Author Topic: Self-Driving Cars  (Read 119356 times)

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Offline phooey

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1635 on: February 20, 2020, 11:52:04 PM »
No, no Carb Shark, you were right.  Just program in grandmother, soccer ball, oncoming Mack truck into a Macbook, and good to go.  Should be ready by the end of summer.  November tops.  Piece of cake! 

Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1636 on: February 20, 2020, 11:54:39 PM »
I love your style, phooey. Never change.
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Offline phooey

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1637 on: February 21, 2020, 05:14:13 AM »
Oh, this is great news.  It won't happen!  People won't try to stop people on the road to steal, or to get revenge for a breakup or to rape some girls, or just to fuck with the traffic system because of rebellion, or because they are young kids that are bored, or because they are terrorists, or just panhandlers looking for money. Thank goodness this will never happen.  A panhandler won't keep a car prisoner until he is given ten bucks, because, they just won't do that. Phew!

Wow, do you really live in a place where all of those things happen on a regular basis? What do you do about them now?






This was one of my favorite posts by you by the way. 

How ridiculous to think someone would try to stop an automated car to get to the driver-preposterous! 

You live in fairyland, USA? 

Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1638 on: February 21, 2020, 08:16:04 AM »
Has anyone here actually said the path to self-driving cars would be “easy”? If so, I don’t recall it.

Offline phooey

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1639 on: February 21, 2020, 09:57:22 AM »

Well, they said this:

In fact, here are just a few of the quotes I found for the time frame you all were predicting for autonomous vehicles, in 2016:

"Now, I'd love to know what qualifications you have to say that
a) the earth is flat self-driving cars are not self driving now, and
b) Tesla's plans for 2018 production of naptime cars is wrong."


"Nobody is saying the things are perfect now. Tesla is saying 2 years, right? 2 years was the difference between the Osprey V22 falling out of the air and successfully delivering SF teams onto rooftops via a SPIES rig like a Blackhawk. 2 years was the difference between Bush and Obama. 2 years was the difference between Google cars getting trapped in parking lots and cleverly navigating the streets of Monterey during school hours or bar traffic and encountering children and bicycles. A lot can happen in 2 years."

"I'm a bit skeptical that they'll be picking up passengers in self-driving cars within a month."

"This is not evolution. It is innovation. It is a matter of time. All we are arguing over here is if it is 5 years or 50."

"Then maybe they aren't right for your country, but declaring that Tesla can't have a car capable of traversing roads with a sleeping driver in the near future is misguided at best."

"Why do you think these stumbling blocks will take a significant amount of time?"

"A fully-networked highway is probably a decade behind fully computer driven cars"

"Cool! "Get in your car, go to sleep, and let the car take you to your destination, by 2019." That's probably overly optimistic. But the main text suggests they'll be available by 2025"

"Roll-out of enhanced auto-pilot on Tesla vehicles with Level 5 hardware is apparently scheduled to start in about 3 weeks, with monthly updates that are supposed to bring full autonomous driving sometime in 2017. Just in time for my new Tesla 3!"

"The transition will be slowed somewhat by the capital investment needed to buy the new vehicles. That is, existing vehicles will remain in service until the cost of operating them becomes greater than the cost of replacing them.  But I agree that the transition will be faster than many today expect."

"They're scheduled to come out around the end of 2017-All Tesla cars to have full self-driving capability."

"Roll-out of enhanced auto-pilot on Tesla vehicles with Level 5 hardware is apparently scheduled to start in about 3 weeks, with monthly updates that are supposed to bring full autonomous driving sometime in 2017."

"I have confidence that they'll get things straightened out pretty fast, since they're determined to do it right."





 and this:

Quote
"Fact: The technology for nap time cars is very close, and expected to be in production vehicles in two years."


Online daniel1948

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1640 on: February 21, 2020, 11:06:53 AM »
Phooey: You keep posting unattributed quotes. Who said these things? Who on this forum said that "nap time" cars were two years away? Possibly Elon Musk (maybe?) but nobody here believed they were that close, and Musk is famous for two things: Delivering the best cars on the road, and promising them years earlier than he can deliver them.

I certainly never said they were two years away, and I have admitted that my expectations four years ago were too optimistic.

As for your rant above about criminals assaulting the people in self-driving cars, what does that have to do with anything at all? Criminals assault people in cars. Today. The same criminals will assault people in self-driving cars. Are you going to say that we should not allow cars to drive themselves because criminals will still be criminals? Certainly nobody here has ever said that self-driving cars will end crime!
“You say you love your children above all else, and yet you are stealing their future in front of their very eyes.”
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Offline phooey

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1641 on: February 21, 2020, 10:46:53 PM »
You are free to go over the 110 pages of quotes and you can see exactly who said what.  They are all there, I didn't make them up.  Don't ask me to do all the work for you if you don't believe it.  Probably half of those quotes are from you. 

Everyone was predicting 2 years, 3, years, 5 years...Me, (and Latinist at the very beginning), were the only ones who were actually skeptical of the technology in the near future. You certainly weren't. 

