Author Topic: Self-Driving Cars  (Read 119357 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline CarbShark

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 13344
  • "I ain't no doctor with degrees" - Think
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1650 on: February 23, 2020, 04:59:30 PM »
I think many people acknowledge that a screw-up in 3D (airplane) is likely to be far worth than in 2D (car), so safer, sure but a small failure is worse.

But, driving on roads, with intersections and bicycles and pedestrians and the other guy and weather and terrain and traffic is far more complex than flying.
... and Donald Trump is president of the United States

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9753
  • Observer of Phenomena. Pronouns: he/him
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1651 on: February 23, 2020, 05:06:17 PM »
I think many people acknowledge that a screw-up in 3D (airplane) is likely to be far worth than in 2D (car), so safer, sure but a small failure is worse.

But, driving on roads, with intersections and bicycles and pedestrians and the other guy and weather and terrain and traffic is far more complex than flying.

The consequences of a mid-air collision may be more severe than the consequences of a surface collision. Risk formula: chance of something going wrong multiplied by consequences of something going wrong.
Self-described nerd.

Offline John Albert

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7738
  • Coincidence theorist
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1652 on: February 23, 2020, 08:56:26 PM »
It seems most likely that the self-driving tech will probably start out being used in commercial vehicles, and then eventually spread to private cars later.

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9753
  • Observer of Phenomena. Pronouns: he/him
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1653 on: February 23, 2020, 09:31:56 PM »
It seems most likely that the self-driving tech will probably start out being used in commercial vehicles, and then eventually spread to private cars later.

I've long been of the opinion that one of the first markets that autonomous vehicles will spread into, and the first set of workers to be dispossessed of their jobs because of it, is long-haul trucking.
Self-described nerd.

Offline John Albert

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7738
  • Coincidence theorist
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1654 on: February 23, 2020, 11:06:30 PM »
Exactly.

Offline phooey

  • Keeps Priorities Straight
  • ***
  • Posts: 391
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1655 on: February 24, 2020, 12:00:58 AM »
Phooey stresses three different points, one of which is legitimate, and the other two of which (IMO) are not:



2. He asserts that cars should never be allowed to drive themselves because self-driving cars will sometimes kill people. He seems to feel that somehow it is morally unacceptable to allow robots to drive cars if they kill people, even if they replace human drivers who kill more people. And this is a view I find unacceptable:

3. He thinks we cannot have self-driving cars because, in his view, it would be impossible to insure them.



2-Never said that, categorically untrue.

3-Never said that either. 


You haven't stated my positions correctly at all.  I have written plenty, and I have never said any of those things you claim I have. 

Offline phooey

  • Keeps Priorities Straight
  • ***
  • Posts: 391
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1656 on: February 24, 2020, 12:03:59 AM »
Exactly.

In how many years will there be big rig trucks with no driver in them at all, or where the driver is allowed to sleep during the drive? 

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9753
  • Observer of Phenomena. Pronouns: he/him
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1657 on: February 24, 2020, 12:09:35 AM »
Exactly.

In how many years will there be big rig trucks with no driver in them at all, or where the driver is allowed to sleep during the drive?

You're asking us to predict the future again, phooey. None of us know how long it will take. Putting a number on it, we now know, will merely allow you to gloat condescendingly again when we get it wrong. I can't speak for anyone else, but I have no interest in that.
Self-described nerd.

Offline John Albert

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7738
  • Coincidence theorist
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1658 on: February 24, 2020, 12:11:18 AM »
In how many years will there be big rig trucks with no driver in them at all, or where the driver is allowed to sleep during the drive?

As I pointed out before, test models are on the road right now in some markets.

As for when they'll begin to actually displace professional OTR drivers, I don't feel comfortable making that prediction now. Maybe by the end of the decade?

My point is that the way things are looking now, the transportation industry is where most of the development money is coming from.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 05:17:20 AM by John Albert »

Offline Alex Simmons

  • Well Established
  • *****
  • Posts: 1128
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1659 on: February 24, 2020, 01:51:10 AM »
In how many years will there be big rig trucks with no driver in them at all, or where the driver is allowed to sleep during the drive?

