Author Topic: Episode #639  (Read 840 times)

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Offline brilu34

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2017, 02:26:44 PM »
Re: Science or Fiction - "International study" more dislike for people of a different political party than religion or race. The international study consisted of Belgium, Spain & the US. This may be true for the few western countries surveyed, but I don't believe they would've had the same results if they had included the Middle East, Asia & Africa.

Offline Ah.hell

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2017, 03:04:37 PM »
Elon Musk is a Pseudo-Scientist!
that does not make him a pseudo-scientist. I would just call him over-confident. His methods are scientific.
Really, he's more of a pseudo-engineer. :P

That being said, there is an irrational exuberance that surrounds him, even from otherwise rational people.  He wants to make Sci-fi real which really hits some buttons when it comes to Sci-fi fan boys.  I'm not even convince Tesla will ultimately be a succesful car company but we shall see.  As Daniel says, his real sin is overoptimism.   

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2017, 04:58:20 PM »
Oh, by the way; for anyone interested in the book, Amazon has the Kindle version on sale for $4 and I think the audio book version is on sale too.

Yep. That's what I paid. It's about right for a Kindle book.
Daniel
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-- Otto von Bismarck

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2017, 05:06:43 PM »
Elon Musk is a Pseudo-Scientist!
that does not make him a pseudo-scientist. I would just call him over-confident. His methods are scientific.
Really, he's more of a pseudo-engineer. :P

That being said, there is an irrational exuberance that surrounds him, even from otherwise rational people.  He wants to make Sci-fi real which really hits some buttons when it comes to Sci-fi fan boys.  I'm not even convince Tesla will ultimately be a succesful car company but we shall see.  As Daniel says, his real sin is overoptimism.   

I like him because his company built the most fun car I've ever owned, and while not quite as reliable as my two Japanese cars, it's more reliable than my previous American-made cars. I do expect Tesla Motors to succeed. Right now they have half a million reservations for their next car, the unimaginatively-named Model 3, which starts at $35,000 and goes up from there depending on options.

And I don't regard overoptimism as a sin. It's just something to be aware of when Musk makes predictions, expounds on what he thinks is possible, or gives expected time lines.

His category is entrepreneur, and he's a very successful one. And while he is overoptimistic, he embraces science and rejects pseudoscience.
Daniel
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"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."
-- Otto von Bismarck

Offline avillarrealpouw

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2017, 05:07:16 PM »
I would just call him over-confident. His methods are scientific.
As an engineer I can tell you that there is a difference between being overly optimistic and throwing numbers that evidently don't add up and that even a novice engineer has to see how they do not add up. If I were making a bridge and made the kind of elemental errors that Musk's people did in the BFR and the Hyperloop, I would not get a permit for the bridge, and if I found the way to do the bridge without the permit anyway, I would go to jail.

I have no idea how Musk (or his team) managed to design and produce the Tesla cars with a reasonable or good standard of safety, and then managed to design a rocket with no consideration for safety at all. The same goes for the Hyperloop. One of the explanations I have read is that Tesla is bleeding money, and SpaceX has worked but only with the mostly standard products. That looks like he chose good people to make the spaceships and did not do the engineering himself.

But no, not even believing that he is not a good engineer can you accept that he is saying he will take people halfway around the world for less than the price of the fuel. That is not optimism, that is a hidden agenda we have not yet discovered.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2017, 06:55:39 PM »
I would just call him over-confident. His methods are scientific.
As an engineer I can tell you that there is a difference between being overly optimistic and throwing numbers that evidently don't add up and that even a novice engineer has to see how they do not add up. If I were making a bridge and made the kind of elemental errors that Musk's people did in the BFR and the Hyperloop, I would not get a permit for the bridge, and if I found the way to do the bridge without the permit anyway, I would go to jail.

I have no idea how Musk (or his team) managed to design and produce the Tesla cars with a reasonable or good standard of safety, and then managed to design a rocket with no consideration for safety at all. The same goes for the Hyperloop. One of the explanations I have read is that Tesla is bleeding money, and SpaceX has worked but only with the mostly standard products. That looks like he chose good people to make the spaceships and did not do the engineering himself.

But no, not even believing that he is not a good engineer can you accept that he is saying he will take people halfway around the world for less than the price of the fuel. That is not optimism, that is a hidden agenda we have not yet discovered.

Tesla cars (after the Roadster, where Tesla only built the drive train) get the highest safety ratings in the industry. The BFR and the hyperloop are just talk. SpaceX's rockets perform as well as those of any space program. And the claim that Tesla is "bleeding money" only refers to the fact that Tesla is plowing everything back into R&D.

If you judge Musk by his dreams, he seems like a bit of a nut. If you judge him by his accomplishments, he is impressive as a successful businessman who produces the highest-quality products.
Daniel
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"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."
-- Otto von Bismarck

Offline DaKine Oregon

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2017, 05:39:12 AM »
There are many other opportunities for Citizen Scientists to help out researchers. A couple I'm aware of are GlobalXplorer <https://www.globalxplorer.org/> which is the brainchild of 2016 TED Prize Winner an National Geographic Fellow, Dr. Sarah Parcak. Sarah is a Space Archeologist, exploring the earth via satellite photography to find previously undiscovered archeological treasures. She asks citizens to look at pictures of archeologically rich places around the world to identify places being vandalized by pot hunters so that those sites in the most danger can be protected.

