Poll

Elon Musk

Love 'em
4 (16.7%)
Hate 'em
3 (12.5%)
Meh
17 (70.8%)

Total Members Voted: 24

Voting closed: July 31, 2018, 08:08:13 PM

Author Topic: Elon Musk, love him or hate him  (Read 8757 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Ah.hell

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 13106
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2018, 05:31:24 PM »
I meant you, sorry for the typoe.  Now that you clarified you are planning wrong. His initial estimates for the costs of the dream pipe were about half what they should have just for materials and construction.

We don't really know that.
We do, I've seen his estimate released shortly after he announced it, his estimates were roughly have what I've typically seen for civil infrastructure projects.
Quote
Quote
He thinks he can dig tunnels 5 to 10 times faster than folks with decades of experience in the field. 
He has hired people with decades of experience in the field.


Quote
In both case, I think he dramatically underestimates the regulatory hurdles on both projects. 

There is surprisingly very little regulation over tunneling in California, and so far hasn't been much of a barrier to him.

Quote
CA is having trouble on that score with the train being built by the state itself.


The High Speed rail that's being built is above ground almost entirely, and while it is having trouble, regulatory hurdles are not serious.

It's mostly cost overruns, NIMBYism and land acquisition.
California's regulatory environment makes NIMBY's very effective at stopping projects. Granted, that's debatable. 

I'm not familiar enough with the specifics of tunneling to argue that point. 

Have his experts explained why they've sandbagging for decades?

Offline Harry Black

  • International Man of Mystery
  • Global Moderator
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • *****
  • Posts: 15483
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2018, 05:48:13 PM »
I like to think of him as a cross between Hank Scorpio and the monorail guy.

Offline 2397

  • Frequent Poster
  • ******
  • Posts: 2469
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2018, 06:12:01 PM »
He's one of the people who had an overly positive cameo/role playing themselves in The Simpsons, where I wonder why it seems like the writers went out of their way to praise them.

Offline CarbShark

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 10643
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2018, 06:32:43 PM »
I meant you, sorry for the typoe.  Now that you clarified you are planning wrong. His initial estimates for the costs of the dream pipe were about half what they should have just for materials and construction.

We don't really know that.
We do, I've seen his estimate released shortly after he announced it, his estimates were roughly have what I've typically seen for civil infrastructure projects.
Quote
Quote
He thinks he can dig tunnels 5 to 10 times faster than folks with decades of experience in the field. 
He has hired people with decades of experience in the field.


Quote
In both case, I think he dramatically underestimates the regulatory hurdles on both projects. 

There is surprisingly very little regulation over tunneling in California, and so far hasn't been much of a barrier to him.

Quote
CA is having trouble on that score with the train being built by the state itself.


The High Speed rail that's being built is above ground almost entirely, and while it is having trouble, regulatory hurdles are not serious.

It's mostly cost overruns, NIMBYism and land acquisition.
California's regulatory environment makes NIMBY's very effective at stopping projects. Granted, that's debatable. 

I'm not familiar enough with the specifics of tunneling to argue that point. 

Have his experts explained why they've sandbagging for decades?

What we don't know is what his estimates "should have been." You're very likely right, but if he (well, his engineers) have developed less expensive tunneling methods, then maybe his estimates are correct.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline brilligtove

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7034
  • Ignorance can be cured. Stupidity, you deal with.
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2018, 12:48:31 AM »
On what do you base your confidence in what he will achieve?

I am not confident that he will achieve his vision.

I am confident, but not certain, that I'm right about what his vision is.

So far he has demostrated a pretty solid ability to scale technologies up. Doing so at a profit is stills promise, not a reality.

But people thought he was a nucking fut monkey for starting Tesla at all. Same for SpaceX. Same for Boring.