The are five thousand technical hurdles to overcome, and then after that you have only just begun, because then you have the security issues, the morality issues, the issues of who owns the car, the issue of who has permission to operate the car, the issues of slower traffic caused by these cars, the issues of fail safe buttons, the issues of complacency, the issues of breeding a generation of people who can’t drive, the issues of preventing nefarious individuals from stopping these cars whenever they feel like it, insurance, computer longevity and reliability, and the list goes on and on.

I laugh looking at how you guys just brushed away these concerns as "ridiculous scenarios" that would never happen.  I think many car manufacturers are starting to realize, wait a second, maybe we do need to also consider these "ridiculous scenario", who would have thought. 

Thankfully they are now, and most companies have completely adjusted their estimates and timetables, and many are thinking of other ways to make their cars safer for now, instead of the pie in the sky completely driverless cars covering the roads, which ain't going to happen in the next decade.  Right now the US is struggling to just keep roads from falling apart and bridges from collapsing, so until you get a government that is more creative than one wastes its money on useless fucking border walls that fall over, whose only purpose is to give racists something to chant about at rallys, you got a ways to go. 

Offline CarbShark

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1642 on: February 21, 2020, 10:55:10 PM »
You are free to go over the 110 pages of quotes and you can see exactly who said what.  They are all there, I didn't make them up.  Don't ask me to do all the work for you if you don't believe it.  Probably half of those quotes are from you. 

Everyone was predicting 2 years, 3, years, 5 years...Me, (and Latinist at the very beginning), were the only ones who were actually skeptical of the technology in the near future. You certainly weren't. 

The are five thousand technical hurdles to overcome, and then after that you have only just begun, because then you have the security issues, the morality issues, the issues of who owns the car, the issue of who has permission to operate the car, the issues of slower traffic caused by these cars, the issues of fail safe buttons, the issues of complacency, the issues of breeding a generation of people who can’t drive, the issues of preventing nefarious individuals from stopping these cars whenever they feel like it, insurance, computer longevity and reliability, and the list goes on and on.

I laugh looking at how you guys just brushed away these concerns as "ridiculous scenarios" that would never happen.  I think many car manufacturers are starting to realize, wait a second, maybe we do need to also consider these "ridiculous scenario", who would have thought. 

Thankfully they are now, and most companies have completely adjusted their estimates and timetables, and many are thinking of other ways to make their cars safer for now, instead of the pie in the sky completely driverless cars covering the roads, which ain't going to happen in the next decade.  Right now the US is struggling to just keep roads from falling apart and bridges from collapsing, so until you get a government that is more creative than one wastes its money on useless fucking border walls that fall over, whose only purpose is to give racists something to chant about at rallys, you got a ways to go.

I found a few of those quotes in this thread, and I have no reason to doubt that the others are also real.

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Offline Alex Simmons

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1643 on: February 22, 2020, 12:53:50 AM »
Everyone was predicting ....

Everyone?

Offline phooey

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1644 on: February 22, 2020, 01:02:24 AM »
Well, I started posting from about page 2 or 3 I think.  In going back, I noticed early on that Latinist was also a bit dubious about the technology being able to work as proposed, very soon. 

But after that, we have about 105 pages of the thread, and it is ONLY me (yep!) in those 100 plus pages that is doubtful of the time frame you guys were hyping.  If you can find anyone else, amongst all you thoroughly skeptical posters, please do share. 

I bring this up to simply point out, that skeptics don't seem to be all that skeptical, except when it comes to their skeptic talking points.  Its why I have an issue with the "skeptical movement" that skeptics like  Steven Novella likes to brag about.  In others words, don't be skeptical, instead follow a movement called the "skeptical movement."  The irony seems to be lost on the followers. 

Offline phooey

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1645 on: February 22, 2020, 01:26:37 AM »
Everyone was predicting ....

Everyone?

By the way Alex, I am an avid bicycling enthusiast, so I would be just as excited as you, if we could have a much better driving experience that makes it better for cyclists.  I just don't happen to think self-driving cars, at this point and time are the answer.  I can imagine all kinds of scenarios where self-driving cars would make weird decisions that would make the roads more dangerous for cyclists, not less.  I prefer more cycling dedicated paths, and more cycling awareness campaigns, and other measures.  In fact, where I live, in China, they have probably more bicycle paths then anywhere in the world, and it would be one of the safest places you could think of to ride a bicycle, if not for all the dam electric motor bike delivery people who don't follow any rules at all.  But it is slowly getting better. 

I am definitely in favor of car sensors which see bicyclists and other warning measures. 

