact adnan wanted a plea in both trials fairy irrelevant? dont get me wrong I think he mostly innocent. So why would he?
He touched on his current line of thinking in the latest episode, which is that regardless of whether you're actually innocent of the crime, if you're a minority living in Baltimore and the cops have decided you committed a crime, you're going to jail and the only question is whether or not you choose to accept a lesser deal.
Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day.

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Offline Movius

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2014, 08:43:14 AM »
My prediction is that the series will end with the state's version totally debunked but when confronted with this Adnan confesses (to a different course of events.)

Online Sawyer

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2014, 10:23:59 AM »
My prediction is that the series will end with the state's version totally debunked but when confronted with this Adnan confesses (to a different course of events.)

I will bet 1000 SGUbucks against this happening. 

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Serial Podcast (WARNING: SPOILERS ABIDE)
« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2014, 10:32:43 AM »
How many dogecoin is that?
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