Author Topic: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK  (Read 15473 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline goatboy1290

  • Not Enough Spare Time
  • **
  • Posts: 130
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #45 on: April 02, 2018, 08:53:59 AM »
I would be very interested to see what the SJU would make of this debate we have been having.

Quote
Why is it always "I thought this was a skeptical forum" when no one buys the line of horshit?

skeptic. 'a person who questions the validity or authenticity of something purporting to be factual. a person who maintains a doubting attitude, as toward values, plans, statements, or the character of others. a person who doubts the truth of a religion, especially Christianity, or of important elements of it.'

Ignoring the bit about Christianity explain to me how my position is not skeptical while your position is. It seems that the majority of posters on this thread have made their mind up. This seems to me to be the very definition of UN-skeptical. A conspiracy theory is one that flies in the face of an overwhelming body of evidence. If you believe that such a body of evidence already exists then the bar has been set very low. We have no word from the Skripals, no insight into the evidence collected by the police, no independent analysis of samples yet undertaken. When these elements indicate that the Russians are to blame then I can make a more informed judgement and will be quite happy to accept that the Russians were likely to blame. Why the rush to do so just now? The push back I am experiencing here based on what we 'know' about the Russians takes us further and further from being skeptical and when I make such a point the response is to call me a troll!

I wasn't that long ago that several hundred of our own MP's and the majority of the voting public were convinced that Iraq had WMD. To suggest otherwise was to invoke conspiracy theory logic. It wasn't just likely they had WMD's it was 'certain'. Remember Bush/Rice/Cheney etc trumpeting this endlessly on the news. Creating an unassailable narrative and justifying war. I bring this up not because I am a 'Putin fan' or because I hate my own country, but because we must realise that our governments (indeed all governments) are capable of lying on an enormous scale when it suits their political needs. Is that what is going on here? I don't know. That is why I insist on a higher standard of proof than currently seems acceptable.

I am not a troll or a bot. I am skeptic and one that is willing to hold out longer than most it would seem before making a final judgement. Would I really make the effort like this if I was on here to insult and incite chaos.

If my crime is reserving judgement then I am guilty as charged!


Online Harry Black

  • International Man of Mystery
  • Global Moderator
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • *****
  • Posts: 15838
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #46 on: April 02, 2018, 09:03:03 AM »
I thought this forum was a place for skeptics. Does skeptical thought only kick in when your cultural, political, emotional preconceptions are satisfied? It isn't easy to be skeptical when every piece of information is managed and manipulated but you must try. You must at least consider the possibility that the truth is more complex than what the major news outlets are telling us.

I think you confuse "skeptic" with "conspiracy theorist".

Lets wait and see what the science boffins tell us about the chemical and its actual effects. Perhaps Ms Skripal can shed some light on how they fell ill (and where?).

I would not be surprised if any such information would stay with the British police and intelligence services, and never be made public.

I think this would be an interesting topic for the SGU to discuss, as it involves conspiracy thinking and interpreting data and evidence, but it is probably "too political" for them.
Yeah. They have a habit of losing stuff-

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/26/government-admits-losing-thousands-of-papers-from-national-archives

Offline PANTS!

  • One leg at a time.
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 11766
  • What seals? I auditioned for this job.
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #47 on: April 02, 2018, 09:15:54 AM »
I would be very interested to see what the SJU would make of this debate we have been having.

Quote
Why is it always "I thought this was a skeptical forum" when no one buys the line of horshit?

If my crime is reserving judgement then I am guilty as charged!

That is not your "crime", for you have not reserved judgement. 

I can't speak for everyone, but I haven't made up my mind.  I just think that given prior probabilities and no evidence to the contrary it is likely that the Russians are the culprit.  Am I 100% sure?  No.  Maybe 80% sure.  And until I get some evidence to the contrary I am not willing to change that probability.  Some anon dude-bro asking leading questions is not evidence.  Nor is posting the dictionary definition of skeptic.

