Author Topic: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK  (Read 17530 times)

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Offline goatboy1290

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Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« on: March 16, 2018, 07:04:08 AM »
As a skeptic I have reserved judgement on this until the 'facts' are in. Our government has decided not to do this and the media have done their usual and fallen into line.

Some inconvenient questions:

1. Novichok is a binary agent i.e. can be synthesised relatively easily (with a bench lab) from non lethal and commercially available ingredients. Why are the Russians military/intelligence services then the only possible culprits?
2. Novichok works almost instantly and since the victims were in a Restaurant at the time why has there been no information regarding tracking potential suspects? (CCTV / interviews / normal police work)
3. Porton Down, the Uk's main chem/bio research lab is 7 miles from the attack site - is that perhaps just a little too convenient?

And a very simple question, why would a superpower with a highly sophisticated intelligence apparatus operating with decades of experience choose a nerve agent with a Russian name, a Russian history and attack a Russian agent. The main hypothesis is that the Russian just don't give a f**k and they want everybody, especially rogue agents to know it. This kind of flies in the face of the vast majority of historical assassinations. There's a reason they call it the 'secret' service! What they have gained is minor compared to the international capital that Theresa May and the conservatives are reaping just now. There is nothing like an affront to national security to suspend critical faculties while you rush through a new set of objectives. It is vital that we skeptics remain vigilant and hold our politicians and media to account. The burden of proof is far from overcome in this case, indeed the real investigation seems to have barely started, if it has started at all.

What do you think, am I delude commie sympethiser who ought to fall into line behind my country in its time of need and stand up to Russian aggression? Or is there a bigger picture worth investigating here?

Goatboy

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/15/uks-claims-questioned-doubts-emerge-about-source-of-salisburys-novichok

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/novichok-agent
« Last Edit: March 16, 2018, 07:37:36 AM by goatboy1290 »

Offline albator

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2018, 09:07:58 AM »
As a skeptic I have reserved judgement on this until the 'facts' are in. Our government has decided not to do this and the media have done their usual and fallen into line.
So, you don't have the information your gourvernement used to make their decision but as a skeptic you determined nonetheless they did it without the facts.

1. No, that's not what binary agent means, what make you think that it can be easily synthesised from commercially available products?
2. What make you think they don't? How did they recreate the incident, by divination?
3. I thought the agent was really easy to produce on a bench lab. Also, what's the walking distance proximity have to do with anything, the agent is not hard to transport.

Quote
This kind of flies in the face of the vast majority of historical assassinations.

Alexander Litvinenko was indeed really surprised.

Offline goatboy1290

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2018, 11:10:05 AM »
1. "Binary" agent means that the weaponised chemical agent is synthesised from two precursor agents (unless I am misled by the various sources I have read) - this is only really beneficial when the binary agents are safer and thus more easily transported and handled. In the case of most Novichok agents particularly:

'would be easier to produce using methods and materials prevalent in pesticides industries' (quote from this website https://theconversation.com/what-we-know-about-novichok-the-newby-nerve-agents-linked-to-russia-93264)

2. There has been no feedback to our houses of parliament regarding substantive (material) evidence. Our Mp's will shortly be asked to make decisions regarding policy decisions / extraditions / sanctions etc. They certainly require feedback to make informed decisions. What is to be gained by hiding the fact that other leads are being followed up. The details need not be disclosed immediately but there is no such feedback. Indeed we are being told that the information we currently have is already enough. This is ridiculous. It is vital that we have other evidence before moving forward.

3. The distance to the Porton Down research facility is simply a weird anomaly. Such things might be significant or not. What is significant is that the time between receiving a dose and feeling an effect is only 2-4 mins. They were in a restaurant prior to getting ill. That means the person who delivered it most likely entered the restaurant. There is no significant incubation period. Were the no witnesses to this event. Why has nobody been interviewed on the news? There is a blackout in place perhaps.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2018, 11:19:06 AM »
1. Novichok is a binary agent i.e. can be synthesised relatively easily (with a bench lab) from non lethal and commercially available ingredient

False definition.