Offline phooey

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1646 on: February 22, 2020, 01:38:14 AM »
For instance Alex, here is just one scenario I am thinking of.  Often times, when there is no bike lane, and you are forced to ride on a small strip of road somewhere between the grass and the lane the car is using.  Well, the car is supposed to give you 1.5 meters of room to ride in.  We all know that doesn't always happen, but hopefully as a car is passing you, they are doing their best to not get too close to you.  I have no idea what a self-driving car will do in these situations.  Is it really going to wait until it can stay that far away from me, before it passes me?  Will it refuse to veer slightly into another open lane, to give me room?  Will it just stubbornly stay in that part of the lane it wants, even if I have to swerve from a rock in my path?  Can I give it hand signals?  Will it listen if it doesn't have the right program?  Will it pass me, and then sometimes stop right in front of me, for a squirrel? 

Who knows.  I am not so anxious to be the guinea pig while they work this all out.   

Offline John Albert

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1647 on: February 23, 2020, 05:35:25 AM »
I've been following this thread on and off for years, but have been hesitant to get too involved because the debate has mostly been too vague to pin down. A lot of weaselly language has been thrown about on all sides, and bickering over ambiguities is really kind of pointless. The nature of predictions is that they're only as useful as they are specific.

If somebody predicted that "self-driving cars will be on the roads by 2020," well that is technically true. Self-driving cars are now being road-tested in a number of markets around the world, even in the US [1, 2, 3].

And then there's the problem of definitions; what degree of automation is sufficient to justify a designation of "self-driving"? The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has published a document classifying automobile automation into 5 levels:

                   
Quote
Defining “Self-Driving” in Levels

“Self-driving” is a rather vague term with a vague meaning. For this article, we’ll be referencing the “self-driving levels” as defined by the SAE International, which can be viewed below:



This means the vehicle can safely drive itself under specific conditions but the driver will need to quickly intervene when called on. This is a car that could drive itself on the highway while you watch a movie but would need you to take control when you get off the highway. Some may view this as only partially self-driving.
  • Level 1 automation some small steering or acceleration tasks are performed by the car without human intervention, but everything else is fully under human control

  • Level 2 automation is like advance cruise control or original autopilot system on some Tesla vehicles, the car can automatically take safety actions but the driver needs to stay alert at the wheel

  • Level 3 automation still requires a human driver, but the human is able to put some “safety-critical functions” to the vehicle, under certain traffic or environmental conditions. This poses some potential dangers as humans pass the major tasks of driving to or from the car itself, which is why some car companies (Ford included) are interested in jumping directly to level 4

  • Level 4 automation is a car that can drive itself almost all the time without any human input, but might be programmed not to drive in unmapped areas or during severe weather. This is a car you could sleep in.

  • Level 5 automation means full automation in all conditions
https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

And there's the question of whether we're talking about privately-owned passenger vehicles, or commercial passenger vehicles, or commercial freight delivery vehicles? The timelines seem to be quite different for those different use cases.

Online daniel1948

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1648 on: February 23, 2020, 09:36:11 AM »
Phooey stresses three different points, one of which is legitimate, and the other two of which (IMO) are not:

1. He correctly points out that the task of developing a self-driving system is immensely difficult. He seems to think that it is so difficult that it will never be accomplished. I disagree that it's impossible, but he's right that it's immensely difficult.

2. He asserts that cars should never be allowed to drive themselves because self-driving cars will sometimes kill people. He seems to feel that somehow it is morally unacceptable to allow robots to drive cars if they kill people, even if they replace human drivers who kill more people. And this is a view I find unacceptable: No system is perfect and there will be fatal accidents, but since human drivers kill nearly a million and a quarter people every year, world-wide, (that's well over three thousand a day!) and injure or disable another twenty million to fifty million, an automated driving system that killed and injured only half those numbers would be an improvement that it would be unconscionable to turn down.

3. He thinks we cannot have self-driving cars because, in his view, it would be impossible to insure them. This is just silly. The insurance companies will figure out how to write insurance policies. Probably the car companies would be the ones held liable, and would have to buy the insurance, which would be cheaper than at present due to the reduced number of accidents. And they'd pass this cost on to the car buyers. Everybody wins: Fewer accidents, and lower insurance costs, which car buyers would pay in the price of the car rather than directly to the insurance companies.

I think a big issue here is that people feel safer when they are in control than when they are not. Flying is much safer than driving, but most people are more afraid to fly than to drive. I admit to this myself: I am more scared getting on a plane than getting in a car. But a smart person bases decisions on actual risk, not on fear level. I always preferred to fly rather than drive, any time I had the choice. Flying is more scary but safer. (Now that I live in paradise, I have no further need of long-distance travel. :) )

This will indeed make it harder to convince people to accept self-driving cars. People will, at least at first, be governed more by their fear than by rational risk assessment. But people do fly in large numbers. And they will accept self-driving cars.

One thing we are all in agreement about, Phooey and myself and everyone else: We don't want self-driving cars on the market until they are safer than human drivers. This is why you and I cannot buy a self-driving car today.
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Offline Awatsjr

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1649 on: February 23, 2020, 02:07:09 PM »
I think many people acknowledge that a screw-up in 3D (airplane) is likely to be far worth than in 2D (car), so safer, sure but a small failure is worse.