Author Topic: Climate Change Catchment Thread  (Read 42775 times)

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Online Rai

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #840 on: August 08, 2019, 02:28:26 PM »
The humans whose efforts would matter don't give a crap, so we should just mentally prepare for the absolute worst and enjoy the few decades we still have on the planet.

How do these people (oil executives, lobbyists obstructing legislation, etc) think? Sure, they want to make money. But don't they want their children to be in a livable world? It is reasonable to assume they have at least some idea about the consequences if no action against emissions is taken. It really is beyond me.

I think they are either sociopaths who don't care, or think that their money will protect their kids, which it probably will, to a certain extent.

But what a life! In the absolute worst case scenarios (that might not be very probable, but the risk is not zero), they would be living in bunkers, only visiting the miserable outside world accompanied by armed guards.

Is that all that different from how the super rich live now?

Yeah, they don't live in bunkers now, but if it comes to that, I don't think that what they'll have won't be luxurious, comfortable and stocked with all the goods and pleasures. They'll be fine.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #841 on: August 08, 2019, 02:31:31 PM »
How do these people (oil executives, lobbyists obstructing legislation, etc) think? Sure, they want to make money. But don't they want their children to be in a livable world? It is reasonable to assume they have at least some idea about the consequences if no action against emissions is taken. It really is beyond me.

I figure it's a combination of three things:
  • The 'Sociopath' Explanation -- Power doesn't typically accrue to 'nice' people.
  • The Systemic Explanation -- Individual decision-makers are tied up with individual concerns, not global.  Decision-makers are typically distant from 'on the ground' consequences.  To us, it's poisoned groundwater or contaminated medicine and so on.  To them, it's numbers on a spreadsheet. And their attentions, motivations and such are fully tied up on their end.
  • The Wealth Explanation -- They think they can buy their way out of anything.

I think there is a lot to this. I guess that's why we need political action to control this. Which unfortunately they are able to block.
"I’m a member of no party. I have no ideology. I’m a rationalist. I do what I can in the international struggle between science and reason and the barbarism, superstition and stupidity that’s all around us." - Christopher Hitchens

Offline CarbShark

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #842 on: August 08, 2019, 04:53:32 PM »
Worst Case Scenarios that could daisy-chain:
  • Worst Case #1: Current trajectory gives +2C in 2036
  • Worst Case #2: +2C triggers rapid slide to +4C
  • Worst Case #3: +4.5C triggers additional 8C via stratocumulus cloud dissolution
  • Overall Scenario: +2C by 2036 leads to +12.5C and that's beyond even 'Desert Hellworld' scenarios.
Excerpt from #1:
Quote
if the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming will rise to two degrees Celsius by 2036

Excerpt from #2:
Quote
A domino-like cascade of melting ice, warming seas, shifting currents and dying forests could tilt the Earth into a “hothouse” state beyond which human efforts to reduce emissions will be increasingly futile, a group of leading climate scientists has warned. [...] the Paris commitment to keep warming at 2C above pre-industrial levels may not be enough to “park” the planet’s climate

Excerpt from #3:
Quote
In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past.

Except these are not Worst Case Scenarios. These are the higher end of conservative estimates, in some cases assuming no increase in production of greenhouse gasses.

Also, for my fellow Americans:

Worst Case #1: Current trajectory gives +3.6f (2C) in 2036
Worst Case #2: +3.6f (2C) triggers rapid slide to +7.2f (4C)
Worst Case #3: +8.1f (4.5C)triggers additional +14.4f (8C) via stratocumulus cloud dissolution
Overall Scenario: +3.6f (2C) by 2036 leads to +22.5f (12.5C) and that's beyond even 'Desert Hellworld' scenarios.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #843 on: August 08, 2019, 06:06:08 PM »
Two indexes of how various countries are performing when it comes to climate sustainability. A major weakness of those indexes is that they measure relatively few countries (one of them even counts the EU as a country).

- Climate Action Tracker

- Climate Change Performance Index

Some interesting points:

- In both indexes, there is not a single country reaching the top level, meaning there is not a single country on the planet with actions for a sustainable climate.

- In both indexes, China scores better than the US (though nowhere nearly good enough to be sustainable). I was of the impression that China was worse than the US on climate.
"I’m a member of no party. I have no ideology. I’m a rationalist. I do what I can in the international struggle between science and reason and the barbarism, superstition and stupidity that’s all around us." - Christopher Hitchens

Online gmalivuk

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #844 on: August 08, 2019, 06:15:50 PM »
We all know how Celsius works, CarbShark. You don't need to multiply a bunch of numbers by 1.8 for us.
The world is so exquisite with so much love and moral depth, that there is no reason to deceive ourselves with pretty stories for which there's little good evidence. Far better...is to look death in the eye and to be grateful every day for the brief but magnificent opportunity that life provides.