Quote
2. Novichok works almost instantly and since the victims were in a Restaurant at the time why has there been no information regarding tracking potential suspects? (CCTV / interviews / normal police work)

Assumes both delivery method and information disclosure.

Quote
3. Porton Down, the Uk's main chem/bio research lab is 7 miles from the attack site - is that perhaps just a little too convenient?

Red Herring.

Quote
What do you think, am I delude commie sympethiser who ought to fall into line behind my country in its time of need and stand up to Russian aggression? Or is there a bigger picture worth investigating here?

They're not commies.  They're a right-wing oligarchy and thoroughly capitalist. 


What's your motive for this lazy 'Just Asking Questions' routine?
« Last Edit: March 16, 2018, 11:50:37 AM by Soldier of FORTRAN »
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Offline Belgarath

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2018, 11:30:31 AM »
Say I assume for a second that what you say is correct.  That Novichok is a ' binary' agent that can very simply be made using two precursor agents on a desktop lab.  Here's the unstated major premise.  You're assuming that the two precursors are simple to create or obtain.  Perhaps those are EXTREMELY difficult to make, such that only Russia figured out how to do it in the 80's and 90's.  Perhaps that's how they know Russia did it......

#non-belief denialist

Offline PANTS!

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2018, 03:05:45 PM »
At what mileage does the Chemical plant no longer seem too convenient to you?
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Offline JohnM

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2018, 06:46:40 PM »
This has been an interesting conspiracy to follow on twitter for last few days.

The Guardian recently had someone write an op-ed stating more or less what the OP said but then in his tweets, he was blaming Israel/Mossod and lots of MPs were tweeting him. Whoops!

It seems to be a lasting legacy of the Iraq war that intelligence agencies are no longer trusted.

Today it's all blown up with #hatgate where Jeremy Corbyn fans have started a conspiracy that BBCs newsnight - UKs has most well known late night current affairs show - doctored an image to make Corbyn look like a Russian stooge. But this has also been thoroughly debunked.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2018, 06:51:40 PM »
I'd be surprised if they stooped to Fox News level:
... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.

Offline Harry Black

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2018, 06:52:19 PM »
At what mileage does the Chemical plant no longer seem too convenient to you?
7 miles in London is a fucking eternity.

Offline PANTS!

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2018, 08:53:26 AM »
At what mileage does the Chemical plant no longer seem too convenient to you?
7 miles in London is a fucking eternity.


Ha.  True that.  You just dredged up some bad memories.
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Offline Belgarath

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2018, 09:33:03 AM »
This has been an interesting conspiracy to follow on twitter for last few days.

The Guardian recently had someone write an op-ed stating more or less what the OP said but then in his tweets, he was blaming Israel/Mossod and lots of MPs were tweeting him. Whoops!

It seems to be a lasting legacy of the Iraq war that intelligence agencies are no longer trusted.

Today it's all blown up with #hatgate where Jeremy Corbyn fans have started a conspiracy that BBCs newsnight - UKs has most well known late night current affairs show - doctored an image to make Corbyn look like a Russian stooge. But this has also been thoroughly debunked.

Oh wait, really?  Do you have links to the debunk of Corbyn's picture?  I have a friend who shared this all over facebook yesterday... 
#non-belief denialist

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2018, 10:38:30 AM »
And a very simple question, why would a superpower with a highly sophisticated intelligence apparatus operating with decades of experience choose a nerve agent with a Russian name, a Russian history and attack a Russian agent. The main hypothesis is that the Russian just don't give a f**k and they want everybody, especially rogue agents to know it. This kind of flies in the face of the vast majority of historical assassinations.

