Author Topic: Episode #659  (Read 4093 times)

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Offline lonely moa

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2018, 03:19:24 AM »
The amount of water used per unit of food is laughable, really.  A rough calculation tells me that my cattle rate about 150L/Kg of edible meat and my guess is that my soil microbes are doing a great nob of sequestering more carbon than the cattle exhale.  Not sure of what amount of water/Kg of beef Cara said but I assume she only parroted something she read. 

I didn't hear the amount of water per unit of rice was (or the amount of methane produced).
"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2018, 08:20:13 AM »
The amount of water used per unit of food is laughable, really.  A rough calculation tells me that my cattle rate about 150L/Kg of edible meat and my guess is that my soil microbes are doing a great nob of sequestering more carbon than the cattle exhale.  Not sure of what amount of water/Kg of beef Cara said but I assume she only parroted something she read. 

I didn't hear the amount of water per unit of rice was (or the amount of methane produced).

I think your cattle are entirely pasture raised. This is not the case for meat available in grocery stores. And it's not just the water the animals drink. It's also the water used to raise the food they eat. In your case that would be (I presume) the rain on your pasture. In the case of commercial meat that's the water used to raise all the hay they eat and all the grain they eat. And since cows are about 10% efficient at turning plant matter into meat, the cows are using ten times as much water as it would take to feed the same number of people on plants, plus the water the cows drink.
Daniel
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"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."
-- Otto von Bismarck

Offline Swagomatic

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2018, 12:53:24 PM »
Is anyone else having trouble with getting the podcast this week?  I tried to listen in Pocket Casts, and no dice.  Next, I went to the website directly, again, no dice.  Last ditch, I tried i-tunes, and it still would not work.  I'm flummoxed.

ETA:  I was able to download it to my Pocket Casts app on my phone, so I have it now, but I still can't access the premium feed.  ???
« Last Edit: February 26, 2018, 12:59:08 PM by Swagomatic »
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Offline lonely moa

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2018, 12:53:39 PM »
The amount of water used per unit of food is laughable, really.  A rough calculation tells me that my cattle rate about 150L/Kg of edible meat and my guess is that my soil microbes are doing a great nob of sequestering more carbon than the cattle exhale.  Not sure of what amount of water/Kg of beef Cara said but I assume she only parroted something she read. 

I didn't hear the amount of water per unit of rice was (or the amount of methane produced).

I think your cattle are entirely pasture raised. This is not the case for meat available in grocery stores. And it's not just the water the animals drink. It's also the water used to raise the food they eat. In your case that would be (I presume) the rain on your pasture. In the case of commercial meat that's the water used to raise all the hay they eat and all the grain they eat. And since cows are about 10% efficient at turning plant matter into meat, the cows are using ten times as much water as it would take to feed the same number of people on plants, plus the water the cows drink.

In America... There are no feed lots in NZ.  All the  213,402 tonnes of meat (about NZ $1.5 billion) sent to the USA is raised similarly to my yearly two dozen animals.  I reckon you don't think this is a 'commercial" amount of beef. 
"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.

Offline werecow

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2018, 12:59:37 PM »
Is anyone else having trouble with getting the podcast this week?  I tried to listen in Pocket Casts, and no dice.  Next, I went to the website directly, again, no dice.  Last ditch, I tried i-tunes, and it still would not work.  I'm flummoxed.

I got it from here without any trouble.
Mooohn!

Offline Swagomatic

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2018, 01:20:54 PM »
Is anyone else having trouble with getting the podcast this week?  I tried to listen in Pocket Casts, and no dice.  Next, I went to the website directly, again, no dice.  Last ditch, I tried i-tunes, and it still would not work.  I'm flummoxed.

I got it from here without any trouble.

I just rebooted my system, and now it's all good.    Just a weird glitch, I guess - now everything works.  I should have tried that from the git-go.
Thanks
Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.
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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2018, 07:10:04 PM »
The amount of water used per unit of food is laughable, really.  A rough calculation tells me that my cattle rate about 150L/Kg of edible meat and my guess is that my soil microbes are doing a great nob of sequestering more carbon than the cattle exhale.  Not sure of what amount of water/Kg of beef Cara said but I assume she only parroted something she read. 

I didn't hear the amount of water per unit of rice was (or the amount of methane produced).

I think your cattle are entirely pasture raised. This is not the case for meat available in grocery stores. And it's not just the water the animals drink. It's also the water used to raise the food they eat. In your case that would be (I presume) the rain on your pasture. In the case of commercial meat that's the water used to raise all the hay they eat and all the grain they eat. And since cows are about 10% efficient at turning plant matter into meat, the cows are using ten times as much water as it would take to feed the same number of people on plants, plus the water the cows drink.

In America... There are no feed lots in NZ.  All the  213,402 tonnes of meat (about NZ $1.5 billion) sent to the USA is raised similarly to my yearly two dozen animals.  I reckon you don't think this is a 'commercial" amount of beef. 

As you say, New Zealand exports about 613,000,000 pounds of beef to the U.S. per year. The U.S. consumes about 24,000,000,000 pounds of beef per year. So New Zealand beef amounts to about 2.5% of U.S. beef consumption. A drop in the bucket if we're looking at overall production and total water use.

