Author Topic: Climate Change Catchment Thread  (Read 26820 times)

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Offline 2397

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #420 on: March 05, 2019, 05:00:22 PM »
They may have been overly optimistic, and things are going to be worse than the earlier predictions because it was assumed that we would've at least done something about it. Instead we're polluting 65.6% more than the 1990 value we needed to go significantly below.

https://web.archive.org/web/20121210151654/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-3-3-3.html

Quote
Under regime designs for low and medium concentration stabilization levels (i.e. 450 and 550 ppm CO2-eq, category A and B; see Chapter 3, Table 3.10) GHG emissions from developed countries would need to be reduced substantially during this century. For low and medium stabilization levels, developed countries as a group would need to reduce their emissions to below 1990 levels in 2020 (on the order of –10% to 40% below 1990 levels for most of the considered regimes) and to still lower levels by 2050 (40% to 95% below 1990 levels), even if developing countries make substantial reductions. The reduction percentages for individual countries vary between different regime designs and parameter settings and may be outside of this range. For high stabilization levels, reductions would have to occur, but at a later date (see Box 13.7).
« Last Edit: March 05, 2019, 05:03:18 PM by 2397 »

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #421 on: March 13, 2019, 10:17:22 PM »
Article: Sharp rise in Arctic temperatures now inevitable – UN
From: The Guardian
date: 2019 MAR 13

Quote
Sharp and potentially devastating temperature rises of 3C to 5C in the Arctic are now inevitable even if the world succeeds in cutting greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement, research has found.

Winter temperatures at the north pole are likely to rise by at least 3C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, and there could be further rises to between 5C and 9C above the recent average for the region, according to the UN.

Such changes would result in rapidly melting ice and permafrost, leading to sea level rises and potentially to even more destructive levels of warming. Scientists fear Arctic heating could trigger a climate “tipping point” as melting permafrost releases the powerful greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere, which in turn could create a runaway warming effect.

...

Personally, I'm looking forward to poorly understood, panic-driven geoengineering programs.  Should be a hell of a thing to watch.
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #422 on: March 15, 2019, 02:19:38 PM »
Steve is optimistic:

Quote from: Steven Novella
What is often frustrating is that we actually have the technology right now to do what we need to do. All we really need is the political will. Build more nuclear plants, expand renewable energy, update the grid and add more storage, create incentives for greater efficiency and electric vehicles, and don’t let industry externalize the costs of pollution.

All of this is going to happen anyway. These are the technologies of the future. We might as well try to get ahead of the curve and become leaders rather than followers. Our economy will actually benefit from taking this path, and it is extremely cost effective to mitigate climate change rather than pay for the consequences. Really, it’s just political stubbornness at this point, and an industry that does not want to adapt.

The cancer is already advanced, but is not yet terminal. Now is the time to act.

I don't know if I should be optimistic or pessimistic.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #423 on: March 15, 2019, 03:01:23 PM »
I pretty much agree with this:
Quote
What is often frustrating is that we actually have the technology right now to do what we need to do. All we really need is the political will.

We're currently the civilizational equivalent of a splurge, so, forfeiting the benefits of living over-budget aside...  If we manage a hairpin turn then we can continue progressing fairly unimpeded.  Civilization's inputs and outputs will just be a little more responsible is all. *

But that doesn't comport to the realpolitik of our age so I'm pessimistic.

The developing world and some of the developed is already on-track for significant pain.  Can't be avoided.

But if we're still fucking it up super hard in the 2030s, that's when I'll be talking like this guy because we'll be buffaloed planet-wide:




edit: * I just realized how consumerist a thing this is to say.  Why aren't I already including, "becoming sustainable," in my baseline perception of what progress looks like? 
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 03:15:40 PM by Soldier of FORTRAN »
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline 2397

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #424 on: March 15, 2019, 04:24:55 PM »
It's definitely solvable. It's not about engineering challenges, it's not about lack of knowledge or having enough skilled workers. It's about humans with power who deliberately prevent action on climate change, and who manage to deceive hundreds of millions of people into supporting them.

Online CarbShark

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #425 on: March 15, 2019, 04:42:55 PM »
It's definitely solvable. It's not about engineering challenges, it's not about lack of knowledge or having enough skilled workers. It's about humans with power who deliberately prevent action on climate change, and who manage to deceive hundreds of millions of people into supporting them.

It's getting to the point where it will be a major engineering challenge, etc. Once we get past a tipping point (significantly reduced ice cover in the arctic and antarctic, for example) we're cooked. (literally)

Acting fast enough to prevent that, even with a broad consensus on the issue among political an economic leaders, would still be a significant challenge.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #426 on: March 15, 2019, 05:17:30 PM »
It's about humans with power who deliberately prevent action on climate change, and who manage to deceive hundreds of millions of people into supporting them.

Yeah, I tend to interpret that this way:

Avoiding the worst is mutually exclusive with the status quo.

Our 'capitalist-industrialist' M.O. banks on externalities and unsustainability to such a degree as to burn away its environmental preconditions.  We're seeing this via greenhouse gas emissions leading to climate change.  We're seeing this via intensive agriculture leading to global insect loss and topsoil depletion.  We're suffusing the environment with plastic and that'll probably reach a critical mass, do something.  (I also saw an article recently about thiamine deficiency in wildlife, worldwide.  What's going on there?)

