Author Topic: Climate Change Catchment Thread  (Read 47360 times)

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Offline werecow

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #555 on: May 23, 2019, 07:32:04 AM »
Also I've had some discussions with people who were genuinely interested in the science but were fearful of the political repercussions, just did not have much of a skeptisense or science background, and were simply mislead by people like Watts and McIntyre. They were distrustful of greenpeace and other advocate groups (and frankly, not without good reason) and felt like they were branded deniers just to take away from the legitimacy of their concerns. I kind of get that, given that I was frequently called a "commie satanist nazi" (paraphrasing) for discussing topics like climate change, atheism and evolution.
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #556 on: May 24, 2019, 04:28:57 PM »
Quote
'We have to learn to live with fire': How wildfires are changing Canadian summers

2.5 million hectares of land is charred every year, an expert predicts that will double

A change in weather patterns, stoked by climate change, has a wildfire expert predicting "a hot, smoky future" for Canadian summers.

The spectre of wildfires looms in B.C., Alberta and Ontario — provinces that have been repeatedly scorched by catastrophic fires in recent years.

Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta, is warning that a dramatic rise in temperature and a changing climate have pushed things over the edge and will continue to cause unprecedented wildfires.

"We can't always rely on our experience and the history of what we've seen in fire; we're moving into new territory," he told CBC Radio's special Smoked Out.

An average of about 2.5 million hectares of land is charred every year during Canada's annual wildfire season, he says.

"That's half the size of Nova Scotia, and it's doubled since the early '70s due to our changing climate," said Flannigan, who's also the director of the Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science in Edmonton.
Climate change's role in reshaping wildfires

His research suggests the size of land consumed by wildfires will double or quadruple — again — as the earth heats up.

According to Natural Resources Canada, about 3.4 million hectares of land was consumed by wildfires in 2017 — well beyond the annual average. Ministry data shows in recent years fire destruction has steadily climbed in terms of area covered.

In 2013, for example, some 6,300 forest fires burned over 4.2 million hectares. The following year, nearly 4.6 million hectares was scorched by about 5,200 wildfires.



Canada makes up nine per cent of the world's forests, yet much of that landscape is being threatened by unprecedented wildfires. (Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press)

"We have to learn to live with fire, coexist with fire, because fire is not going to disappear," Flannigan said.

"There will always be fuel to burn, there will always be ignitions and there will always be conducive weather."

Canada is, on average, experiencing warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world, according to Canada's Changing Climate Report.

The study, commissioned by Environment and Climate Change Canada and released last month, found that Canada's annual average temperature over land has warmed 1.7 C since 1948 — with higher rates seen in the North, the Prairies and northern B.C.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #557 on: May 25, 2019, 02:16:16 PM »
Where I live, both the political left and the political right accept climate change, and that we must work against it. In June 2017, the parliament voted through The Swedish climate
policy framework
. Of the parliament's eight parties, all except the far-right Sweden Democrats voted for it.

Some of its contents:

Quote
By 2045, Sweden is to have zero net emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and should thereafter achieve negative emissions. Negative emissions will mean that Sweden overall helps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. That is, the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by Sweden is less than the amount of greenhouse gases reduced through the natural ecocycle, or through climate projects pursued by Sweden abroad. However, emissions from activities in Sweden must be at least 85 per cent lower than in 1990. Based on current population forecasts for Sweden, this means that emissions in Sweden will be less than one tonne per person by 2045.

Quote
As for the goal of zero net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2045, it will also be possible to achieve parts of these goals by 2030 and 2040 through supplementary measures, such as increased uptake of carbon dioxide by forests or investments in various climate projects abroad. Such measures may be used to achieve a maximum of 8 and 2 percentage points, respectively, of the emission reduction goals by 2030 and 2040. That is, by 2030 emissions from activities in Sweden should be at least 55 per cent lower than in 1990, and by 2040 at least 73 per cent lower than in 1990.

Quote
The third pillar of the framework is a climate policy council. The climate policy council will be tasked with supporting the Government by providing an independent assessment of how the overall policy presented by the Government is compatible with the climate goals. The council will evaluate whether the direction of various policy areas will increase or reduce the likelihood of achieving the climate goals.

