Author Topic: Tesla Model 3  (Read 4734 times)

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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #30 on: April 05, 2016, 09:52:07 AM »
This week's "This Week In Tech" has as the lead topic a quite comprehensive discussion on the new Tesla.

https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech/episodes/556?autostart=false

Thanks for posting that. Very good discussion about the Tesla Model 3 and EVs in general. (I only watched the first 40 minutes. After that they went on to other subjects.)

I stand corrected on my earlier statement that there would be a speedometer on the dash. I would definitely pay for a heads-up display of speed. I also have misgivings about the glass roof. That will be very hot in summer and less durable (?) than a standard roof. I really like that I can take the top off my Roadster, or I can put on the aftermarket mesh top (constructed for the Lotus Elise, and fits the Roadster).

I agree with the notion that by reserving a Model 3 I am helping Tesla stay on track to advance EV penetration into the market. I strongly believe they will succeed, but if they fail and I were to lose my $1,000 I'd still feel that it was worth it to have supported the attempt. Actually, when I bought my Roadster, I knew there was a risk they would go bust (this was before the big Federal loan, which, BTW, they paid back with interest ahead of schedule) and I could have been left with a car and no way to get it serviced or repaired. I felt the risk was worth it to be able to drive electric.

I was very gratified by the positive attitude on the show. Quite a contrast from when Top Gear tested the Roadster and then LIED about it running out of charge, and in their own defense, said that the show was entertainment (read: fiction) and never intended to be factual.

The Model 3 will be bigger than my ideal car. And I dislike the sedan body style. I prefer a liftback for the cargo space and flexibility. But I want the safety and autopilot features, and a Model S is entirely too big for me.

As for the Chevy Bolt vs Tesla: Yes, Chevy has a nationwide system of dealers and service centers, but given GM's history, I wouldn't trust a Bolt as far as I could throw it. Tesla has been having problems with the Model X, and the local Tesla mechanic here in Spokane was called in to Freemont for two weeks because they needed as many of their mechanics as they could get to work on fixing the problems. But the difference between GM and Tesla is that Tesla is committed to quality and will put everything it has into fixing the problem and making sure the cars are good, whereas GM doesn't give a rat's ass about its customers and will happily sell you a death trap if the profit from selling you the car is greater than the cost of the wrongful death lawsuit when the car kills you. Yeah, I still despise GM for crushing the EV-1.
Daniel
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Offline teethering

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #31 on: April 05, 2016, 07:49:27 PM »
I'm a little worried that a Model 3's official price tag is for a version of the car that basically you really wouldn't want and the one you actually would buy is closer to something like $50k.

Ugh, either way I'm not buying any car until my 2012 Camry Hybrid loses a lot of value and I don't see that happening for years and years.  But me wantee :(

Offline Calinthalus

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #32 on: April 05, 2016, 08:11:44 PM »
I'm a little worried that a Model 3's official price tag is for a version of the car that basically you really wouldn't want and the one you actually would buy is closer to something like $50k.

Ugh, either way I'm not buying any car until my 2012 Camry Hybrid loses a lot of value and I don't see that happening for years and years.  But me wantee :(


Is that really any different than any other car on the market?  I mean, you go price out a Camry that starts at 23k and start building on their website (adding hybrid and packages and whatnot) and the price gets over 35k pretty fast.
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Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #33 on: April 05, 2016, 09:45:41 PM »
I'm a little worried that a Model 3's official price tag is for a version of the car that basically you really wouldn't want and the one you actually would buy is closer to something like $50k.

I think on the podcast I referenced earlier it was stated the average out-the-door price of the Model 3 was expected to be around $43k.

Offline Calinthalus

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2016, 05:47:14 AM »
I'm a little worried that a Model 3's official price tag is for a version of the car that basically you really wouldn't want and the one you actually would buy is closer to something like $50k.

I think on the podcast I referenced earlier it was stated the average out-the-door price of the Model 3 was expected to be around $43k.
We'll have to see on that.  The S climbs in price pretty quickly when I go to build one on their site.  Of course, it starts from way outside my range in the first place so...maybe it's just me.  They are specifically trying to put the Model 3 to just barely in my price range as a middle class guy in middle America.  It might have lower add-on caps.
"I think computer viruses should count as life. Maybe it says something about human nature, that the only form of life we have created so far is purely destructive. Talk about creating life in our own image."
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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #35 on: April 06, 2016, 10:28:19 AM »
I'm a little worried that a Model 3's official price tag is for a version of the car that basically you really wouldn't want and the one you actually would buy is closer to something like $50k.

