Author Topic: Drone delivery hype  (Read 4935 times)

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Offline PatrickG

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #45 on: January 20, 2017, 10:01:57 AM »
If Amazon would deliver something, anything to me via drone, I would order it right now just because it's fucking awesome. If someone would deliver me a pizza via drone I would be even more happy, if you can imagine that.   :laugh:
Agree its cool. For my kids I delivered the christmas presents using a large scale model train that ran around the house. Cool, but very fragile and limited to small stuff that fits in a boxcar.

I could imagine starting a 'drone surprise present' business out of the trunk of my car. For $250 (the same as a home repair service fee) I will surprise your spouse with a backyard delivery of a small present. Could probably do 4 per day. No autonomous flying is required.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #46 on: January 20, 2017, 05:23:41 PM »
If Amazon would deliver something, anything to me via drone, I would order it right now just because it's fucking awesome. If someone would deliver me a pizza via drone I would be even more happy, if you can imagine that.   :laugh:
Agree its cool. For my kids I delivered the christmas presents using a large scale model train that ran around the house. Cool, but very fragile and limited to small stuff that fits in a boxcar.

I could imagine starting a 'drone surprise present' business out of the trunk of my car. For $250 (the same as a home repair service fee) I will surprise your spouse with a backyard delivery of a small present. Could probably do 4 per day. No autonomous flying is required.

In wealthier neighborhoods with big yards this would probably go over, at least until the novelty wears off. Not sure about charging $250. That might work for the super-wealthy. I think $100 would be more successful. But if you got enough orders you could probably do 10 or 20 a day. As a novelty service, you would not have to fly far at all. Maybe take off a block away. Acquiring the gift items would probably take more of your time than the actual deliveries, if you can get enough orders in a small enough area.

If Amazon would deliver something, anything to me via drone, I would order it right now just because it's fucking awesome. If someone would deliver me a pizza via drone I would be even more happy, if you can imagine that.   :laugh:

Didn't I read somewhere (maybe in this thread?) that Dominos was starting a pizza delivery service by drone? But I prefer mom & pop restaurants over big chains.

Here's an idea: Set up a company that would pick up and deliver food from local restaurants by drone. There are already companies that do this, but the novelty would be the drone. Since you'd have to stay within line of sight (in the absence of autonomous drones for now) it would be no faster than delivery by car. But the novelty would be cool.
Daniel
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Offline PatrickG

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Drone delivery hype
« Reply #47 on: December 09, 2018, 10:15:26 AM »
What happened to Amazon “Prime Air” Drone Delivery?

It is now two years after the last video and the start of this thread. Not a single piece of information from Amazon. Why didn’t this take off? Amazon claimed a commercial delivery in 2016. That was “technical quackery”. 
« Last Edit: December 09, 2018, 10:19:14 AM by PatrickG »

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #48 on: December 09, 2018, 12:58:29 PM »
I suspect a combination of regulatory difficulties and lack of demand: Too few people willing to pay to get a delivery a few hours faster. Note that if you are within drone distance of a fulfillment center, you can already get same-day delivery by truck. There was probably a team within Amazon that thought this would be a good idea, and then more sensible heads shut it down. And I see no reason Amazon would have wanted to advertise that they had a bad idea and then dropped it.

Considering weight limitations, size limitations, distance limitations, small demand, and the very small marginal advantage over trucks, drone delivery service was probably destined to go nowhere. I think the biggest issue would be that they just don’t provide enough of an advantage over trucks.

Yesterday I was out in a canoe on the water off of Kihei, Maui, HI, when I heard a buzzing sound. I looked up and a drone flew over us.
Daniel
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Online Harry Black

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #49 on: December 09, 2018, 02:31:00 PM »
Im sure the initial announcements were great for Amazon stock though.

Offline bimble

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #50 on: December 09, 2018, 05:09:06 PM »
I did read (today in fact) a Moose Cree First Nation island that has signed a deal to received goods by drone whilst the access by boat/ice road isn't possible, starting next year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46500367

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #51 on: December 09, 2018, 05:57:12 PM »
Im sure the initial announcements were great for Amazon stock though.

I doubt it made that much of a difference. Anybody who cared could find the charts and compare Amazon’s stock to that of the S&P 500 and to other retail companies at the time of the announcement. I don’t care enough to bother.
Daniel
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Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #52 on: December 09, 2018, 06:43:08 PM »
I did read (today in fact) a Moose Cree First Nation island that has signed a deal to received goods by drone whilst the access by boat/ice road isn't possible, starting next year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46500367

Damn, this is a really cool and really great use-case. 
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Offline Noisy Rhysling

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #53 on: December 10, 2018, 07:28:27 AM »
I did read (today in fact) a Moose Cree First Nation island that has signed a deal to received goods by drone whilst the access by boat/ice road isn't possible, starting next year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46500367