One possible motivation I have read about is that it is an upcoming election in Russia. However, Putin is worried about low voter turnout and by creating an international crisis and controversy around Russia, he can rally the Russian people around him, and thereby strengthen his support and voter turnout. When the West imposed sanction on Russia after its invsaion of Ukraine, Putin experienced increased popular support. Putin benefits from Russia being condemned by the West as it helps him to consolidate his power.

There could also be a message from Russia to defectors that the Russian government can always get them, wherever they are. Of course Russia officially denies that they did it, but everyone knows that Russia did it, and Russia has obviously made it very easy for the British authorities to find out it was them, very likely on purpose.

I think both of those reasons can be behind it.

Also, which other state or organization would have an interest in attacking a defector from Russia? Just that factor would make Russia the first direction to look at, and the evidence piles up in that direction as well.
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Offline Belgarath

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2018, 10:49:47 AM »
And a very simple question, why would a superpower with a highly sophisticated intelligence apparatus operating with decades of experience choose a nerve agent with a Russian name, a Russian history and attack a Russian agent. The main hypothesis is that the Russian just don't give a f**k and they want everybody, especially rogue agents to know it. This kind of flies in the face of the vast majority of historical assassinations.

One possible motivation I have read about is that it is an upcoming election in Russia. However, Putin is worried about low voter turnout and by creating an international crisis and controversy around Russia, he can rally the Russian people around him, and thereby strengthen his support and voter turnout. When the West imposed sanction on Russia after its invsaion of Ukraine, Putin experienced increased popular support. Putin benefits from Russia being condemned by the West as it helps him to consolidate his power.

There could also be a message from Russia to defectors that the Russian government can always get them, wherever they are. Of course Russia officially denies that they did it, but everyone knows that Russia did it, and Russia has obviously made it very easy for the British authorities to find out it was them, very likely on purpose.

I think both of those reasons can be behind it.

Also, which other state or organization would have an interest in attacking a defector from Russia? Just that factor would make Russia the first direction to look at, and the evidence piles up in that direction as well.

Of course it's a message from Russia to Russian defectors and potential Russian defectors.  It's Putin saying to them 'nowhere is safe, I will find you and I will kill you'

Interesting that our thread starter has disappeared.  Russian Troll account anyone?
#non-belief denialist

Offline PANTS!

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2018, 04:28:41 PM »
And a very simple question, why would a superpower with a highly sophisticated intelligence apparatus operating with decades of experience choose a nerve agent with a Russian name, a Russian history and attack a Russian agent. The main hypothesis is that the Russian just don't give a f**k and they want everybody, especially rogue agents to know it. This kind of flies in the face of the vast majority of historical assassinations.

One possible motivation I have read about is that it is an upcoming election in Russia. However, Putin is worried about low voter turnout and by creating an international crisis and controversy around Russia, he can rally the Russian people around him, and thereby strengthen his support and voter turnout. When the West imposed sanction on Russia after its invsaion of Ukraine, Putin experienced increased popular support. Putin benefits from Russia being condemned by the West as it helps him to consolidate his power.

There could also be a message from Russia to defectors that the Russian government can always get them, wherever they are. Of course Russia officially denies that they did it, but everyone knows that Russia did it, and Russia has obviously made it very easy for the British authorities to find out it was them, very likely on purpose.

I think both of those reasons can be behind it.

Also, which other state or organization would have an interest in attacking a defector from Russia? Just that factor would make Russia the first direction to look at, and the evidence piles up in that direction as well.

Of course it's a message from Russia to Russian defectors and potential Russian defectors.  It's Putin saying to them 'nowhere is safe, I will find you and I will kill you'

Interesting that our thread starter has disappeared.  Russian Troll account anyone?

This is nothing but speculation, but it could also be a message to people who witness against Putin, et. al.  IE a message to Manafort, Flynn, those 13 Russians and others who are getting indicted left and right by Muller
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Offline gebobs

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Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2018, 11:28:11 AM »
Obviously, the novichok could not have come from the Russians. According to the Russian ambassador to the UK, the Russians stopped production of all chemical agents in 1992.

QED