Author Topic: Episode #673  (Read 10839 times)

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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #30 on: June 06, 2018, 09:27:04 AM »
I wish that our "escape to reality" didn't have quite so much silly speculation about people becoming cyborgs, in a tone that suggests the speaker regards such sci-fi/fantasy notions to be science. "Gradually downloading our personality to an implanted computer"? Might as well talk about fighting off Bigfoot with a magic wand.

As for having kids on Mars, I cannot imagine anything more cruel and heartless than to condemn your kids to such a life.
Depending. Let us assume for a second that we can make mars within an order of magnitude as safe as earth and children won't just die. It is entirely plausible that health effects of microgravity won't effect individuals born and raised in microgravity. In wich case we are talking the mane downside of only being able to live in microgravity. But any hab would be home.

The gravity on Mars is 38% of 1G, that's not exactly micro-gravity. We've never had people live in that kind of gravity before. The effects of micro-gravity are well known. Mars is a whole new situation and not even comparable to the Moon. The first wave of colonist will have it hardest. Harsh environments can produce harsh people. Limited resources will necessitate strict population control and resource management. The habitats will be small and scattered to start with. Some, if not all will be partly underground. You don't want all of your population in one habitat or even one location, because if there is a disaster you don't want to lose the whole colony at once. And there are all sorts of unforeseen problems that will have to be dealt with, without help from Earth. And it will be a long time before the first martians will be totally independent of Earth. If history tells us anything, colonists will start as innovators and improvisors until they reach a point of stability. But then they may become very conservative and resistant to change. Even fearful of anything new after a few generations. That's what happens when resources are extremely limited and education, science and industry is restricted to only what is immediately useful. But the next wave of colonists will bring new technology, new ways of doing things, and have a much easier time of it as a lot of the hard work will have already been done. Australia and America followed a similar pattern after the arrival of Europeans. The only thing we can be certain of is it's going to take a long time.

I want to be an astrofizzlescist one day.  Because I like things that fizzle in space. ::)

History tells us nothing in this case, because every colony ever established or even attempted in the history of the human race has been in a place with the same 21% oxygen atmosphere as the place they left, the same magnetosphere, the same basic biology; different crops, but the same basic principles of agriculture; different seasons and seasonal day/night changes, but the same sun shining down.

There has never been a colony or even an attempt at a colony in a place where there is effectively no atmosphere, where there is effectively no soil, where there is effectively no readily available water. There are nomads who cross the deserts, but no colonies in the middle of those deserts except at oases where water is available. There are research stations in Antarctica, but even with abundant snow for water and abundant sea life, there is no self-sustaining colony there. Those stations are completely dependent on supplies flown in from outside.

We have, or soon will have, the ability to establish research stations on Mars, for people willing to suffer the consequences of the long exposure to cosmic rays. But a self-sustaining colony there is a fantasy.
Daniel
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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #31 on: June 06, 2018, 10:35:52 AM »
I wish that our "escape to reality" didn't have quite so much silly speculation about people becoming cyborgs, in a tone that suggests the speaker regards such sci-fi/fantasy notions to be science. "Gradually downloading our personality to an implanted computer"? Might as well talk about fighting off Bigfoot with a magic wand.

As for having kids on Mars, I cannot imagine anything more cruel and heartless than to condemn your kids to such a life.
Depending. Let us assume for a second that we can make mars within an order of magnitude as safe as earth and children won't just die. It is entirely plausible that health effects of microgravity won't effect individuals born and raised in microgravity. In wich case we are talking the mane downside of only being able to live in microgravity. But any hab would be home.