Oh - and whether you know it or not, you work for the Russians.  If you are not officially a troll, then that's on you for not getting paid to post Russian propaganda CTs on the interwebs.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2018, 09:38:31 AM by PANTS! »
Now where I come from
We don't let society tell us how it's supposed to be
-Uptown, Prince 👉

The world is on its elbows and knees
It's forgotten the message and worships the creeds

Offline Sawyer

  • Well Established
  • *****
  • Posts: 1372
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #48 on: April 02, 2018, 10:11:28 AM »
I would be very interested to see what the SJU would make of this debate we have been having.

Quote
Why is it always "I thought this was a skeptical forum" when no one buys the line of horshit?

If my crime is reserving judgement then I am guilty as charged!

That is not your "crime", for you have not reserved judgement. 

I can't speak for everyone, but I haven't made up my mind.  I just think that given prior probabilities and no evidence to the contrary it is likely that the Russians are the culprit.  Am I 100% sure?  No.  Maybe 80% sure.  And until I get some evidence to the contrary I am not willing to change that probability.  Some anon dude-bro asking leading questions is not evidence.  Nor is posting the dictionary definition of skeptic.

Oh - and whether you know it or not, you work for the Russians.  If you are not officially a troll, then that's on you for not getting paid to post Russian propaganda CTs on the interwebs.

Between this, #metoo, Trump stuff, and several other topics that have come up recently on these boards, I've decided "You don't have to perpetually give shitty people the benefit of the doubt" is a standard that is reasonably compatible with skepticism.  If I was a real stickler I'd try to defend it as a direct outcome of Bayesian reasoning, but I'm satisfied with it merely being a sensible value judgement.

For anyone that thinks the current leadership of Russia doesn't qualify as shitty people .... can I join you in the cryogenic chamber you've been in for the last 15 years?   :)

Online Harry Black

  • International Man of Mystery
  • Global Moderator
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • *****
  • Posts: 15838
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #49 on: April 02, 2018, 10:19:39 AM »
I would be very interested to see what the SJU would make of this debate we have been having.

Quote
Why is it always "I thought this was a skeptical forum" when no one buys the line of horshit?

If my crime is reserving judgement then I am guilty as charged!

That is not your "crime", for you have not reserved judgement. 

I can't speak for everyone, but I haven't made up my mind.  I just think that given prior probabilities and no evidence to the contrary it is likely that the Russians are the culprit.  Am I 100% sure?  No.  Maybe 80% sure.  And until I get some evidence to the contrary I am not willing to change that probability.  Some anon dude-bro asking leading questions is not evidence.  Nor is posting the dictionary definition of skeptic.

Oh - and whether you know it or not, you work for the Russians.  If you are not officially a troll, then that's on you for not getting paid to post Russian propaganda CTs on the interwebs.

Between this, #metoo, Trump stuff, and several other topics that have come up recently on these boards, I've decided "You don't have to perpetually give shitty people the benefit of the doubt" is a standard that is reasonably compatible with skepticism.  If I was a real stickler I'd try to defend it as a direct outcome of Bayesian reasoning, but I'm satisfied with it merely being a sensible value judgement.

For anyone that thinks the current leadership of Russia doesn't qualify as shitty people .... can I join you in the cryogenic chamber you've been in for the last 15 years?   :)
Right.
The shitheads that have metastised both in our movement and in opposition to it have figured out exactly how to make the most of being engaged and make it so that its not about actually winning the debate you are in but being visible and staying relevant.
There are many assumptions about the nature of debate and the market place of ideas and the meta effect of certain discussions that I am no longer taking as true, despite them being intrical to how many people understand skepticism and how I mainly learned to understand it myself.
Im still figuring out what I think about it and what it means for my actual method of engagement but its very clear that we are being taken for a ride in many areas by parasites with racist/sexist agendas.

Offline PANTS!

  • One leg at a time.
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 11766
  • What seals? I auditioned for this job.
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #50 on: April 02, 2018, 10:41:19 AM »
I would be very interested to see what the SJU would make of this debate we have been having.

Quote
Why is it always "I thought this was a skeptical forum" when no one buys the line of horshit?

If my crime is reserving judgement then I am guilty as charged!

That is not your "crime", for you have not reserved judgement. 