Offline CarbShark

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #845 on: August 08, 2019, 08:11:13 PM »
We all know how Celsius works, CarbShark. You don't need to multiply a bunch of numbers by 1.8 for us.

I don't need to. I want to.

You don't need to read my posts, why do you want to?
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline Desert Fox

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #846 on: August 10, 2019, 03:42:28 AM »
New York is suing the big oil companies and one of the captions gets my attention

"Oil companies built their rigs to account for sea-level rise."

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a28636123/exxonmobil-lawsuit-climage-change-new-york/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Quote
The case is historic, especially in light of the revelations that Exxon and other energy companies knew as long ago as 30 years that carbon emissions were becoming perilous to the planet. It is possible that, if the case proceeds to trial, the energy companies may find themselves in the same spot where Brown & Williamson was on the subject of whether nicotine was addictive.
"Give me the storm and tempest of thought and action, rather than the dead calm of ignorance and faith. Banish me from Eden when you will; but first let me eat of the fruit of the tree of knowledge."
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Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #847 on: August 10, 2019, 06:38:14 AM »
New York is suing the big oil companies and one of the captions gets my attention

"Oil companies built their rigs to account for sea-level rise."

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a28636123/exxonmobil-lawsuit-climage-change-new-york/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Quote
The case is historic, especially in light of the revelations that Exxon and other energy companies knew as long ago as 30 years that carbon emissions were becoming perilous to the planet. It is possible that, if the case proceeds to trial, the energy companies may find themselves in the same spot where Brown & Williamson was on the subject of whether nicotine was addictive.

What a vision they must have had for the world!

"Due to our actions, the sea level will rise. Cities might drown. We better build our oil rigs so that they can still keep pumping up the black gold. Drill baby, drill!"
"I’m a member of no party. I have no ideology. I’m a rationalist. I do what I can in the international struggle between science and reason and the barbarism, superstition and stupidity that’s all around us." - Christopher Hitchens

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #848 on: August 10, 2019, 04:42:52 PM »
Quote
China is on track to meet its climate change goals nine years early

China appears on track to reach its carbon goals up to nine years earlier than planned under the Paris agreement, in a potential huge boost for efforts to tackle climate change.

The world’s biggest polluter accounts for a quarter of humanity’s emissions today, making the nation a crucial part of any efforts to avoid dangerous global warming.

Now an analysis has found that China’s emissions could peak at 13 to 16 gigatonnes of CO2 between 2021 and 2025, making what the researchers call a “a great contribution” to meeting the Paris deal’s goal of limiting temperature rises to 2°C. The official target is a peak by “around 2030.”

I'm not up on all the numbers, so I don't know if this is enough (my guess is that it probably isn't), but at least it's something.
"I’m a member of no party. I have no ideology. I’m a rationalist. I do what I can in the international struggle between science and reason and the barbarism, superstition and stupidity that’s all around us." - Christopher Hitchens

Offline lonely moa

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #849 on: August 11, 2019, 12:15:46 AM »
We all know how Celsius works, CarbShark. You don't need to multiply a bunch of numbers by 1.8 for us.

I don't need to. I want to.

You don't need to read my posts, why do you want to?

Actually, I remain aghast at the use of Fahrenheit. 
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Online 2397

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #850 on: August 11, 2019, 02:47:21 AM »
Quote
China is on track to meet its climate change goals nine years early

China appears on track to reach its carbon goals up to nine years earlier than planned under the Paris agreement, in a potential huge boost for efforts to tackle climate change.

The world’s biggest polluter accounts for a quarter of humanity’s emissions today, making the nation a crucial part of any efforts to avoid dangerous global warming.

Now an analysis has found that China’s emissions could peak at 13 to 16 gigatonnes of CO2 between 2021 and 2025, making what the researchers call a “a great contribution” to meeting the Paris deal’s goal of limiting temperature rises to 2°C. The official target is a peak by “around 2030.”

I'm not up on all the numbers, so I don't know if this is enough (my guess is that it probably isn't), but at least it's something.

It's worrying that a significant increase in emissions meets their Paris target.

