Author Topic: Climate Change Catchment Thread  (Read 59641 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online werecow

  • Cryptobovinologist
  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 5521
  • mooh
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #315 on: January 03, 2019, 11:27:25 am »
This slightly extended version seems somehow increasingly appropriate:

Mooohn!

Online werecow

  • Cryptobovinologist
  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 5521
  • mooh
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #316 on: January 04, 2019, 10:42:04 pm »
This is a little off topic, but this talk struck a chord with me and the environmental aspects seem relevant to this thread. It's a lecture on the collapse of late bronze age Mediterranean civilizations:

Mooohn!

Offline Quetzalcoatl

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 5558
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #317 on: January 07, 2019, 10:33:52 am »
In case you are wondering where you should be in terms of climate change, here is a map:



I'm surprised at the good scores of Australia, Spain, and Portugal. Sure they are politically stable developed first-world countries, but they are already very warm countries. Surely that will only get worse. In particular Australia, which is mostly desert. Already the people there are clustered mostly around the south-eastern coast, I assume because of the hostile climate of the rest of that continent.

Large data of text  or Mediumtext or Longtext

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9624
  • Observer of Phenomena
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #318 on: January 07, 2019, 07:41:10 pm »
I'm surprised at the good scores of Australia, Spain, and Portugal. Sure they are politically stable developed first-world countries, but they are already very warm countries. Surely that will only get worse. In particular Australia, which is mostly desert. Already the people there are clustered mostly around the south-eastern coast, I assume because of the hostile climate of the rest of that continent.
It's mostly due to the accessibility of water. Because Australia is such a large, old continent, there's not a lot of water inland. Lack of water tends to be a self-reinforcing cycle. Less standing water, less evaporation, less rain, repeat. There's plenty of water in the tropics and most of the coasts are pretty good, but water is by far the biggest barrier to habitation in central Australia.
Self-described nerd. Pronouns: He/Him.

Online bachfiend

  • Not Any Kind of Moderator
  • Frequent Poster
  • ******
  • Posts: 2641
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #319 on: January 07, 2019, 08:30:49 pm »
I'm surprised at the good scores of Australia, Spain, and Portugal. Sure they are politically stable developed first-world countries, but they are already very warm countries. Surely that will only get worse. In particular Australia, which is mostly desert. Already the people there are clustered mostly around the south-eastern coast, I assume because of the hostile climate of the rest of that continent.
It's mostly due to the accessibility of water. Because Australia is such a large, old continent, there's not a lot of water inland. Lack of water tends to be a self-reinforcing cycle. Less standing water, less evaporation, less rain, repeat. There's plenty of water in the tropics and most of the coasts are pretty good, but water is by far the biggest barrier to habitation in central Australia.

It’s not so much lack of water but irregularity of water (rainfall).  For example, there’s Goyder’s line in South Australia, which runs roughly parallel to the coast, north of which annual rainfall is less than 250 mm, too little to support agriculture, but sufficient for grazing, which was the government recommendation.  And then in 1865, there were very good rains, and farmers rushed northwards to establish new farms.  And then the rainfall returned to normal.

It’s expected that Goyder’s line will move south with global warming, putting some South Australian farms out of business.

One point to note - the map shows than each country has an equal uniform risk due to global warming.  Some regions within countries will be at greater risk.  And some regions may gain.
Gebt ihr ihr ihr Buch zurück

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9624
  • Observer of Phenomena
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #320 on: January 07, 2019, 08:54:15 pm »
I'm surprised at the good scores of Australia, Spain, and Portugal. Sure they are politically stable developed first-world countries, but they are already very warm countries. Surely that will only get worse. In particular Australia, which is mostly desert. Already the people there are clustered mostly around the south-eastern coast, I assume because of the hostile climate of the rest of that continent.
It's mostly due to the accessibility of water. Because Australia is such a large, old continent, there's not a lot of water inland. Lack of water tends to be a self-reinforcing cycle. Less standing water, less evaporation, less rain, repeat. There's plenty of water in the tropics and most of the coasts are pretty good, but water is by far the biggest barrier to habitation in central Australia.

It’s not so much lack of water but irregularity of water (rainfall).  For example, there’s Goyder’s line in South Australia, which runs roughly parallel to the coast, north of which annual rainfall is less than 250 mm, too little to support agriculture, but sufficient for grazing, which was the government recommendation.  And then in 1865, there were very good rains, and farmers rushed northwards to establish new farms.  And then the rainfall returned to normal.