The gravity on Mars is 38% of 1G, that's not exactly micro-gravity. We've never had people live in that kind of gravity before. The effects of micro-gravity are well known. Mars is a whole new situation and not even comparable to the Moon. The first wave of colonist will have it hardest. Harsh environments can produce harsh people. Limited resources will necessitate strict population control and resource management. The habitats will be small and scattered to start with. Some, if not all will be partly underground. You don't want all of your population in one habitat or even one location, because if there is a disaster you don't want to lose the whole colony at once. And there are all sorts of unforeseen problems that will have to be dealt with, without help from Earth. And it will be a long time before the first martians will be totally independent of Earth. If history tells us anything, colonists will start as innovators and improvisors until they reach a point of stability. But then they may become very conservative and resistant to change. Even fearful of anything new after a few generations. That's what happens when resources are extremely limited and education, science and industry is restricted to only what is immediately useful. But the next wave of colonists will bring new technology, new ways of doing things, and have a much easier time of it as a lot of the hard work will have already been done. Australia and America followed a similar pattern after the arrival of Europeans. The only thing we can be certain of is it's going to take a long time.

I want to be an astrofizzlescist one day.  Because I like things that fizzle in space. ::)

Yeah, some of that by be an exaggeration, but it's got a lot of merit. Here's the thing, when they say they want to colonize mars the colonists who go to settle the planet will be there for good.

They'll want to recruit young healthy adults willing to migrate to another planet and spend the rest of their lives their. Round trips are too expensive and difficult for an entire colony.

A ticket to colonize mars is a one way ticket.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_cycler



The most difficult and expensive part is lifting off from mars. Part of the problem is you pretty much have to bring everything you need from earth.

The second most difficult and expensive part is lifting off from earth. And having to send return rockets and fuel capacity into space makes it that much more expensive. 

However, if you don’t need a return capacity you can just continually launch supplies and resources needed to survive and thrive.



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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #32 on: June 06, 2018, 10:54:54 AM »
FWIW, I think the effort should be to colonize space, which includes earth orbit, asteroid mining and lunar bases. And, yes, Mars, but a mars colony makes much more sense if it is supported from space based resources

The first goal should be lunar or orbital foundries and manufacturing. The more we can build off earth, and the more resources we can extract from space, the better.




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Online Friendly Angel

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #33 on: June 06, 2018, 12:16:26 PM »
Harsh environments can produce harsh people.

Well, sex-bot technology can help a lot with that.
Amend and resubmit.

Offline lonely moa

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #34 on: June 06, 2018, 03:31:22 PM »
Irruption.  A big problem on islands.  Beech trees mast, mice irrupt, rats, stoats follow suit and the trophic cascades decimates our native bird population.

Total fuckover of our native fauna.

Mind you, we might consider the invasion of tourists here an "irruption".
"Pull the goalie", Malcolm Gladwell.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #35 on: June 06, 2018, 03:35:42 PM »
Harsh environments can produce harsh people.

Well, sex-bot technology can help a lot with that.

Colonize Mars with sex bots and then you'll get plenty of volunteers to go there.

Here's the thing, though: Nobody ever establishes a colony unless they expect to make money from it. A Mars colony will not be a money-making venture. It will be a continual cost to send supplies. And no company or government will be able or willing to keep supporting it forever. So eventually the money runs out and they pull the plug and the colonists starve. Mars One was going to finance it with a reality TV show. But once people on Earth get tired of watching, the money will dry up.

Even if you establish mining of asteroids to bring something of value to the Earth, nobody will want to divert that value to a parasitic colony on Mars. There are idealists like Elon Musk who think it's a good idea to have a colony there that will survive the inevitable collapse of civilization on Earth, but when they die off, the Mars colony will just seem like a waste of money. And if/when Earth civilization does collapse, there'll be no more resupply ships to Mars and the Mars colony will starve.

Send robots. Much more research bang for the buck. And as robots get better, the return will be even more. It's fine to visit a place where there's no air. (Going 2,000 feet down under the ocean was cool. And it took an hour to get down and another hour to get back up, not nine months, and I was gone for six hours, not two years, and I had proper gravity all the way.) But you gotta be nuts to want to move permanently to a place with no air.
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Offline DevoutCatalyst

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #36 on: June 06, 2018, 04:38:21 PM »
But once people on Earth get tired of watching, the money will dry up.
I watched the first moon landing. It was a big deal. Subsequent moon landings were not. I think people on Earth will get tired of watching the monotony of Mars very quickly.