My questions are:

1. Is this realistic?

2. Is it enough?
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Online 2397

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #558 on: May 25, 2019, 05:12:30 PM »
Realistic for relatively wealthy and less populated Sweden, yes. Enough, if the whole world does it, maybe.

Net zero by 2045 is late. We could've already passed 2°C warming by then (given that we're currently polluting more than expected), and the permafrost thawing could drive climate change further all on its own.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #559 on: May 28, 2019, 02:04:49 PM »
There's always more and it's always worse.

Article: Trump administration orders government agency to stop predicting long-term climate change impacts
From: Independent
Date: 2019 MAY 28

Quote
The Trump administration has told a major US government department to end predicting what the long-term effects of climate change will be on the country.

Director of the US Geological Survey (USGS) James Reilly – a White House-appointed former oil geologist – ordered that scientific assessments only use computer-generated models that track the possible impact of climate change until 2040, according to The New York Times.

Previously the USGS modelled effects until the end of the century, the second half of which is likely to see the most dramatic impacts of global warming.

The order is likely to impact the US government’s National Climate Assessment, an interagency report produced every four years which outlines the projected impact of climate change in every corner of US society.

...
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Online 2397

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #560 on: May 28, 2019, 02:14:54 PM »
There's an excellent example of government secrets that should be leaked and spread far and wide. National security being the reason why they should be leaked.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #561 on: May 29, 2019, 07:19:31 PM »
#NoPlant19 has a lot of interesting content

tl:dr; Unusual weather has disrupted US agriculture.  Focus is on (1) could bankrupt small farmers, (2) could hike food prices and (3) what if it's the new normal? 

https://twitter.com/Germanscott74/status/1132276761193066497

Article: Farmers Are Using Twitter to Document the Disastrous Effects of Climate Change on Crops
From: Eater
Date: 2019 MAY 29

Quote
In case we need anymore evidence that the globe is disastrously warmed, a pattern of conditions is impacting the world’s agricultural systems and threatening food supplies in the U.S. and abroad. Because legislators will continue to deny the what’s literally happening before their eyes (*cough* Climate Change), U.S. farmers have now turned to the Twitter hashtag #NoPlant19 to bring attention to the extremely wet spring that’s made it difficult plant corn and soybeans.

The U.S. is currently in the midst of its wettest 12 months on record, with regions of the Great Plains and Midwest — where much of the nation’s corn and soy is produced — bearing the brunt of this spring’s rainfall. Not only are homes being damaged as a result of the extreme flooding, but the conditions are making it damn near impossible for farmers to plant their crops.

On average over the past four years, farmers in the states that represent a majority of the nation’s harvest would have planted 90 percent of their corn and 66 percent of their soy by May 26, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report. That makes a lot of sense since crop yields tend to decline when corn is planted after May 10 and farmers typically wrap up their planting efforts by May 31. However 2019’s crops are far behind schedule. As of May 26, only 58 percent of the nation’s corn had been planted and just 29 percent of its soy. Farmers are rightly worried and consumers should be too. Crop shortages will likely result in higher prices for consumers and since corn and soy are basically in every part of the American diet, that could be a real problem.

...




If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline wastrel

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #562 on: May 29, 2019, 07:25:33 PM »
Wouldn't generally warmer temperatures also mean that you could plant later than in previous years?

Online 2397

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #563 on: May 29, 2019, 08:11:41 PM »
Not if the general warmth is an average of much more variable weather.

Online CarbShark

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #564 on: May 29, 2019, 08:26:30 PM »
Wouldn't generally warmer temperatures also mean that you could plant later than in previous years?

Once the flood waters reside.

The issue isn't just warming, it's also more extreme weather that causes problems. In this case, floods.

Also one of the reasons that the early plantings are more productive than later plantings is that they avoid scorching in the summer heat.

So, warmer temperatures could mean you have to plant earlier than in previous years. As long as your land isn't underwater.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #565 on: May 30, 2019, 01:19:20 AM »
Wouldn't generally warmer temperatures also mean that you could plant later than in previous years?