I can't speak for everyone, but I haven't made up my mind.  I just think that given prior probabilities and no evidence to the contrary it is likely that the Russians are the culprit.  Am I 100% sure?  No.  Maybe 80% sure.  And until I get some evidence to the contrary I am not willing to change that probability.  Some anon dude-bro asking leading questions is not evidence.  Nor is posting the dictionary definition of skeptic.

Oh - and whether you know it or not, you work for the Russians.  If you are not officially a troll, then that's on you for not getting paid to post Russian propaganda CTs on the interwebs.

Between this, #metoo, Trump stuff, and several other topics that have come up recently on these boards, I've decided "You don't have to perpetually give shitty people the benefit of the doubt" is a standard that is reasonably compatible with skepticism.  If I was a real stickler I'd try to defend it as a direct outcome of Bayesian reasoning, but I'm satisfied with it merely being a sensible value judgement.

For anyone that thinks the current leadership of Russia doesn't qualify as shitty people .... can I join you in the cryogenic chamber you've been in for the last 15 years?   :)
Right.
The shitheads that have metastised both in our movement and in opposition to it have figured out exactly how to make the most of being engaged and make it so that its not about actually winning the debate you are in but being visible and staying relevant.
There are many assumptions about the nature of debate and the market place of ideas and the meta effect of certain discussions that I am no longer taking as true, despite them being intrical to how many people understand skepticism and how I mainly learned to understand it myself.
Im still figuring out what I think about it and what it means for my actual method of engagement but its very clear that we are being taken for a ride in many areas by parasites with racist/sexist agendas.

Yup.  I know you are not from the US, but I liken it to American Football.  You can protest that you are not running with the ball all you want, but if you are blocking people to give the ball runner a path to score, then you are working for that team.
Now where I come from
We don't let society tell us how it's supposed to be
-Uptown, Prince 👉

The world is on its elbows and knees
It's forgotten the message and worships the creeds

Offline Quetzalcoatl

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 4925
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #51 on: April 02, 2018, 12:34:25 PM »
Russia wants to meet Yulia Skripal, following news of her health improvement: Russian spy: UK considers request to visit Yulia Skripal

I wonder what the purpose is.

Presuming they are referring to that same request, Russia was denied to make the visit: Russia demands to know why it has been denied access to the Skripals

I wonder what was behind that decision. Did Yulia decline to see the Russians? Or did the British authorities on their own for some reason rule it to be a bad idea? Or something else entirely?

Well, Sergei Skripal has been given British citizenship, whereas his daughter, Yulia, is still a Russian citizen, and under the Vienna Convention, legally, the British Government can't prevent a consular visit from the Russian embassy. Especially if they don't want Russia to play the same trick of refusing a visit to a British citizen being held in Russia by Russian authorities (the football world cup is being held there later this year, there will be a lot of England fans travelling over, and Russian fans aren't known for being the most peaceful supporters).

The Skripals are not "held" in the UK as if they are suspected criminals. Also, I don't think Russia can force them to meet if they don't want to.

I don't know about Russia's purpose here. They might just as well be trolling the Brits.
"I’m a member of no party. I have no ideology. I’m a rationalist. I do what I can in the international struggle between science and reason and the barbarism, superstition and stupidity that’s all around us." - Christopher Hitchens

Offline Shibboleth

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 8621
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #52 on: April 02, 2018, 12:48:08 PM »
I think that anyone can also claim asylum. We can't make Russia give us access to Snowden.
common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

Offline bimble

  • Seasoned Contributor
  • ****
  • Posts: 704
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #53 on: April 02, 2018, 04:23:16 PM »
Indeed, but what I mean is that the British Government* can't (or shouldn't) withhold access, but there's nothing stopping Yulia from saying 'no thanks' to consular contact.

Of course, how that would then play out on Russian media is another question...


* - and whilst they're not being "held" as such, they are in a hospital with no other next of kin to give/deny permission (?? I'm assuming) whilst the country that's suspected of attempting to kill them is requesting access

Offline goatboy1290

  • Not Enough Spare Time
  • **
  • Posts: 130
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #54 on: April 02, 2018, 04:42:45 PM »
Quote
That is not your "crime", for you have not reserved judgement.