It’s expected that Goyder’s line will move south with global warming, putting some South Australian farms out of business.

One point to note - the map shows than each country has an equal uniform risk due to global warming.  Some regions within countries will be at greater risk.  And some regions may gain.

Indeed. There's a band in between sea level rise and desertification that people will still be able to inhabit.
Self-described nerd. Pronouns: He/Him.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 5558
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #321 on: January 08, 2019, 04:36:44 pm »
I'm surprised at the good scores of Australia, Spain, and Portugal. Sure they are politically stable developed first-world countries, but they are already very warm countries. Surely that will only get worse. In particular Australia, which is mostly desert. Already the people there are clustered mostly around the south-eastern coast, I assume because of the hostile climate of the rest of that continent.
It's mostly due to the accessibility of water. Because Australia is such a large, old continent, there's not a lot of water inland. Lack of water tends to be a self-reinforcing cycle. Less standing water, less evaporation, less rain, repeat. There's plenty of water in the tropics and most of the coasts are pretty good, but water is by far the biggest barrier to habitation in central Australia.

Perhaps I misunderstand something, but shouldn't that be a point to make Australia even less hospitable in a significantly warmer world? At the map above, it is top-rated. And I get it that being a wealthy, stable democracy really helps. But still. It has a very hot climate, and what's more, the ozone layer is thinner there than in the northern hemisphere, if I'm not mistaken.
Large data of text  or Mediumtext or Longtext

Online bachfiend

  • Not Any Kind of Moderator
  • Frequent Poster
  • ******
  • Posts: 2641
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #322 on: January 08, 2019, 07:12:44 pm »
I'm surprised at the good scores of Australia, Spain, and Portugal. Sure they are politically stable developed first-world countries, but they are already very warm countries. Surely that will only get worse. In particular Australia, which is mostly desert. Already the people there are clustered mostly around the south-eastern coast, I assume because of the hostile climate of the rest of that continent.
It's mostly due to the accessibility of water. Because Australia is such a large, old continent, there's not a lot of water inland. Lack of water tends to be a self-reinforcing cycle. Less standing water, less evaporation, less rain, repeat. There's plenty of water in the tropics and most of the coasts are pretty good, but water is by far the biggest barrier to habitation in central Australia.

Perhaps I misunderstand something, but shouldn't that be a point to make Australia even less hospitable in a significantly warmer world? At the map above, it is top-rated. And I get it that being a wealthy, stable democracy really helps. But still. It has a very hot climate, and what's more, the ozone layer is thinner there than in the northern hemisphere, if I'm not mistaken.

The ozone layer is irrelevant in regard to future global warming.  And the Antarctic hole in the ozone layer is decreasing in size.

Most of Australia’s population lives in a narrow band around the southern coast, and ocean moderates climate to some extent.

I suppose one of the thoughts is that we’ll be able to sell minerals and fossil fuels to be able to buy food when global warming wrecks agriculture.

I’m not so optimistic.
Gebt ihr ihr ihr Buch zurück

Offline Quetzalcoatl

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 5558
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #323 on: January 10, 2019, 01:14:05 pm »
Yeah, I suppose the coastal areas will remain inhabitable for humans. But even there it's still pretty warm even today.
Large data of text  or Mediumtext or Longtext

Online 2397

  • Frequent Poster
  • ******
  • Posts: 3194
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #324 on: January 10, 2019, 01:52:15 pm »
Except they'll be slightly different coastal areas.

Online Tassie Dave

  • Frequent Poster
  • ******
  • Posts: 2693
  • Go Tiges
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #325 on: January 10, 2019, 01:57:45 pm »
Yeah, I suppose the coastal areas will remain inhabitable for humans. But even there it's still pretty warm even today.

The south east is fairly mild. You do get hot days, but not as bad as the rest of the country.

Even in summer, it rains where I am 3 to 4 days a week and rarely gets above 30 (86F). 3 times so far this summer and I'd expect probably another 5 days for the rest of summer.

Above 100F (38C) is even rarer. My area has only experienced that once ever (39C in 2013)


Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 10479
  • Cache rules everything around me.
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #326 on: January 10, 2019, 02:13:20 pm »
'Australia Chat' reminds me of this big ole' article about the world's shifting geography:

Article: Redrawing the Map: How the World’s Climate Zones Are Shifting
From: Yale
Date: 2018 OCT 23

Quote
...

