Topic: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK

[Harry Black]

What you 'imagine' an agent 'would' do is absolutely irrelevant. It depends on how long since their last nerve agent refresher. It depends on whether or not they actually got that training in the first place (not everyone does in NATO organisations and the Russians are notoriously ad hoc when it comes to investment in their people. The training gaps Ive seen in former spetsnaz/FSB people I briefly worked with were jaw dropping.

On top of that, Putin, as a gangster head of state whose corrupt influence on the process of democracy in his country is no secret and whos way of dealing with domestic critics is brutal and pretty much illegal even in his own country, had opponents and critics who have previously been executed on his birthday or killed/intimidated in ways that strongly point to government supported actions and seem to pass a message of "I know you know but what are you going to do about it?"
So this not being a russian action IS technically possible, but is only the likely conclusion in the face of world wide specialist opinion if:

You do not believe Putin has previously had opponents murdered, brutalised and imprisoned.

You believe he is a legitimately elected leader who has not interfered with the ability of opposing parties to campaign and participate.

You do not believe that his government has previously poisoned Russian citizens in the UK.

How do you feel about those statements? If you require me to go and find links then you probably arent informed enough on the subject to be playing devils advocate just yet.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Salisbury nerve agent attack: Sergei Skripal and daughter Yulia 'should be allowed to die'

Truly a sad situation if they are expected to be severely mentally impaired even if they survive.

Let's not be hasty, Yulia seems to be improving rapidly.

Yes, there were some positive news since I posted my post.

[goatboy1290]

You are right in so far as what I believe is irrelevant, but the problem with matters of national security and advanced chemical warfare is we, the ignorant public, must rely on what we can dig up on the internet i.e. what is in the public domain. Thankfully, these days, that knowledge is not insignificant and it is at our fingertips. The best that I can, lets say 'extrapolate' is that the agent used is extremely fast acting. I assume your reference to 'refreshers' has something to do with some kind of inoculation against the effects of chemical agents. That seems somewhat unlikely (The daughter was not an agent)? I must press the relevant point here. How could these two people be attacked without any trace of the agents responsible being tracked if the delay between delivering the agent was hours at most and more likely seconds or minutes?

WRT Putin and his 'gangster' credentials. I think it best to ignore the wider geopolitical issues while this question remains unanswered. It would be great sport to trade blows over this but it leads nowhere. We each have our biases and they lead to an ever widening circle of doubts that are supported more by belief than evidence.

If we are truly skeptical people we owe it to ourselves to rise above the political and the partisan. We should be investigative in our motives and inpartial in our discourse. Yes, I am suspicious of our governments, ever more so since the tragic decision to go to war in 2003. I also have no love for despotic leaders of any stripe. But lies and manipulation are not inventions of the Russian state. If we want to carry the public with us in our fight to push back against despotic regimes we need to do better than 'dodgy dossiers' and disastrous wars.

Another cold war is not what I want for my kids. There ought to be a knowable truth to this incident. No crime is perfect, and if the Russians are playing as fast and loose as we are claiming then the supporting evidence ought not to be hard to find. Don't you think?

[Soldier of FORTRAN]

Context is always relevant.  It's rank denialism to eschew context. 

And what is that context?  It's consistent with an existing and long-standing pattern of behavior.  Oh no!

I'm inclined to think the Russians did it.  It doesn't look like too much information has been released yet so the thing to do now is wait and see -- not engage in denialism.

Edit:  I just skimmed three articles and it looks like we're waiting on OPCW's processing of samples.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Russia wants to meet Yulia Skripal, following news of her health improvement: Russian spy: UK considers request to visit Yulia Skripal

I wonder what the purpose is.

Presuming they are referring to that same request, Russia was denied to make the visit: Russia demands to know why it has been denied access to the Skripals

I wonder what was behind that decision. Did Yulia decline to see the Russians? Or did the British authorities on their own for some reason rule it to be a bad idea? Or something else entirely?