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #37 on: June 06, 2018, 06:05:47 PM »
Here's the thing, though: Nobody ever establishes a colony unless they expect to make money from it.

That's not the case. Colonies are also established in order for a country to attain a strategic advantage, or maintain a strategic position with a rival.

Quote
A Mars colony will not be a money-making venture. It will be a continual cost to send supplies. And no company or government will be able or willing to keep supporting it forever. So eventually the money runs out and they pull the plug and the colonists starve. Mars One was going to finance it with a reality TV show. But once people on Earth get tired of watching, the money will dry up.

Right. Mars is not a money maker. Space is. That's why it makes more sense to colonize space, rather than set our sights on Mars.


Quote
Even if you establish mining of asteroids to bring something of value to the Earth, nobody will want to divert that value to a parasitic colony on Mars. There are idealists like Elon Musk who think it's a good idea to have a colony there that will survive the inevitable collapse of civilization on Earth, but when they die off, the Mars colony will just seem like a waste of money. And if/when Earth civilization does collapse, there'll be no more resupply ships to Mars and the Mars colony will starve.

Nobody will want to ... Elon Musk (who has the wherewithal to actually get it going) wants to.

If we colonize space, then as soon as it's possible for Colonies on mars to be self-sustainable it will be colonized.

Quote
But you gotta be nuts to want to move permanently to a place with no air.

No argument there. I don't think we'd have trouble finding volunteers.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline AtheistApotheosis

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #38 on: June 07, 2018, 05:41:33 AM »
Harsh environments can produce harsh people.

Well, sex-bot technology can help a lot with that.

I thought about that after I finished my post. Dirty minds think alike.

Offline AtheistApotheosis

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #39 on: June 07, 2018, 07:06:57 AM »
I wish that our "escape to reality" didn't have quite so much silly speculation about people becoming cyborgs, in a tone that suggests the speaker regards such sci-fi/fantasy notions to be science. "Gradually downloading our personality to an implanted computer"? Might as well talk about fighting off Bigfoot with a magic wand.

As for having kids on Mars, I cannot imagine anything more cruel and heartless than to condemn your kids to such a life.
Depending. Let us assume for a second that we can make mars within an order of magnitude as safe as earth and children won't just die. It is entirely plausible that health effects of microgravity won't effect individuals born and raised in microgravity. In wich case we are talking the mane downside of only being able to live in microgravity. But any hab would be home.

The gravity on Mars is 38% of 1G, that's not exactly micro-gravity. We've never had people live in that kind of gravity before. The effects of micro-gravity are well known. Mars is a whole new situation and not even comparable to the Moon. The first wave of colonist will have it hardest. Harsh environments can produce harsh people. Limited resources will necessitate strict population control and resource management. The habitats will be small and scattered to start with. Some, if not all will be partly underground. You don't want all of your population in one habitat or even one location, because if there is a disaster you don't want to lose the whole colony at once. And there are all sorts of unforeseen problems that will have to be dealt with, without help from Earth. And it will be a long time before the first martians will be totally independent of Earth. If history tells us anything, colonists will start as innovators and improvisors until they reach a point of stability. But then they may become very conservative and resistant to change. Even fearful of anything new after a few generations. That's what happens when resources are extremely limited and education, science and industry is restricted to only what is immediately useful. But the next wave of colonists will bring new technology, new ways of doing things, and have a much easier time of it as a lot of the hard work will have already been done. Australia and America followed a similar pattern after the arrival of Europeans. The only thing we can be certain of is it's going to take a long time.