And here's an article about a feed lot in New Zealand that doubles the weight of cows by feeding them grain for 250 days. This particular feed lot produces for the Japanese market, but there's at least one feed lot in NZ:

https://teara.govt.nz/en/photograph/17350/five-star-feed-lot

And here's the article from the Guardian, quoting the Institution of Mechanical Engineers on water use for various foods, and also talking about food waste: (I think it unlikely that the IME published this without doing a thorough analysis.)

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jan/10/how-much-water-food-production-waste
Daniel
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"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."
-- Otto von Bismarck

Offline lucek

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2018, 09:29:12 PM »
The amount of water used per unit of food is laughable, really.  A rough calculation tells me that my cattle rate about 150L/Kg of edible meat and my guess is that my soil microbes are doing a great nob of sequestering more carbon than the cattle exhale.  Not sure of what amount of water/Kg of beef Cara said but I assume she only parroted something she read. 

I didn't hear the amount of water per unit of rice was (or the amount of methane produced).
Rice is grown in patties. Patties that are flooded. I imagine cranberries are high on the water ratio for the same reason.
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Power is just energy over time and. . .
Energy is just the ability to do work.

Offline lonely moa

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2018, 03:01:20 AM »


And here's an article about a feed lot in New Zealand that doubles the weight of cows by feeding them grain for 250 days. This particular feed lot produces for the Japanese market, but there's at least one feed lot in NZ:



You're correct. The Five Star feed lot in Ashburton (Ash Vegas, we call it, and only 30 k's from our farm) grows Kobe beef for a strictly Japanese market.  The cattle are not only strictly bred for the purpose, but are taken for walks, fed beer and listen to music.  Not your standard feedlot.  They might even wipe the steers arses.

"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.

Offline Bessantj

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2018, 06:22:49 AM »
Cool of you to take your daughter to the metal concert :evan:. I do like a good metal concert you can really let loose in the pit. Though these days getting close to forty I'm more likely to be standing towards the back with a pint in my hand.

Offline werecow

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #25 on: February 27, 2018, 06:37:56 AM »
I think Steve's right that the logical fallacy discussed on this week's show is a subcategory of hasty generalization, but it's more specific, and it's common enough that maybe it should get it's own name. Maybe it should be named something along the lines of "hasty extrapolation"?
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Offline Fast Eddie B

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #26 on: February 27, 2018, 07:36:33 AM »
“Hasty Generalization” is what popped into my mind.

But if one is arguing based on a misunderstanding of how the physical world works, is that really fallacious reasoning?

For example, one would do better to explain how the effect of drug doses actually work, addressing not the logic of the argument but the factual basis of it.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #27 on: February 27, 2018, 08:36:01 AM »


And here's an article about a feed lot in New Zealand that doubles the weight of cows by feeding them grain for 250 days. This particular feed lot produces for the Japanese market, but there's at least one feed lot in NZ:



You're correct. The Five Star feed lot in Ashburton (Ash Vegas, we call it, and only 30 k's from our farm) grows Kobe beef for a strictly Japanese market.  The cattle are not only strictly bred for the purpose, but are taken for walks, fed beer and listen to music.  Not your standard feedlot.  They might even wipe the steers arses.

Beer? No wonder they claim the cows are happy. ;D

Cool of you to take your daughter to the metal concert :evan:. I do like a good metal concert you can really let loose in the pit. Though these days getting close to forty I'm more likely to be standing towards the back with a pint in my hand.

I'm not much of a concert goer, but I had a really great time when my mother and I went to a concert in London. Quite by accident, walking around town, we stumbled upon St. Martin in the Fields (one of the most famous concert halls in the world, and justifiably so, as the sound was superb) and went to a concert there. I think it might have been something by Handel.

I'll let you young whippersnappers go to the concerts where people scream and get crushed.
Daniel
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-- Otto von Bismarck

Offline werecow

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #28 on: February 27, 2018, 11:42:08 AM »
“Hasty Generalization” is what popped into my mind.

But if one is arguing based on a misunderstanding of how the physical world works, is that really fallacious reasoning?

For example, one would do better to explain how the effect of drug doses actually work, addressing not the logic of the argument but the factual basis of it.

Well, extrapolating a linear regression trend to unknown extremes from a model based on less extreme data points, for example, can be considered a statistical fallacy. The idea is that, while the linear relationship might hold locally for the points you have examined and any that lie close by, it may ultimately be an inadequate model when you look at extreme examples that are outside your experience.
Mooohn!

Offline Alex Simmons

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Re: Episode #659
« Reply #29 on: February 27, 2018, 03:28:16 PM »
“Hasty Generalization” is what popped into my mind.

But if one is arguing based on a misunderstanding of how the physical world works, is that really fallacious reasoning?

For example, one would do better to explain how the effect of drug doses actually work, addressing not the logic of the argument but the factual basis of it.

Well, extrapolating a linear regression trend to unknown extremes from a model based on less extreme data points, for example, can be considered a statistical fallacy. The idea is that, while the linear relationship might hold locally for the points you have examined and any that lie close by, it may ultimately be an inadequate model when you look at extreme examples that are outside your experience.
For models it's important to recognise their domain of validity. Once you stray outside that, all bets are off.

 

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