As I pointed out before, test models are on the road right now in some markets.

As for when they'll begin to actually displace professional drivers, I don't feel comfortable making that prediction now. Maybe by the end of the decade?

My point is that the way things are looking now, the transportation industry is where most of the development money is coming from.

Autonomous haulage dump trucks are already deployed in large mine sites in Australia and have replaced drivers for some time. Rio Tinto has 80 such vehicles in operation and is about to add 140 more. The safety record is impressive. Zero fatalities. Between years 2000-2017 there were 16 mining truck fatalities at Westerns Australian mines.

Consider the long hours these things operate and the large reduction in the driver pool required and associated salaries. The reduction in training, the reduction of fly in / fly out and accommodation costs. And of course the trucks no longer need to be concerned about shifts and max driving hours per driver etc. The automated drivers never get tired.

Mine sites are not public roads but they are not benign environments either with dynamically changing sites and conditions. You don't mess about with a 400 tonne dump truck.

A study was conducted into WA mining truck incidents, here's a table on primary causes over the two year period 2015-2016:



Note how many are due to the fallibility of the human in charge of the vehicle.
http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/Documents/Safety/MSH_R_VehicleCollisions.pdf
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 01:57:02 AM by Alex Simmons »

Offline phooey

  • Keeps Priorities Straight
  • ***
  • Posts: 391
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1660 on: February 24, 2020, 05:21:00 AM »
Well, I have maintained all along that I don't think steering a car with a computer and making it brake is the challenge in self-driving vehicles at all.  Yea, I think they could have already done this twenty years ago (they probably did).  I am sure driverless cars can go around race track just fine, they probably could beat a human in a time trial-if there were no humans driving at the same time. 

But alas, to me that is not really the issue.  That is still world away from sending a truck out, into multi-purpose, ever changing environments, with other human drivers, exit ramps, entrance ramps, high speeds, motorbikes, animals, debris, construction zones, other accidents, broken down cars, .... And that is just on the highways.  When you get into the cities?  Nope, not yet. 

Imagine being the first company without a driver on board, whose tractor trailer runs completely over a family of five, or a bunch of kids going to a soccer game. Do you really believe that saying, "Well, you know, human controlled trucks also run over kids, what are you complaining about?", will go over well? 

Offline John Albert

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7738
  • Coincidence theorist
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1661 on: February 24, 2020, 05:33:04 AM »
Self-driving trucks are already being tested on the roads in several US cities.

Offline phooey

  • Keeps Priorities Straight
  • ***
  • Posts: 391
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1662 on: February 24, 2020, 06:57:03 AM »
Yea, they are testing them.  They have been testing them for a long time.  They are at level 2 at best.  Not even close to be autonomous.  They aren't going to be unmanned anytime soon.  Like I said, its not too hard making a self-driving car run around a race track. 

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9753
  • Observer of Phenomena. Pronouns: he/him
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1663 on: February 24, 2020, 05:09:56 PM »
Yea, they are testing them.  They have been testing them for a long time.  They are at level 2 at best.  Not even close to be autonomous.  They aren't going to be unmanned anytime soon.  Like I said, its not too hard making a self-driving car run around a race track.

I don't know about you, but I'd prefer they spend plenty of time testing. Wouldn't want to rush something like this.
Self-described nerd.

Offline John Albert

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7738
  • Coincidence theorist
    • View Profile
Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #1664 on: February 24, 2020, 05:28:32 PM »
They are at level 2 at best.  Not even close to be autonomous.

Do you have evidence to back up this claim?

From what I've read the vehicles being tested seem to be somewhere between levels 3 and 4.


Like I said, its not too hard making a self-driving car run around a race track.

These aren't being tested on a race track. As I mentioned before (and provided links to back up), they're being tested on actual city streets.


I'd prefer they spend plenty of time testing. Wouldn't want to rush something like this.

Absolutely!