Author Topic: Climate Change Catchment Thread  (Read 59639 times)

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diessoli

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #165 on: April 12, 2018, 04:14:40 pm »
The fact is, the results have been independently replicated
You seem to be writing about something else.  I can easily see in the emails the efforts to avoid sharing the actual data.  Information. That is what I wrote about.

What 'data' and 'information' are we talking about here? Can you be more specific? The blog-post you reference also just vaguely talks about 'data' and that some 'data' has been 'destroyed' without really making clear what data they are talking about.
When it comes to constructing the global mean temperature timeseries (like the CRU does) there is quite a lot of information from various sources that goes into calculating that time series.

D.

diessoli

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #166 on: April 12, 2018, 04:23:06 pm »

But lets say "reasons" are a valid excuse for withholding data and hiding information.  It doesn't change the basic point, that organizations and individuals either refuse to release information, or hide it from others.  That's actually not a bias, it's a realistic view of how the human world turns.

There are indeed valid reason why organisations like CRU cannot release certain information to the public or as part of FOI request.
E.g. often the temperature observations that are used to calculate global temps are provided by national weather-services (because they are the ones that have an observation network on the ground).
These weather services may permit CRU to use their data for scientific research, but not to distribute it any further. That is particularly true for privatized weather services who see this kind of data as a valuable asset that they don't want to release publicly.
The CRU are not at fault here they are just sticking to their contracts.

D.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #167 on: April 12, 2018, 07:41:40 pm »
So yes, they were not as forthcoming with the data as maybe they should have been,
  That's a kind and blind view of what is in the emails.

This ancient blog post from the time still is easy enough to understand.

https://www.firstthings.com/blogs/firstthoughts/2009/12/the-significance-of-climategate

That blog post shows that the author has no idea what he's talking about when they wrote:

Quote
When pressed to share their basic data with other scientists, who might in true scientific method see if they could reproduce the conclusions, they refused.

McIntyre and his army of FOIA trolls are decidedly not climate scientists. They are pseudoscientists who have made a career out of publishing misinformation about climate science on blogs and on one or two occassions have managed to publish deeply flawed work that should never make it past peer review. See the Santer video above for an example of the latter.

They also have no real interest in reproducing the work done by the CRU. For one thing, they have never published a replication in any scientific journal, even when they had all the data necessary to do so. What they do is take the data they can get, cherry pick what they like, apply inappropriate methods to it in inappropriate ways, and then blog about their data dredging adventures. It is then left to scientifically minded bloggers to wade through that mess and point out the many mistakes they make. This is also illustrated by their insistence on getting intermediate results and the programs used to generate them. If you want to reproduce work done by other scientists, you don't use their code. You follow the description they have given in in the literature of the procedures they followed to reproduce the whole thing from the raw data up step by step. You cannot have independent replication by just throwing the same data at the same computer program because you'll never catch bugs that way. The whole thing is a fishing expedition.

Also:

Quote
And the Siberian tree rings turned out to have been cherry-picked (they weren’t cherry trees, though) to fit a premature conclusion

This is straight up bullshit that has been exposed many times over. Briffa reproduced his "hockey stick" with all the data included, and his conclusions remained solid. By contrast, when McIntyre did his own "reproduction" of Briffa's results, he just chucked in a completely unrelated dataset to get the results he wanted. It also turns out that he had the data he was demanding, which Briffa didn't own and therefore couldn't have given him in the first place, all along.

If you want I could dissect the blog post further, but that'll take me a lot of time (it's late), and I think you get the point, so I'll leave it there.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 07:07:18 am by werecow »
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #168 on: April 15, 2018, 07:35:47 pm »
Article: A North American Climate Boundary Has Shifted 140 Miles East Due to Global Warming
From: Yale Environment
Date: 2018 April 11

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In the late 1800s, geologist and explorer John Wesley Powell first described a clear boundary running longitudinally through North America along the 100th meridian west that visibly separated the humid eastern part of the continent from the more arid western plains. Now, 140 years later, scientists have confirmed that such a sharp climatic boundary exists and that it is slowly shifting east due to climate change — a change that scientists say could have significant implications on farming in the region.