Then there is the massive and multifaceted site Zooniverse <https://www.zooniverse.org/> It has 76 projects currently, in fields such as Medicine (help  analyze brain scans), History, Language, Biology (count wildlife, help train AI to recognize plastic pollution, or help identify microstuctures in cells), the Arts (help transcribe writings from Shakespeare's era, help understand ancient Egyptian writings), Literature, Physics (look at images from the Large Hadron Collider to identify unknown particles, or help understand the workings of Jamaican steel drums), Space (find comets, exoplanets or newly forming stars, or look at LIGO images to help identify the sources of signals). And many more.

DaKine Oregon

Offline gebobs

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2017, 11:20:29 AM »

Steve said that they do not divulge the nominees. Perhaps he meant that they do not divulge the nominees until after the choice is made, because I know someone who was nominated for the Nobel Peace prize. Apparently past recipients of the Peace Prize nominate the candidates. I first met Kathy Kelly, a co-founder of Voices in the Wilderness and a co-coordinator of Voices for Creative Nonviolence, at a peace gathering right after she had been released from prison for protesting nukes at a missile silo in Missouri. I had not yet been to prison, but was expecting to go, for a similar protest. I met her again on a few other occasions at peace activism gatherings, most recently when she came to Spokane on behalf of our local peace & justice organization. A mutual friend has told me that she asks about me occasionally. The same friend told me that she was nominated for the Peace Prize.

The nominees are not officially released/publicised by the Nobel Committee for 50 years. On the Nobel website, you can see only nominees as recent as 1966. People may claim they have been nominated or claim that they themselves have nominated others but the committee doesn't acknowledge it and may revoke one's nomination privileges as a result.

That being said, she is certainly deserving and it's possible she has been nominated multiple times (as her wiki page claims).
« Last Edit: October 11, 2017, 11:27:20 AM by gebobs »

Offline PabloHoney

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2017, 05:30:11 PM »
Guessing the quote from this episode doesn't have the same meaning for the antivaxer wingnuts!   :evan:

“Scientific literacy is an intellectual vaccine against the claims of charlatans who would exploit ignorance.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson

Offline PatrickG

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2017, 01:44:16 PM »
I would just call him over-confident. His methods are scientific.
As an engineer I can tell you that there is a difference between being overly optimistic and throwing numbers that evidently don't add up and that even a novice engineer has to see how they do not add up. If I were making a bridge and made the kind of elemental errors that Musk's people did in the BFR and the Hyperloop, I would not get a permit for the bridge, and if I found the way to do the bridge without the permit anyway, I would go to jail.

I have no idea how Musk (or his team) managed to design and produce the Tesla cars with a reasonable or good standard of safety, and then managed to design a rocket with no consideration for safety at all. The same goes for the Hyperloop. One of the explanations I have read is that Tesla is bleeding money, and SpaceX has worked but only with the mostly standard products. That looks like he chose good people to make the spaceships and did not do the engineering himself.

But no, not even believing that he is not a good engineer can you accept that he is saying he will take people halfway around the world for less than the price of the fuel. That is not optimism, that is a hidden agenda we have not yet discovered.

I'm an engineer as well and I approve this message. Sub-orbital travel with the BFR does not survive a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Therefore this (and the Hyperloop) are the tech equivalent of fake news.

Elon Musk is a marketing genius. The BFR and Hyperloop are ways to keep himself in the spotlight as a real-life ironman. The general public and journalists don't really care that the ideas don't really work. Musk's aura helps the stock price of his more regular companies. Solar roofs, electric cars and batteries are real big businesses that are helped by his mystique. He might very well succeed in that, but to do that he needs massive capital that is based on daring (or even irrational) evaluations. That needs free publicity.

Jeff Bezos is also good that generating free publicity based on flawed concepts. Every year in the Christmas buying season you can expect a drone delivery video, even though he knows full well that that idea will never fly.  See discussion on that here: https://sguforums.com/index.php/topic,47866

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2017, 02:04:22 PM »
I don't really care if he has some wacky ideas, or if he's promoting himself. I care about the cars his company builds, since I hate gasoline. I love my Tesla Roadster, and I'm looking forward to getting a Model 3, which won't be as gorgeous or as much fun, but will have a better safety rating and more safety features.
Daniel
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-- Otto von Bismarck

Offline The Latinist

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Re: Episode #639
« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2017, 03:48:50 PM »
I'm an engineer as well and I approve this message. Sub-orbital travel with the BFR does not survive a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Therefore this (and the Hyperloop) are the tech equivalent of fake news.

If we assume that Musk knows suborbital flights will never be more than at best a curiosity, I have to ask myself why he's abandoning his current technology roadmap in favor of it.  Is it a better solution for orbital resupply?  Or is he sacrificing efficiency in his bread-and-butter to improve his chances of a successful Mars mission?
I would like to propose...that...it is undesirable to believe in a proposition when there is no ground whatever for supposing it true. — Bertrand Russell

 

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