[goatboy1290]

Context is the realm that the secret services operate in. That is their realm of influence. Context assumes 'belief', 'norms' and 'received wisdoms'. Without these things human beings could not make instant decisions, especially considering they almost always lack adequate information. Politics moves too fast to wait for 'facts', 'evidence' or 'reality' to weigh in. Entire nations of normal human beings can be moved to annihilate millions of other human beings when this situation becomes entrenched. Our willingness to believe that 'we' are righteous and 'they' are wrong is the starting point for poor decisions at the least and genocide at the worst. Consider for a moment the idea that the killing of two individuals could greatly advance the case of the whole NATO bloc. It is not inconceivable. The US/UK and other allied nations have been willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives to progress political ends in the middle East. They currently are willing to deny yet more millions the right to sanctuary as a result of these gross violations in the name of 'regime change' etc etc etc. Get a grip! These large superpowers are willing to sacrifice without conscience. Russia's actions across the globe only echo our own gross abuses of power in invading countless nations over the last two decades. Does anybody need a history lesson here? Russia invaded Afghanistan and failed. We had a go, and failed. 9/11 happened and was blamed on Iraq!!!!!  Meanwhile Saudi Arabia where the 9/11 bombers and most Islamist terror stems from enjoy great diplomatic relations and a roaring arms trade. They continue to perpetrate a war in Yemen that is daily killing countless innocent children and yet hear we sit arguing the toss over two Russian agents killed in the UK. Their deaths do matter however. as the truth always matters. The Iraq debacle eventually hinged on an intelligence dossier that was populated with known half truths and self evident lies. A PHD student mused about Iraq having the capability to send WMD's into Europe in 45 mins and the UK parliament went into cognitive meltdown. The UN was ignored, the rule of law suspended. HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS DIE and still people pontificate on the 'gangsterism' of Putin. His crimes remain yet paltry in comparison to the sustained and nonsensical industry of aggression that the UK/US and other perpetuate daily across the globe. Look it up ffs! For every ill the Russians have committed we have committed 10. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya the entire continent of South America. Christ the USA even traded drugs to their own ghettos in order to raise funds to fight an illegal war against the Contra's.   Look it up!

'I am inclined to think the Russian's did it', Don't make me laugh, of course you are. You've been told the Russian did everything since you were 5. Hell , they probably stole your bike! At least entertain the idea that when two sides are at war the rules go out the window on both sides. We, you and I are meant to be the third side. We are in the middle. We should believe neither side. We should seek evidence and believe nothing, absolutely nothing, till the evidence supports it. The stakes are far too high.

Lets ask:

1. What EXACTLY is the chemical that was used.
2. What EXACTLY are its effects.
3. What does this say about the ability of the suspects to deliver it and get away.
4. Who could have made such chemicals.
5. Who else would have motive to kill the Skripals (including NATO and allies).
6. What other evidence has been generated and why don't we have access to it given the huge international implications.
7. And finally, Why are the deaths of 2 individuals suddenly so much more important than the daily deaths of hundreds in countless other battles and wars where the ends are allied with our own. Don't give me the WMD BS, the allies used Uranium enriched warheads in the first Iraq conflict. Zero, nada, nothing blowback.

'Denialism'. This is what you say I am engaged in. Its an open and shut case for you. I think you need to read far more, FAR MORE history than you appear to have so far. Look up 'the school of the Americas' for a laugh and have a jolly jaunt through the last 3 decades of illegal war against multitudes of countries in South America. This template of aggression tells you all you need too know about what the US (and likely its allies) are willing to get up to in the name of defeating 'communism'. For communism you can substitute any buzzword you care to over the last few decades......terrorism, Islamism, fundamentalism. One thing you can bet. The US/UK and allies have written textbooks on this stuff. Yes, you can download handbooks/textbooks/lectures aplenty dedicated to the subject of affecting terror on nations. There's an entire branch of military education devoted to this shit and you seem completely unaware of it. Wht the hell do you think our secret services get up to? You imagine some benign 'James Bond' shagging burds and offing the odd deluded billionaire. Our forces are out here raping nation states ona daily basis. If you don't know that then you need to check your own context and question how much 'denialism' you are engaging in. ooft!!!