Ugh, either way I'm not buying any car until my 2012 Camry Hybrid loses a lot of value and I don't see that happening for years and years.  But me wantee :(

I think $50K might be reasonable for a fully-loaded Model 3, which is what I plan on buying. However, the base model at $35K will be a fabulous car and will compete extremely well with other cars in the same price range.

A couple of years ago I got a PM from a guy who had a Tesla Model S, looking for a charging spot here. He was too far out of town to make the round trip and wanted to assure himself of a charging opportunity. I offered him my plug, so I got to see and briefly drive his Model S. He bought the bare-bones version, though he did have the larger pack size. It was an absolutely fabulous car. Much too big for me, but with no options at all, other than the pack size which is just a matter of what range you need, it was still a great car and he was 100% delighted with it.

The Model 3 will delight owners even with no options at all. But most people will want the options. But that's true with all cars: The options are nice to have; you have to decide how much you will spend. I suspect that Tesla is underestimating how much the "average" driver will pile on the options, but nothing really necessary will be an option. For example, all the safety features will be standard. With my Prius, I had to pay extra to get side air bags.
Daniel
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Offline NEKSkeptic

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #36 on: July 06, 2017, 02:15:02 PM »
Tesla stock has had a rough few days.  There are some storm clouds on the horizon. 

This is worth a read:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4085784-tesla-story-becoming-increasingly-fantastic-business-model-falls-apart

I genuinely believe that Elon Musk is a visionary, but lots of visionaries have struggled with their business ventures.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 02:17:39 PM by NEKSkeptic »

Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #37 on: July 06, 2017, 04:08:05 PM »
I don't know if I mentioned this upthread, but we have 100 shares of TSLA, with an average basis around $217.

Definitely a "flyer", but the hope is that we can nurse our 2005 Element, coming up on 190,000 miles, along long enough for the Model 3 to be available, and we could finance the purchase by selling the stock.

But a lot of stars would have to align and we're not holding our breaths. If and when the wheels fall off the Element, we'll have to shop around for an electric or hybrid that's currently on the market when that happens.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #38 on: July 06, 2017, 04:18:43 PM »
Wow! Horrible! TSLA has gone down to 300! They're gonna fail. Nobody's buying Tesla cars.

The article ends by recommending that people short TSLA. A certain category of pundits have been recommending shorting TSLA since the company was founded, and gullible investors have been losing money by shorting TSLA for just as long. 400,000 people have been chomping at the bit to buy the Tesla Model 3 (having put down a $1,000 deposit each) and this clown thinks that the company is going down the tubes.

The article is a hatchet job that cherry-picks a few facts that seem to support its thesis. It's complete bullshit. And it's nothing new. Articles predicting Tesla's demise and recommending shorting the stock are as old as the company itself. Drive a Tesla for yourself. They really have invented a better mousetrap.

That said, I would not recommend putting all your money in TSLA, just as I would not recommend putting all your money in any one company. One never knows what will happen. Maybe next year Toyota will get serious and put real resources into competing with Tesla.

Daniel
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Offline NEKSkeptic

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #39 on: July 06, 2017, 04:20:39 PM »
The article ends by recommending that people short TSLA.

To be fair, if you followed their advice when the article was published, you would have already made a nice profit from shorting the stock.

Even the most prudent investor acknowledges that a LOT had to go just right to justify Tesla's price when it had a market cap greater than Ford.  At that price, it was an extremely risky investment.  It is no surprise to me that we are beginning to see a correction.

If you have data showing that the article's conclusions are incorrect, I am all ears.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 04:23:18 PM by NEKSkeptic »

Offline The Latinist

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #40 on: July 06, 2017, 05:32:26 PM »
Yeah, Tesla was (and probably still is) significantly overvalued.
I would like to propose...that...it is undesirable to believe in a proposition when there is no ground whatever for supposing it true. — Bertrand Russell

Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #41 on: July 06, 2017, 05:48:53 PM »
Yeah, Tesla was (and probably still is) significantly overvalued.

What determines it's "actual" value?

Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #42 on: July 06, 2017, 05:53:54 PM »

The article is a hatchet job that cherry-picks a few facts that seem to support its thesis. It's complete bullshit. And it's nothing new. Articles predicting Tesla's demise and recommending shorting the stock are as old as the company itself.

Substitute "Apple" for "Tesla", and it all has a very familiar ring.

Offline The Latinist

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #43 on: July 06, 2017, 06:02:08 PM »
Yeah, Tesla was (and probably still is) significantly overvalued.

What determines it's "actual" value?

We had this discussion before.  I won't rehash it.
I would like to propose...that...it is undesirable to believe in a proposition when there is no ground whatever for supposing it true. — Bertrand Russell

Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Tesla Model 3
« Reply #44 on: July 06, 2017, 06:05:03 PM »

We had this discussion before.  I won't rehash it.

Deal.