Once the flood waters reside.

The issue isn't just warming, it's also more extreme weather that causes problems. In this case, floods.

Also one of the reasons that the early plantings are more productive than later plantings is that they avoid scorching in the summer heat.

So, warmer temperatures could mean you have to plant earlier than in previous years. As long as your land isn't underwater.

Agreed.

A warmer Earth might mean that there’ll be both losers and winners.  A very much warmer Earth means that there’ll be just losers. 
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Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #566 on: May 31, 2019, 03:28:59 PM »
Wouldn't generally warmer temperatures also mean that you could plant later than in previous years?

Once the flood waters reside.

The issue isn't just warming, it's also more extreme weather that causes problems. In this case, floods.

Also one of the reasons that the early plantings are more productive than later plantings is that they avoid scorching in the summer heat.

So, warmer temperatures could mean you have to plant earlier than in previous years. As long as your land isn't underwater.

Agreed.

A warmer Earth might mean that there’ll be both losers and winners.  A very much warmer Earth means that there’ll be just losers.

Of course, it won't only be bad in every single instance. But the net result for the planet is very likely going to be negative, by a long shot.

From what I have read, the northern-most countries of the world (like Canada and those in northern Europe) will be spared from some of the worst effects of global warming, and a warmer climate will certainly bring some benefits to those countries. But even for these countries, the net effect is still going to be negative. Just less net negative than for other parts of the world.

But these countries are rich, highly developed democracies. They will very likely be able to adapt to the net negative effects.
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Online CarbShark

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #567 on: May 31, 2019, 04:41:17 PM »
Wouldn't generally warmer temperatures also mean that you could plant later than in previous years?

Once the flood waters reside.

The issue isn't just warming, it's also more extreme weather that causes problems. In this case, floods.

Also one of the reasons that the early plantings are more productive than later plantings is that they avoid scorching in the summer heat.

So, warmer temperatures could mean you have to plant earlier than in previous years. As long as your land isn't underwater.

Agreed.

A warmer Earth might mean that there’ll be both losers and winners.  A very much warmer Earth means that there’ll be just losers.

Of course, it won't only be bad in every single instance. But the net result for the planet is very likely going to be negative, by a long shot.

From what I have read, the northern-most countries of the world (like Canada and those in northern Europe) will be spared from some of the worst effects of global warming, and a warmer climate will certainly bring some benefits to those countries. But even for these countries, the net effect is still going to be negative. Just less net negative than for other parts of the world.

But these countries are rich, highly developed democracies. They will very likely be able to adapt to the net negative effects.

The changes are happening so fast I don't think it will be good thing for anyone.

It takes time to generate the capacity to growing foods on new land. Plus, much of the land that will be warm enough for crops now has trees, which are doing their part absorbing CO2.

Also, this season in Southern California, as one example, we've had a lot of rain (a good thing) and moderate temperatures (another good thing). But come summer, we're probably going to break records for highest temperature (a bad thing) and highest average temperature (another bad thing) and combined with increasing dryness (still another bad thing) will result in more massive wildfires (not just a bad thing, but they dump tons and ones of greenhouse gasses and take the Trees and other plants that absorb Co2). So while it may make for more pleasant spring afternoons, on balance it's a bad bad thing.

 
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #568 on: May 31, 2019, 07:06:57 PM »
Norway is a cold country that you might think would be better off with a warmer climate. But the last few years have been pretty bad for agriculture because of the unusual weather patterns. We had a long drought last year which meant a lot of failed crops, then a slightly early spring this year before it turns freezing again which does damage to crops that had already started growing. It seems it's easier for the changes to do damage than to benefit.

Following the drought we had unusually much rainfall, which doesn't negate the drought, it just means more flooding. https://cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/climate-news/western-norway-to-see-more-heavy-rain-and-flooding-in-the-future

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #569 on: May 31, 2019, 07:13:46 PM »
We need giant GMO fast-growers.

Giant tomatoes.  Giant potatoes.

The over-sized trays of our hydroponic racks shall feed the world.
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

 

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