[Soldier of FORTRAN]

We should nuke Russia just to prevent more of these conversations.

Preventative measures.

Edit: You write like you're getting paid by the word and are literally working off a list of recommended debate techniques. 

[Belgarath]

Wall of text critically hits you for 8572 HP.   You die.

[PANTS!]

Calm down Boris.  Stop proposing you have access to answers via Google that MI5 can't get.

Also stop pretending questions are evidence.  That is the balliwick of Conspiracy Theorists.

There may be a discussion to be had around this, but who wants to engage with someone who is anomaly hunting and being very self righteous about it.  It is boring and frustrating.

[Harry Black]

Fun fact- Paid russian trolls are not actually allowed to directly criticise Putin.
Anyone who can talk about russia for this long without acknowledging that he is a criminal piece of shit is highly suspect in their motivation or perspective.

[goatboy1290]

That's your response. Word count. Pfft....

And lets 'Nuke em'....ok I see what I'm dealing with here. That's sad.

I thought this forum was a place for skeptics. Does skeptical thought only kick in when your cultural, political, emotional preconceptions are satisfied? It isn't easy to be skeptical when every piece of information is managed and manipulated but you must try. You must at least consider the possibility that the truth is more complex than what the major news outlets are telling us.

One more time, my position is undecided. I am willing at this point to believe a multitude of alternative narratives. I merely posit that the first one being given to us may not be entirely true. In order to decide we need facts. Facts that have been established through rigorous scrutiny. Biases can help us to predict what 'may' be true but I would argue it is a very poor way to go about it. There are far too many unknowns in this case. That our politicians don't seem to care is very worrying.

Lets wait and see what the science boffins tell us about the chemical and its actual effects. Perhaps Ms Skripal can shed some light on how they fell ill (and where?).

Till then......

[Harry Black]

Cool.
In the meantime, maybe have a look around some other topics and maybe even join in with the forum mafia game (they need new players).
But perhaps those topics domt count as incentivised productive work. Im sure you have many other forums to hit up before lunch.

[PANTS!]

Why is it always "I thought this was a skeptical forum" when no one buys the line of horshit?

Look, NOT buying into some anonymous yahoo's brain farts laid bare is exactly what make this forum a skeptical forum.  Sorry if your postings won't get you to the front of the breadline today, Boris.  Your country is falling apart.  Go do something useful there.

[bimble]

Russia wants to meet Yulia Skripal, following news of her health improvement: Russian spy: UK considers request to visit Yulia Skripal

I wonder what the purpose is.

Presuming they are referring to that same request, Russia was denied to make the visit: Russia demands to know why it has been denied access to the Skripals

I wonder what was behind that decision. Did Yulia decline to see the Russians? Or did the British authorities on their own for some reason rule it to be a bad idea? Or something else entirely?

Well, Sergei Skripal has been given British citizenship, whereas his daughter, Yulia, is still a Russian citizen, and under the Vienna Convention, legally, the British Government can't prevent a consular visit from the Russian embassy. Especially if they don't want Russia to play the same trick of refusing a visit to a British citizen being held in Russia by Russian authorities (the football world cup is being held there later this year, there will be a lot of England fans travelling over, and Russian fans aren't known for being the most peaceful supporters).

[Quetzalcoatl]

I thought this forum was a place for skeptics. Does skeptical thought only kick in when your cultural, political, emotional preconceptions are satisfied? It isn't easy to be skeptical when every piece of information is managed and manipulated but you must try. You must at least consider the possibility that the truth is more complex than what the major news outlets are telling us.

I think you confuse "skeptic" with "conspiracy theorist".

Lets wait and see what the science boffins tell us about the chemical and its actual effects. Perhaps Ms Skripal can shed some light on how they fell ill (and where?).

I would not be surprised if any such information would stay with the British police and intelligence services, and never be made public.

I think this would be an interesting topic for the SGU to discuss, as it involves conspiracy thinking and interpreting data and evidence, but it is probably "too political" for them.