If we tighten up the system, that'd mean eliminating an enormous amount of wealth.  And that's not going to happen without some Deus Ex Machine fantasy coming to life. *

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« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 05:19:44 PM by Soldier of FORTRAN »
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #427 on: March 17, 2019, 03:20:29 AM »
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline lonely moa

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"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #429 on: March 17, 2019, 03:33:55 PM »
Quote
Here's Carl Sagan's original essay on the dangers of climate change

Ballantine has issued a shiny new edition of Sagan's book Cosmos, with a foreword from Cosmos reboot host Neil deGrasse Tyson. We've got an excerpt, which reveals how deeply Sagan was concerned about climate change in 1980 when the book was originally published.

...

Our lovely blue planet, the Earth, is the only home we know. Venus is too hot. Mars is too cold. But the Earth is just right, a heaven for humans. After all, we evolved here. But our congenial climate may be unstable. We are perturbing our poor planet in serious and contradictory ways. Is there any danger of driving the environment of the Earth toward the planetary Hell of Venus or the global ice age of Mars? The simple answer is that nobody knows. The study of the global climate, the comparison of the Earth with other worlds, are subjects in their earliest stages of development. They are fields that are poorly and grudgingly funded. In our ignorance, we continue to push and pull, to pollute the atmosphere and brighten the land, oblivious of the fact that the long-term consequences are largely unknown.

He was worried about it back in 1980? I wonder what he would have thought about our current state of affairs, had he still been alive today.

Offline lonely moa

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #430 on: March 18, 2019, 01:28:21 PM »
Quote
Here's Carl Sagan's original essay on the dangers of climate change

Ballantine has issued a shiny new edition of Sagan's book Cosmos, with a foreword from Cosmos reboot host Neil deGrasse Tyson. We've got an excerpt, which reveals how deeply Sagan was concerned about climate change in 1980 when the book was originally published.

...

Our lovely blue planet, the Earth, is the only home we know. Venus is too hot. Mars is too cold. But the Earth is just right, a heaven for humans. After all, we evolved here. But our congenial climate may be unstable. We are perturbing our poor planet in serious and contradictory ways. Is there any danger of driving the environment of the Earth toward the planetary Hell of Venus or the global ice age of Mars? The simple answer is that nobody knows. The study of the global climate, the comparison of the Earth with other worlds, are subjects in their earliest stages of development. They are fields that are poorly and grudgingly funded. In our ignorance, we continue to push and pull, to pollute the atmosphere and brighten the land, oblivious of the fact that the long-term consequences are largely unknown.

He was worried about it back in 1980? I wonder what he would have thought about our current state of affairs, had he still been alive today.

He would be standing next to David Attenborough.
"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #431 on: March 19, 2019, 01:11:49 PM »
Article: Climate change: Water shortages in England 'within 25 years'
From: BBC
Date: 2019 MAR 19

Quote
The impact of climate change, combined with population growth, means the country is facing an "existential threat", Sir James Bevan told the Waterwise Conference in London.

He wants to see wasting water become "as socially unacceptable as blowing smoke in the face of a baby".

"We all need to use less water and use it more efficiently," he said.


Sir James Bevan was appointed chief executive of the Environment Agency - the public body responsible for protecting the environment and wildlife in England - in 2015 after a career as a diplomat.

He told his audience that, in around 20 to 25 years, England would reach the "jaws of death - the point at which, unless we take action to change things, we will not have enough water to supply our needs".

...

That's some stern rhetoric. 
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline 2397

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #432 on: March 19, 2019, 04:10:01 PM »
Of course the way to deal with it is to make it out like everyone's equally to blame for wasting water, taking attention away from water-intensive industries and rich families who spend a thousand times the resources of others. No mention of fracking, which both uses a lot of water and could lead to the contamination of more.

Fixing water leakage probably dwarfs most of the other points made in that article. More than 50 liters per day per person in England and Wales.

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2017/12/water-leakage-from-uk-pipes-rises-to-over-three-billion-litres-a-day/

Not watering lawns is at least a good point. If there's not enough precipitation for it to grow on its own, it's not worth spending resources on it. But are low pressure showers really that much of a help? Or maybe I'm assuming the opposite implication, and what's meant is that you should make sure there's enough pressure so that you don't have to spend much longer in the shower.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2019, 04:13:22 PM by 2397 »

Offline werecow

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #433 on: March 19, 2019, 04:35:52 PM »
I'm all for conserving drinking water, but I've been wondering for a while now why we don't put more effort into fixing the existing problems with desalinization. I mean, they're talking about water shortages here in NL too, since last summer was so dry, and half the country is below or at sea level and there are tons of streams and rivers and fresh water lakes all over the place. And Britain is an island ffs. It's not like these places are in the middle of the desert. Neither of them are known for their dry climate (there seems to be a small competition over who has the worst weather). And they're not poor. I know it's more energetically intensive and therefore more expensive, but... what horrifying aspect of this technology am I missing?
Mooohn!

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #434 on: March 19, 2019, 05:31:10 PM »
what horrifying aspect of this technology am I missing?

Good question.  My understanding is that the challenge is always cost (energy and financial), sometimes also ecological impact from the high salinity output.  Maybe cost & impact constrains scalability?

Gonna have to take a look for desalination-related conference talks later. 

I'd like to know more about:
  • State of R&D
  • Scalability
  • Cost, especially wrt economies of scale
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

 

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