14.85 gigatonnes would be as much as the entire world's emissions in 1970, or 40% of the world's record emissions in 2018. We need to cut a lot more than 60% of global emissions, and other countries aren't dropping to 0 any time soon.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2019, 02:52:34 AM by 2397 »

Offline Desert Fox

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #851 on: August 11, 2019, 09:35:50 AM »
Quote
China is on track to meet its climate change goals nine years early

China appears on track to reach its carbon goals up to nine years earlier than planned under the Paris agreement, in a potential huge boost for efforts to tackle climate change.

The world’s biggest polluter accounts for a quarter of humanity’s emissions today, making the nation a crucial part of any efforts to avoid dangerous global warming.

Now an analysis has found that China’s emissions could peak at 13 to 16 gigatonnes of CO2 between 2021 and 2025, making what the researchers call a “a great contribution” to meeting the Paris deal’s goal of limiting temperature rises to 2°C. The official target is a peak by “around 2030.”

I'm not up on all the numbers, so I don't know if this is enough (my guess is that it probably isn't), but at least it's something.

It's worrying that a significant increase in emissions meets their Paris target.

14.85 gigatonnes would be as much as the entire world's emissions in 1970, or 40% of the world's record emissions in 2018. We need to cut a lot more than 60% of global emissions, and other countries aren't dropping to 0 any time soon.

Hopefully we have a feedback loop towards zero emissions.
"Give me the storm and tempest of thought and action, rather than the dead calm of ignorance and faith. Banish me from Eden when you will; but first let me eat of the fruit of the tree of knowledge."
— Robert G. Ingersoll

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline gebobs

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #853 on: August 13, 2019, 08:29:08 AM »
What a maroon!

Dinesh D'souza Thinks Global Warming Doesn't Exist Because It Snows In Southern Hemisphere

https://www.newsweek.com/dinesh-dsouza-global-warming-doesnt-exist-snows-southern-hemisphere-1453890

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #854 on: August 18, 2019, 11:40:26 PM »
Interesting article with some data points on US sea-level rise adaptation/mitigation costs.

Article: Who Will Pay for the Huge Costs of Holding Back Rising Seas?
From: Yale Environment 360
Date: 2019 AUG 5

Quote
For cities in the United States, the price of infrastructure projects to combat rising seas and intensifying storms is coming into focus — and so is the sticker shock.

In Boston, where many neighborhoods have been built and recently expanded in low-lying areas, an estimated $2.4 billion will be needed over the next several decades to protect the city from flooding, one study says. That report came as the city abandoned plans to build a harbor barrier that would have cost between $6 billion and $12 billion, which researchers concluded was economically unfeasible.

In Charleston, South Carolina, the mayor said last year that the city, which floods regularly during high tides, had an estimated $2 billion in needed drainage projects.

In Norfolk, Virginia, the Army Corps of Engineers has recommended a $1.4 billion series of seawalls and other infrastructure to protect part of the shoreline. As with many cities, that’s just the start.

In Harris County, home to Houston, planners say $30 billion is needed to provide protection against a 100-year flood. Hurricane Harvey, which in 2017 caused 68 deaths and $125 billion in damages in the state, was the city’s third 500-year-flood in three years.

And in New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio has proposed a storm surge barrier and floodgates to shield parts of the city and New Jersey from rising waters. The estimated cost: $10 billion.

While the threats to these cities are growing as climate change intensifies, what is not clear is how to pay for projects needed to protect tens of millions of people and trillions of dollars of property. Conservative estimates of the capital investments needed to combat rising seas and worsening storms run into the hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming decades.

“The failure to face these costs is the next phase of climate denial,” says Richard Wiles, executive director of the Center for Climate Integrity, an environmental advocacy group that champions forcing polluters to pay for climate crisis costs. “We’ve got to look at this squarely and figure out how to pay for it.”

The center recently issued a study concluding that by 2040, building sea walls for storm surge protection for U.S. coastal cities with more than 25,000 residents will require at least $42 billion. Expand that to include communities under 25,000 people and the cost skyrockets to $400 billion. That’s nearly the price of building the 47,000 miles of the interstate highway system, which took four decades and cost more than $500 billion in today’s dollars.

The research is a rough yardstick because it only considers sea walls, not other ways to mitigate flood risk including buying out homeowners and improving storm water systems. “It’s a deliberate underestimate,” Wiles adds. “We know it will cost more — a lot more.”

...

[...] We think this is an emerging crisis for most of these communities,” he adds. “A very simple way of thinking about it is that it will be tens of thousands of dollars per resident in places that may not have a large tax base.”

...



If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?