When I say 'lets wait and see' that's me reserving judgement, unequivocally. Why do you keep insisting that I have picked sides. You are making value judgement's about my intentions and ignoring my words. You doubtless believe I have an alterior motive. That is your right as a skeptic. Perhaps you are a CIA stooge though...haha

[quoteOh - and whether you know it or not, you work for the Russians.  If you are not officially a troll, then that's on you for not getting paid to post Russian propaganda CTs on the interwebs.][/quote]

This is infantile. So the logic is 'if your not with us then you're against us'. That's a logical falacy. Its also a very damaging one wrt to geopolitics and international relations. It doesn't help in any context.

Quote
For anyone that thinks the current leadership of Russia doesn't qualify as shitty people .... can I join you in the cryogenic chamber you've been in for the last 15 years?

Again, I am no fan of Putin or despotic regimes of any stripe, but In case you haven't noticed its the USA and UK (+allies) that have been doing most of the invading in recent years. Going further back our record is equally abysmal. Our ends justifies the means mentality (defeating communism/Islamism at all costs) has led to catastrophe on several continents and most recently in the middle East. Millions will be living with the repercussions of that one for a generation. our claim that we did it all in the name of democracy wears ever thinner as we continue to support despots and regimes that suit us (for profit) while obliterating countries that conveniently stand in the way of our wider ambitions. This is not propaganda its the legacy that we ourselves created and must live with. Perhaps our only solution is to double down and find a new enemy to focus our attentions on. To rekindle the useful emotion of aggression and fear. I for one don't buy it. Our leaders are playing by the rules of a very old game. If we want to end it we need to establish a new set of rules, a new paradigm. That will not be easy. Growing the skeptical movement is an essential part of the solution but its a long, long road we are on. My goal is peace, I do not see it being reached by playing the old power games of the type we saw in the cold war.

Online Harry Black

  • International Man of Mystery
  • Global Moderator
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • *****
  • Posts: 15838
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #55 on: April 02, 2018, 05:32:36 PM »
So help us grow the movement then.
Engage with us on topics other than the one you created right after joining us.

Offline PANTS!

  • One leg at a time.
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 11766
  • What seals? I auditioned for this job.
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #56 on: April 02, 2018, 05:35:40 PM »
None of what you said is evidence.  Get back to me when you have evidence.
Now where I come from
We don't let society tell us how it's supposed to be
-Uptown, Prince 👉

The world is on its elbows and knees
It's forgotten the message and worships the creeds

Offline Belgarath

  • Forum Sugar Daddy
  • Technical Administrator
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • *****
  • Posts: 11846
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #57 on: April 02, 2018, 07:14:22 PM »
So help us grow the movement then.
Engage with us on topics other than the one you created right after joining us.

I'd really be curious to hear her thoughts on other topics.....
#non-belief denialist

Offline seamas

  • Frequent Poster
  • ******
  • Posts: 2394
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #58 on: April 03, 2018, 11:18:50 AM »

I wasn't that long ago that several hundred of our own MP's and the majority of the voting public were convinced that Iraq had WMD. To suggest otherwise was to invoke conspiracy theory logic. It wasn't just likely they had WMD's it was 'certain'. Remember Bush/Rice/Cheney etc trumpeting this endlessly on the news. Creating an unassailable narrative and justifying war. I bring this up not because I am a 'Putin fan' or because I hate my own country, but because we must realise that our governments (indeed all governments) are capable of lying on an enormous scale when it suits their political needs. Is that what is going on here? I don't know. That is why I insist on a higher standard of proof than currently seems acceptable.

They certainly lied about the degree of their certainty, but there is no doubt that Iraq had a considerable WMD program, had used WMDs in the past and produced pretty sketchy accounting as to what had happened to it. Saddam Hussein was also cagey about any efforts by the UN to verify the destruction of the WMD.
The US and other other allies were not making anything up out of whole cloth, and bet on the worst case scenario. They were most certainly wrong, but the "enormous scale" of lying" is just as equal and exaggeration as the Iraq WMD threat.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9339
  • Cache rules everything around me.
Re: Novichok nerve agent attack - UK
« Reply #59 on: April 03, 2018, 12:25:27 PM »
Edit: Nevermind, I don't want to get into an Iraq War derail which would serve to muddy the waters.
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

 

personate-rain
personate-rain