Author Topic: Climate Change Catchment Thread  (Read 59635 times)

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Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #615 on: June 18, 2019, 12:37:25 pm »
Going off the excerpt, seems like he's downplaying the upper-bound on how bad this could get. 

Like, last I checked:
  • Current Lock-In: +1.5C by 2100
  • Current Worst-Case: ~+5C by 2100.  This is vastly worse than 'one recession.'
  • (Bonus) Absolute Worst-Case I Can Assemble Using Articles I've Read Recently:
    • Worst Case #1: Current trajectory gives +2C in 2036
    • Worst Case #2: +2C accelerates slide to +4C
    • Worst Case #3: +4.5C triggers additional 8C via stratocumulus cloud dissolution
    • Overall Scenario: +2C by 2036 leads to +12.5C and that's Doomsday territory.
Warming, instability, melting and other metrics keep exceeding projections.  Projections keep getting worse.  There's a steady stream of dire research coming out and we can only hope it's all wrong. And, to top it off, the world's not doing nearly enough.  What we're doing now would've been great in the '80s. 

His, "one recession," remark also fails to account for other risks.  For example, geopolitical instability everywhere will be increased. Such as by glacier-fed rivers in SE Asia drying up, leaving over a billion people high and dry. This includes hundreds of millions in India-Pakistan who rely on shared rivers and this will be a nasty situation. 
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 02:35:31 pm by Soldier of FORTRAN »
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #616 on: June 18, 2019, 01:11:36 pm »
Going off the excerpt, seems like he's downplaying the upper-bound on how bad this could get. 

Like, last I checked:
  • Current Lock-In: +1.5C (2.7f) by 2100
  • Current Worst-Case: ~+5C (9f) by 2100.  This is vastly worse than 'one recession.'
  • (Bonus) Absolute Worst-Case I Can Assemble Using Articles I've Read Recently:
    • Worst Case #1: Current trajectory gives +2C (3.6f) in 2036
    • Worst Case #2: +2C (3.6f) accelerates slide to +4C (7.2f)
    • Worst Case #3: +4.5C (8.1f) triggers additional 8C (14.4f) via stratocumulus cloud dissolution
    • Overall Scenario: +2C (3.6f) by 2036 leads to +12.5C (22.5f) and that's Doomsday territory.
Warming, instability, melting and other metrics keep exceeding projections.  Projections keep getting worse.  There's a steady stream of dire research coming out and we can only hope it's all wrong. And, to top it off, the world's not doing nearly enough.  What we're doing now would've been great in the '80s. 

His, "one recession," remark also fails to account for other risks.  Geopolitical instability everywhere will be increased.  Like, glacier-fed revers in SE Asia will be drying up, leaving over a billion people high and dry. This includes hundreds of millions in India-Pakistan who rely on shared rivers and this will be a nasty situation.

Especially for US readers, temperatures should always include Fahrenheit. Not just because it's what most people outside of science relate to, but also because the C temperatures on a smaller scale may seem to downplay the true effect.

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Offline lonely moa

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #617 on: June 18, 2019, 02:18:51 pm »
Especially for US readers, temperatures should always include Fahrenheit. Not just because it's what most people outside of science relate to, but also because the C temperatures on a smaller scale may seem to downplay the true effect.

Grow up.  SI rules.
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Offline lonely moa

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #618 on: June 18, 2019, 02:25:06 pm »
I attended a very interesting lecture last night at out Forest and Bird meeting regarding the relationship of microbes and climate change.  the lecturer was a researcher at the University of Canterbury... he wasn't particularly optimistic about the outcome of current policy.

The slide show was very easy to follow and introduced some new and some familiar) aspects of the influence of the very tiny on the very large.

No mention of Fahrenheit, miles or pounds, BTW.
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Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #619 on: June 18, 2019, 03:09:45 pm »
Such as by glacier-fed rivers in SE Asia drying up, leaving over a billion people high and dry.