Damn, this is a really cool and really great use-case.
"Your delivery has been delayed due to the fact that this is CANADA AND ITS WINTER. We regret any inconvenience this has caused you."
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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #54 on: December 10, 2018, 09:43:35 AM »
I did read (today in fact) a Moose Cree First Nation island that has signed a deal to received goods by drone whilst the access by boat/ice road isn't possible, starting next year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46500367

It’s much cheaper by the hour than a helicopter. But I’ll bet it’s much more expensive per pound of cargo delivered. So a drone is the clear choice for monitoring the river break-up or delivering small urgent packages like medicines. A helicopter is probably still the better choice for scheduled deliveries that can be delivered in large quantities, like most of what people buy regularly in stores.
Daniel
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Offline PatrickG

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #55 on: December 10, 2018, 10:00:04 AM »
I own a DJI mavic pro: it is fantastic. Based on that I see a few great applications for drones. On the dark side drones will likely revolutionize oppressive surveillance, military battles and terrorism (e.g. as flying autonomous hand grenades).

Still... packet delivery likely won’t be the sweet spot of drones. The ‘two years of crickets’ following the Amazon Prime Air ‘delivery’ show that the drone work was not even close to operational at that time.

There are many reasons why drone delivery will remain a niche application. The main one is the limited advantage over regular road-based delivery, combined with many physical limitations.

Ordering a domino’s pizza gets it delivered home in 30 minutes: rain or shine, over a larger distance than a drone can travel, and for less than $5. The logistics of many small prime air bases that only carry tiny packages would be immense. On top of that drones will never be able to deliver to apartments or townhouses, nor will they be able to deliver >90% of the stuff you regularly buy at Amazon, even if you have a landing spot in the back yard.

There is no universe where Prime Air will make sense. Jeff Bezos is wickedly clever so he knows that. Amazon knowingly produced this fake news, carefully timing it to create free publicity during the Christmas buying season.
How come so few called Amazon out out on this in 2016? The window to call out is at the moment the fake news comes out, not 2 years later. The Russian election meddling is good example of this.

Offline Noisy Rhysling

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #56 on: December 10, 2018, 10:42:20 AM »
The Amazon drones can deliver one package of limited weight, right? I ask because I recently saw a "drone" that carried a human. Looked like fun, but took about 80 drone motors. I immediately thought of rescue drones. The rig looked like four large hula hoops with motors suspended inside the circle.
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Offline bimble

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #57 on: December 10, 2018, 11:48:16 AM »
I did read (today in fact) a Moose Cree First Nation island that has signed a deal to received goods by drone whilst the access by boat/ice road isn't possible, starting next year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46500367

It’s much cheaper by the hour than a helicopter. But I’ll bet it’s much more expensive per pound of cargo delivered. So a drone is the clear choice for monitoring the river break-up or delivering small urgent packages like medicines. A helicopter is probably still the better choice for scheduled deliveries that can be delivered in large quantities, like most of what people buy regularly in stores.

The article did say there was a 5kg (11lb) limit on loads, but the fact that a deal has been signed (C$2.5m) suggests that it's for lighter deliveries like medicine and mail, until access is possible for either boats (summer) or trucks (winter)

Offline PatrickG

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Drone delivery hype
« Reply #58 on: June 13, 2019, 10:45:38 AM »
Two and a half after the supposedly first commercial drone delivery Amazon has finally broken the silence. They are back in the news with yet another drone design. This time it is using AI:



The first deliveries are expected ‘within months’. This time for reals? Color me skeptical...

Why does Amazon add the disclaimer “actual autonomous flight footage, NOT SIMULATED” to the video? I think it means that that the ‘first customer drone delivery’ in 2016 ( ) was faked using actors. It was put out to get free publicity before the Christmas shopping season.

Will it be ready for prime time this time?

See:
https://www.apnews.com/91506a8d547a4c48be3cc7c6e357bc1c
https://www.technologyreview.com/f/613638/the-latest-prime-air-drone-delivers-packages-more-efficiently-and-safely/
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 10:48:58 AM by PatrickG »

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Drone delivery hype
« Reply #59 on: June 13, 2019, 04:10:16 PM »
The video says they have two customers. It also suggests buying dog treats this way. Who needs 30-minute delivery of dog treats? Their earlier hype featured a parent getting their kid athletic shoes in time for a game or race or something. That I can understand. Your kid is important to you. If they need shoes NOW for a big event, yeah, pay the premium shipping to get them in 30 minutes. But dog treats? Your dog would probably rather have table scraps in a pinch if you run out of dog treats.

BTW, on my way here I spent the night in Seattle and realized I had forgotten my iPad charger. Apple sent it to me by courier. Two-hour delivery. No drone needed. Okay, so 30 minutes is faster, but it will be a while before they get permission to run automated delivery drones in a big city.
Daniel
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"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."
-- Otto von Bismarck

 

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