Author Topic: Self-Driving Cars  (Read 54781 times)

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Offline Mormegil

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1245 on: September 15, 2017, 12:12:19 PM »
I saw a video recently of a car out of control doing a lot of damage and it turned out the driver was having a stroke.

We need more billboards to advertise the dangers of masturbating while driving.

I think they'd sell a lot more self-driving cars if they advertised this.  Maybe include free porn.  So much win.

Is if it wasn't bad enough seeing the guy next to me picking their nose.

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1246 on: November 07, 2017, 03:26:40 PM »
Quote from: Steven Novella
gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

Offline Mr. Beagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1247 on: November 07, 2017, 03:40:10 PM »
http://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED/171109944/industry-redesigned-bob-lutz?AID=/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED/171109944

I have followed Bob Lutz since my days in the auto industry. He is one of the brightest survivors. This is a fascinating article layout out his scenario. He sees this market shifting very quickly and he walks through some of the ramifications.

Quote
The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.

Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.

The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.

On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn't matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation.
 
Then, as you approach your exit, your module will enter deceleration lanes, exit and go to your final destination. You will be billed for the transportation. You will enter your credit card number or your thumbprint or whatever it will be then. The module will take off and go to its collection point, ready for the next person to call.

Most of these standardized modules will be purchased and owned by the Ubers and Lyfts and God knows what other companies that will enter the transportation business in the future.

« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 08:47:12 AM by Mr. Beagle »
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Online daniel1948

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1248 on: November 07, 2017, 06:26:47 PM »
Aaaaaand...it's here.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/07/technology/waymo-phoenix-no-drivers/index.html

Damn! I want to ride in one of those! I would fly to Phoenix for the opportunity. Sadly, it's not a one-shot deal. Apparently you have to be part of the program, and then they'll drive you around, wherever you want to go within the service area, for as long as this phase of the program lasts.
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Online superdave

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1249 on: November 08, 2017, 08:42:29 AM »
something that occurred to me.  If one of the big advantages of self driving cars is their safety, how useful is it to show they can work in an area that is one of the safest regions for driving?

...

I know, baby steps, but still.
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Offline Mr. Beagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1250 on: November 08, 2017, 08:52:27 AM »
We have already seen a huge societal change in the US toward this end. When I was young, getting a drivers' license and learning how to repair a junker car was a rite of passage for teen boys. My professionally-educated sons have little knowledge how a car engine works and couldn't change the oil if they wanted to. Number one son leaves his car sit for days taking Lyfts rather than hassle with driving and parking in downtown Minneapolis. I have also read reports of flagging interest in drivers' training in high schools.
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Offline Morvis13

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1251 on: November 08, 2017, 08:53:57 AM »
One of the main problems plaguing the integration of autonomous cars is the mixture of human drivers. If we could flip a switch and have all cars automagically drive themselves it would be much better. It is those unpredictable and law breaking humans causing a majority of crashes. Why do we think driving is such a right that we can't let a machine do it better?
Murphy's Law: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1252 on: November 08, 2017, 09:54:07 AM »
something that occurred to me.  If one of the big advantages of self driving cars is their safety, how useful is it to show they can work in an area that is one of the safest regions for driving?

...

I know, baby steps, but still.

I think it will be very useful to the company doing it.  If they have even one accident, the media is going to go bonkers over it, even if the autonomous car was not at fault.  Once they have some data showing that their cars are super safe, they might be able to risk going to a less safe driving region.  It's that first baby step that needs to go smoothly because people will be hyper sensitive at first.
Quote from: Steven Novella
gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

Online daniel1948

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1253 on: November 08, 2017, 09:56:32 AM »
something that occurred to me.  If one of the big advantages of self driving cars is their safety, how useful is it to show they can work in an area that is one of the safest regions for driving?

...

I know, baby steps, but still.

You answered your own question in your last line: Baby steps. Also, regulatory permission. And the fact that frankly, autonomous cars are not ready for hard-core city driving yet. I think it will be 5 years. Ten at most.

... Why do we think driving is such a right that we can't let a machine do it better?

Maybe the same reason that driving tests are often insufficient to keep incompetent drivers off the road. The same reason you can take a driving test in a sub-compact and your license gives you the right to drive a Suburban. The same reason Americans think they should be allowed to have an arsenal of guns of all descriptions in their homes.

It's the libertarian streak that runs through America, pretty much regardless of your political affiliation. "If I can afford to buy a car I should be allowed to drive it." And it's fear of anything new. Driverless cars are coming. It's inevitable. The harder sell will be getting rid of human-driven cars, especially when a lot of people cannot afford a new car. It would help if we had decent public transportation. According to Google Maps, it's a 26-minute drive to get from my house to my Cardiologist's office downtown. It takes an hour and a quarter by bus, three different busses, including five minutes of walking. An extra 45 minutes, and in winter those 5 minutes of walking could be on slippery sidewalks in nasty weather. And Spokane is a lot better than some cities. When I lived in L.A. getting to my doc was an hour and a half on two busses, PLUS a half-hour walk, unless I wanted to WAIT a half an hour for a third bus and make it over two hours. I didn't have a car, but it would have been about a half an hour by car.