THE WHEAT BELT IS PUSHING POLEWARD AT UP TO 160 MILES PER DECADE

Australia, renowned for its interior deserts and coastal beaches, is also one of the planet’s largest wheat exporters — just after Canada, Russia, and the U.S. But the arable land at the nation’s southern edge is shrinking, and its potential for growing wheat declining.

In the 1860s, surveyor George Goyder drew a line to show where the edge of Australia’s arable land ended. More than a century later, Goyder’s line is still considered an important feature in determining the country’s “cropping belt.” But climate change is making that land drier, effectively pushing the line further south.

Any given patch of land has a “theoretical potential” for the amount of wheat it can support, given its soil, the climate, and other factors. Reductions in rainfall and warmer temperatures have already reduced the theoretical potential of southern Australia by 27 percent since 1990. So far, farmers have managed to adapt to the changing conditions and squeeze the same amount of wheat out of their lands. By tweaking things such as their seeds and harvesting practices, they have gone from harvesting 38 percent of their theoretical maximum in 1990 to 55 percent in 2015. But that can only go on so long — farmers can typically only reach about 80 percent of any given parcel of land’s maximum potential. Once they hit that limit, Australian farmers probably won’t be able to counteract the effects of the changing climate any longer. Zvi Hochman, of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), says he expects to see actual yields start to drop around 2040. Places like the farming community of Orroroo, currently right on top of Goyder’s line, will be “significantly impacted,” writes Julia Piantadosi of the University of South Australia in Adelaide — they won’t be able to keep farming the way they are doing today.

...


... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 10479
  • Cache rules everything around me.
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #327 on: January 10, 2019, 03:30:53 pm »
Sea-level rise ruining Miami-Dade's septic tanks.

Article: A $3 billion problem: Miami-Dade’s septic tanks are already failing due to sea rise
From: Miami Herald
Date: 2019 JAN 10

Quote
Miami-Dade has tens of thousands of septic tanks, and a new report reveals most are already malfunctioning — the smelly and unhealthy evidence of which often ends up in people’s yards and homes. It’s a billion-dollar problem that climate change is making worse.

As sea level rise encroaches on South Florida, the Miami-Dade County study shows that thousands more residents may be at risk — and soon. By 2040, 64 percent of county septic tanks (more than 67,000) could have issues every year, affecting not only the people who rely on them for sewage treatment, but the region’s water supply and the health of anyone who wades through floodwaters.

...

In total, there are about 108,000 properties within the county that still use septic, about 105,000 of which are residential. The vast majority (more than 65,000) of the septic systems are in unincorporated Miami-Dade.

...
... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 5558
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #328 on: January 10, 2019, 03:35:42 pm »
Yeah, I suppose the coastal areas will remain inhabitable for humans. But even there it's still pretty warm even today.

The south east is fairly mild. You do get hot days, but not as bad as the rest of the country.

Even in summer, it rains where I am 3 to 4 days a week and rarely gets above 30 (86F). 3 times so far this summer and I'd expect probably another 5 days for the rest of summer.

Above 100F (38C) is even rarer. My area has only experienced that once ever (39C in 2013)

This doesn't sound very different from Sweden, even though your summer season is probably longer than ours. I expected Australia to be significantly warmer compared to around here.
Large data of text  or Mediumtext or Longtext

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9624
  • Observer of Phenomena
    • View Profile
Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #329 on: January 10, 2019, 08:55:09 pm »
Yeah, I suppose the coastal areas will remain inhabitable for humans. But even there it's still pretty warm even today.

The south east is fairly mild. You do get hot days, but not as bad as the rest of the country.

Even in summer, it rains where I am 3 to 4 days a week and rarely gets above 30 (86F). 3 times so far this summer and I'd expect probably another 5 days for the rest of summer.

Above 100F (38C) is even rarer. My area has only experienced that once ever (39C in 2013)

This doesn't sound very different from Sweden, even though your summer season is probably longer than ours. I expected Australia to be significantly warmer compared to around here.

Remember that Dave is talking about a small area of the coast. Inland it gets MUCH warmer.
Self-described nerd. Pronouns: He/Him.