The new research, published in a pair of studies in the journal Earth Interactions late last month, found the divide is created by three factors: the Rocky Mountains stopping moisture from the Pacific Ocean reaching farther inland, Atlantic winter storms bringing moisture to the eastern half of the U.S., and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moving north and curving eastward during the summer months. The only other clear, straight divide between humid and arid areas on the globe is the one separating the Sahara Desert from the rest of Africa, climate scientist Richard Seager of Columbia University, lead author of the new papers, said in a statement.

...

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... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #170 on: April 17, 2018, 02:44:54 pm »
Huge.
"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #171 on: April 19, 2018, 04:53:20 am »
From 1980 to now, there is an approximately 20% increase in atmospheric carbon.
That does appear to be pretty significant.
Large data of text  or Mediumtext or Longtext

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #172 on: May 05, 2018, 12:18:20 am »
Article: Hottest April Day Ever Was Probably Monday in Pakistan: a Record 122.4°F
From: NY Times
Date: 2018 MAY 4

Quote
[...] 122.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

The reading came from Nawabshah, a city of 1.1 million people in southern Pakistan, and meteorologists say it is the highest temperature ever reliably recorded, anywhere in the world, in the month of April.

The World Meteorological Organization keeps global temperature records, but not by month, which means Monday in Nawabshah cannot be officially confirmed as the hottest April day. But experts on extreme temperatures say it probably is.

Christopher C. Burt, the author of “Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book” and a contributor to Weather Underground, said that 122.4 degrees, or 50.2 degrees Celsius, appeared to be the hottest reliably measured April temperature “in modern records for any location on Earth.” Only one reading might challenge it: 123.8 degrees Fahrenheit, or 51 degrees Celsius, recorded in Santa Rosa, Mexico, in April 2011. But Mr. Burt said that measurement was “questionable because the site was a regional observation site and not of first order.”

...

oh dang
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #173 on: May 05, 2018, 07:17:31 pm »
Efforts to turn science into legislative or regulatory action were largely successful when it came to the Ozone hole and tobacco.  Not so much today with global warming.  If the internet and twitter and facebook and today's social networking had been around back then, would they have been as successful?  Our knowledge basically came from the news networks of the day...ABC, CBS, NBS, PBS, and maybe CNN.  But today it's different.
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #174 on: May 07, 2018, 09:15:45 pm »
Article: Arctic winter warms up to a low summer ice season
From: NSIDC
Date: 2018 MAY 03

Quote
...

As averaged over the Arctic Ocean domain (Figure 4d), the multiyear ice cover has declined from 61 percent in 1984 to 34 percent in 2018. In addition, only 2 percent of the ice age cover is categorized as five-plus years, the least amount recorded during the winter period.

...

... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #175 on: May 09, 2018, 09:22:35 am »
Efforts to turn science into legislative or regulatory action were largely successful when it came to the Ozone hole and tobacco.  Not so much today with global warming.  If the internet and twitter and facebook and today's social networking had been around back then, would they have been as successful?  Our knowledge basically came from the news networks of the day...ABC, CBS, NBS, PBS, and maybe CNN.  But today it's different.

Don't forget the "failing" New York Times.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #176 on: May 14, 2018, 10:45:40 am »
Quote
Changes in decadal surface air temperature anomalies (departure from the 1951-1980 average)

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/995847852029952000
... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #177 on: May 14, 2018, 12:54:33 pm »
So, some of the penguins might survive.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #178 on: May 17, 2018, 02:34:46 pm »
Republican... Alabama...  :-[

Quote
A Republican lawmaker on the House Science, Space and Technology Committee said Thursday that rocks from the White Cliffs of Dover and the California coastline, as well as silt from rivers tumbling into the ocean, are contributing to high sea levels globally.

Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) made the comment during a hearing on technology and the changing climate, which largely turned into a Q&A on the basics of climate research.

"Every time you have that soil or rock or whatever it is that is deposited into the seas, that forces the sea levels to rise, because now you have less space in those oceans, because the bottom is moving up," Brooks said at the hearing.

EUREKA!
Amend and resubmit.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #179 on: May 17, 2018, 02:49:21 pm »
Glaciers don't lie, NIWA.

"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.