Without good public transportation for those who cannot afford a new car, it will be very hard to get human-driven cars off the road. Though apparently Bob Lutz thinks that in ten years humans will be forbidden from driving. I hope he's right. But it will be very hard on people who today get by with a junker or an old econobox.
Daniel
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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1254 on: November 09, 2017, 09:36:22 AM »
something that occurred to me.  If one of the big advantages of self driving cars is their safety, how useful is it to show they can work in an area that is one of the safest regions for driving?

...

I know, baby steps, but still.

I think it will be very useful to the company doing it.  If they have even one accident, the media is going to go bonkers over it, even if the autonomous car was not at fault.  Once they have some data showing that their cars are super safe, they might be able to risk going to a less safe driving region.  It's that first baby step that needs to go smoothly because people will be hyper sensitive at first.

LOL, see...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/09/technology/self-driving-bus-accident-las-vegas/index.html

Quote
Self-driving bus involved in accident on its first day
...it appeared that the truck driver hadn't seen the shuttle and continued to back up.
Quote from: Steven Novella
gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1255 on: November 10, 2017, 11:02:30 PM »
Human driver collided with stationery self-driving vehicle.

Offline SkeptiQueer

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1256 on: November 30, 2017, 04:45:41 AM »
I was nearly run over today while crossing the street. I stopped, looked, and began crossing. Another driver texting (I could see her staring at the phone) rolled up to the stop sign, rolled through, and didn't see me until I shouted.

A month and a half ago I was clipped by a (probably) inattentive hit-and-run driver resulting in about $3000 in lost wages and medical bills, and a cost of about $6000 to my employer to cover my shifts at time-and-a-half and eat the cost of scheduled training I could not attend while injured.

Several times per week I see children come through the ER either having just been in an accident caused by a drunk/inattentive/reckless driver, or dying of injuries sustained in an accident with an inattentive, drunk, or reckless driver.

I am 100% in favor of removing as many human drivers as possible as soon as possible.
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Offline SkeptiQueer

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1257 on: November 30, 2017, 04:52:48 AM »
something that occurred to me.  If one of the big advantages of self driving cars is their safety, how useful is it to show they can work in an area that is one of the safest regions for driving?

...

I know, baby steps, but still.

You answered your own question in your last line: Baby steps. Also, regulatory permission. And the fact that frankly, autonomous cars are not ready for hard-core city driving yet. I think it will be 5 years. Ten at most.

... Why do we think driving is such a right that we can't let a machine do it better?

Maybe the same reason that driving tests are often insufficient to keep incompetent drivers off the road. The same reason you can take a driving test in a sub-compact and your license gives you the right to drive a Suburban. The same reason Americans think they should be allowed to have an arsenal of guns of all descriptions in their homes.

It's the libertarian streak that runs through America, pretty much regardless of your political affiliation. "If I can afford to buy a car I should be allowed to drive it." And it's fear of anything new. Driverless cars are coming. It's inevitable. The harder sell will be getting rid of human-driven cars, especially when a lot of people cannot afford a new car. It would help if we had decent public transportation. According to Google Maps, it's a 26-minute drive to get from my house to my Cardiologist's office downtown. It takes an hour and a quarter by bus, three different busses, including five minutes of walking. An extra 45 minutes, and in winter those 5 minutes of walking could be on slippery sidewalks in nasty weather. And Spokane is a lot better than some cities. When I lived in L.A. getting to my doc was an hour and a half on two busses, PLUS a half-hour walk, unless I wanted to WAIT a half an hour for a third bus and make it over two hours. I didn't have a car, but it would have been about a half an hour by car.

Without good public transportation for those who cannot afford a new car, it will be very hard to get human-driven cars off the road. Though apparently Bob Lutz thinks that in ten years humans will be forbidden from driving. I hope he's right. But it will be very hard on people who today get by with a junker or an old econobox.

Counter: autonomous vehicles allow for the design of smaller passenger vehicles that could be run as public transit without needing to run in continuous loops to only the highest-traffic areas, supplementing or replacing buses and making it easier for out-of-the-way people to have access to transit.
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Online daniel1948

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1258 on: November 30, 2017, 10:33:12 AM »
... autonomous vehicles allow for the design of smaller passenger vehicles that could be run as public transit without needing to run in continuous loops to only the highest-traffic areas, supplementing or replacing buses and making it easier for out-of-the-way people to have access to transit.

Ride-sharing as public transit. I like it! Would it really be affordable for the people who today make do with an old junker?
Daniel
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Offline SkeptiQueer

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1259 on: November 30, 2017, 11:57:49 AM »
... autonomous vehicles allow for the design of smaller passenger vehicles that could be run as public transit without needing to run in continuous loops to only the highest-traffic areas, supplementing or replacing buses and making it easier for out-of-the-way people to have access to transit.

Ride-sharing as public transit. I like it! Would it really be affordable for the people who today make do with an old junker?
I wouldn't begin to be to do the math, but if 50 day people use a vehicle even a $50,000 vehicle with a 5 year service life and a $5,000/yr cost, you're looking at about $0.80/day/person. How realistic those numbers are is entirely a different matter, figuring in infrastructure costs and economies of scale.
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