To expand on this point:



By 2100, those glaciers will be mostly gone.  Hope we develop efficient, scalable desal soon.
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Offline Igor SMC

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #620 on: June 18, 2019, 03:41:14 pm »
I'm 100% sure that the next update from the bulletin of atomic scientists will move the doomsday clock closer to midnight than ever before. Maybe we are one minute and a half from midnight... or even just one minute...

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #621 on: June 18, 2019, 04:34:49 pm »
Especially for US readers, temperatures should always include Fahrenheit. Not just because it's what most people outside of science relate to, but also because the C temperatures on a smaller scale may seem to downplay the true effect.
People reading about a scientific issue on a science and skepticism forum are not "outside science".
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #622 on: June 18, 2019, 04:42:35 pm »
I'm 100% sure that the next update from the bulletin of atomic scientists will move the doomsday clock closer to midnight than ever before. Maybe we are one minute and a half from midnight... or even just one minute...

I thought that clock was Nuclear War Doomsday. Not the slow burn of Global Warming.
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #623 on: June 18, 2019, 04:43:30 pm »
Especially for US readers, temperatures should always include Fahrenheit. Not just because it's what most people outside of science relate to, but also because the C temperatures on a smaller scale may seem to downplay the true effect.
People reading about a scientific issue on a science and skepticism forum are not "outside science".

I think there's plenty of evidence to the contrary. (FWIW, even  :steve: prefers F)
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Online gmalivuk

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #624 on: June 18, 2019, 04:47:01 pm »
Especially for US readers, temperatures should always include Fahrenheit. Not just because it's what most people outside of science relate to, but also because the C temperatures on a smaller scale may seem to downplay the true effect.
People reading about a scientific issue on a science and skepticism forum are not "outside science".
I think there's plenty of evidence to the contrary.
Evidence like what? Your lone complaint here in this thread?

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(FWIW, even  :steve: prefers F)
In some situations so do I, but that doesn't mean I can't relate to C.

Nor is it relevant to your statement about people outside science, since Steve isn't one of those.
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #625 on: June 18, 2019, 04:48:19 pm »
I'm 100% sure that the next update from the bulletin of atomic scientists will move the doomsday clock closer to midnight than ever before. Maybe we are one minute and a half from midnight... or even just one minute...

I thought that clock was Nuclear War Doomsday. Not the slow burn of Global Warming.

Apparently not.



Current Time - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


Quote
A new abnormal: It is still two minutes to midnight


Humanity now faces two simultaneous existential threats, either of which would be cause for extreme concern and immediate attention. These major threats—nuclear weapons and climate change—were exacerbated this past year by the increased use of information warfare to undermine democracy around the world, amplifying risk from these and other threats and putting the future of civilization in extraordinary danger.

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #626 on: June 19, 2019, 01:17:25 am »
The doomsday clock is ridiculous for the same reason that terror alerts that are always red are: they reject nuance and the ability to communicate information in favor of perpetual alarmism, with the result that people become inured to them.
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #627 on: June 19, 2019, 01:52:29 am »
The doomsday clock is ridiculous for the same reason that terror alerts that are always red are: they reject nuance and the ability to communicate information in favor of perpetual alarmism, with the result that people become inured to them.

That is a good point - One could argue that we may be past midnight with respect to Global Waming
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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #628 on: June 19, 2019, 03:40:17 am »
One could argue it's 4 in the morning as well.
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Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Climate Change Catchment Thread
« Reply #629 on: June 19, 2019, 03:52:16 am »
We still have time to act on climate change — but records will tumble for next 20 years regardless of emissions: study

Quote
Our last summer was the hottest on record in Australia, and we can expect the record breaking weather to continue for at least the next 20 years, new climate change research has found.

Regardless of action on climate change, monthly temperature records will continue to be smashed for the next two decades, but what happens beyond then depends on whether or not we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

Immediate action to drastically reduce emissions would rein in the temperature record-breaking from around 2040, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change today.

But the rate of record-smashing will continue to rise throughout the 21st century if emissions keep increasing at the current rate.
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