I want to be an astrofizzlescist one day.  Because I like things that fizzle in space. ::)

History tells us nothing in this case, because every colony ever established or even attempted in the history of the human race has been in a place with the same 21% oxygen atmosphere as the place they left, the same magnetosphere, the same basic biology; different crops, but the same basic principles of agriculture; different seasons and seasonal day/night changes, but the same sun shining down.

There has never been a colony or even an attempt at a colony in a place where there is effectively no atmosphere, where there is effectively no soil, where there is effectively no readily available water. There are nomads who cross the deserts, but no colonies in the middle of those deserts except at oases where water is available. There are research stations in Antarctica, but even with abundant snow for water and abundant sea life, there is no self-sustaining colony there. Those stations are completely dependent on supplies flown in from outside.

We have, or soon will have, the ability to establish research stations on Mars, for people willing to suffer the consequences of the long exposure to cosmic rays. But a self-sustaining colony there is a fantasy.

With Antarctica "no self-sustaining colony there" That's true because there is no reason to, it's relatively easy to get to and from. But with Mars we have never had the technology to get there or establish a permanent colony on another world before. Most of this will happen over a hundred years or more, like I said... generations. And only if there is a good economic reason to be there in the first place. Unfortunately, I'm very bad at making these kinds of predictions. If you asked me in 2000 when we would have self driving cars, I would have said about 2060 or later. I would have predicted something like spaceX to be closer to around 2080 or 2100. And chat-bots like google's Duplex I wasn't expecting anything like that until  at least 2030 or later, and the same with robots like Atlas or Pepper.  If you listened to the Jennifer Ouellette interview last week, phase transitions and criticality. Technology progresses in the same way "a watched pot never boils", look away for a moment and when you look back suddenly there is a robot serving you coffee and the couple at the next table are photographing them selves with a selfie drone. And you wonder "When the hell did that happen?" We live in interesting times.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #40 on: June 07, 2018, 09:35:12 AM »
Right. Mars is not a money maker. Space is.

No, it is not. There are people who believe it could be, but that's just speculation and hopeful thinking.
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Episode #673
« Reply #41 on: June 07, 2018, 10:40:03 AM »
Lots of businesses are making money in space right now and that’s just the tip of the iceberg

Also, Antarctica is not colonized because the is an international agreement not to colonize it. It’s certain that the continent has lots of untapped natural resources.


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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #42 on: June 07, 2018, 01:14:15 PM »
Lots of businesses are making money in space right now

They are making money by selling goods and services to NASA or their own space agency. Or by getting people to invest in projects for which the technology does not even exist yet. Or by selling tickets to ride on space ships that have not yet been built. Nobody is producing any revenue from space. Except Russia, who for some millions of dollars will take you to the space station, if they're still offering that.
Daniel
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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #43 on: June 07, 2018, 01:59:09 PM »
Lots of businesses are making money in space right now

They are making money by selling goods and services to NASA or their own space agency. Or by getting people to invest in projects for which the technology does not even exist yet. Or by selling tickets to ride on space ships that have not yet been built. Nobody is producing any revenue from space. Except Russia, who for some millions of dollars will take you to the space station, if they're still offering that.

Tell that to direcTV. And just about any major international telecom company.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #673
« Reply #44 on: June 07, 2018, 03:58:31 PM »
Lots of businesses are making money in space right now

They are making money by selling goods and services to NASA or their own space agency. Or by getting people to invest in projects for which the technology does not even exist yet. Or by selling tickets to ride on space ships that have not yet been built. Nobody is producing any revenue from space. Except Russia, who for some millions of dollars will take you to the space station, if they're still offering that.

Tell that to direcTV. And just about any major international telecom company.

You are right. Communications satellites in low-Earth or geostationary orbits are profitable. But they're not making anything from space. They're making money by being in space. That's a far cry from mining colonies trying to make money by sending metals back to Earth.
Daniel
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-- Otto von Bismarck