All three companies could fail, utterly. The first two have likely changed the course of human history regardless of whether they become profitable. Boring could well be the same. High-speed low-cost tunneling and mining has a lot of implications for how humans live on Earth, let alone elsewhere.
evidence trumps experience | performance over perfection | responsibility – authority = scapegoat | emotions motivate; data doesn't

Offline Bessantj

  • Brand New
  • Posts: 6
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2018, 03:07:29 PM »
I'm meh on him but this is my favourite post about Musk:

Quote
Forget twitter and all that fluff. I readily admit I've drank the cool-aid. (Tesla share holder :-) ) The guy is a one of a kind with a unique combination of rare abilities that make him different to anyone of note before. He's not perfect, in fact as someone who works with children with ASD, I see he has certain mild traits, which might explain some of the recent twitter idiocy.
Regardless, people who work with him say he has perfect recall, of everything he has ever learnt which along with his exceptionally high IQ gives him the ability to master multiple areas quickly, where a "normal" genius might only master one in a life time.

I remember reading an interview (forget the name) of the worlds leading rocket scientist. Musk came to him as he wanted him to teach hime about rocketry. The scientist gave him a big list of rocket science books to read first, thinking that would be that. Musk came back to him a 2 weeks later. He had not only read them all, but also had complete understanding of them, and perfect recall of every aspect of every book. This scientist then imparted his extra knowledge onto Musk, he finished the interview by saying that he was no longer the worlds leading rocket scientist, Musk now is.

Musk is going to go down as the most influential guy in history excluding religion. For 3 reasons, 2 obvious one less so.

1. Making life multi-planetary. If that works out as hoped, then that will be as big an event as multi-cellular life, life moving onto land and life becoming intelligent.

2. Electric cars, solar and storage are at the very beginnings of their exponential growth. The world will transition far quicker than most realize, not so much due to political pressure, but become of the economics and convenience. I'm far more bullish regarding climate change than I used to be.

3. Huge geo-political change. As battery+solar+BEV becomes ubiquitous, regimes that rely upon natural resources (Russia, Middle East etc but not China) will have to change and far quicker than they realise, probably too quick to avoid a complete shattering of their status quo to something else.

Even now it makes me weep with laughter.

Offline John Albert

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 5751
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2018, 06:43:24 PM »
I like to think of him as a cross between Hank Scorpio and the monorail guy.

At least Hank Scorpio treats his employees well.

Offline CarbShark

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 10643
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2018, 07:31:55 PM »
However things end up, he's already done some pretty impressive things.

PayPal today seems rather mundane but in its day it was pretty revolutionary.

He's already building rockets and landing them vertically.

He's selling electric cars.

He's already selling solar roofs

He's already  selling home batteries

He's already digging tunnels in LA (because he doesn't like being stuck in traffic)

He's already building high speed transit systems

I'd put up an awful lot of dickishness for just one of those things.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline Ah.hell

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 13106
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2018, 09:09:40 AM »
He's already building high speed transit systems
Where?

He has yet to demonstrate a sustainable business model for any of the efforts.  I applaud most of the efforts but until he actually shows that they won't just hemorrhage money, I'm cautiously optimistic.  Except for the boring company and dream pipe, I'm less than cautiously pessimistic about those efforts.

Offline heyalison

  • Not Enough Spare Time
  • **
  • Posts: 149
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2018, 09:47:56 AM »
PayPal today seems rather mundane but in its day it was pretty revolutionary.

I call shenanigans. Money transfer for internet commerce was on everyone's minds, and there were many platforms trying to do the same thing as PayPal. They were lucky that they got bought by eBay, and were there when that site was at its apex. To single out PayPal as some great vision of Elon's is like saying people who opened gas stations when the car was invented were visionaries. It was obvious. And he was a rich kid who got lucky that his gas station ended up being on a busy road.

It's like calling a lottery winner an astute business man for having so presciently bought the right ticket.

Offline CarbShark

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 10643
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #25 on: July 27, 2018, 10:20:00 AM »
He's already building high speed transit systems
Where?

He has yet to demonstrate a sustainable business model for any of the efforts.  I applaud most of the efforts but until he actually shows that they won't just hemorrhage money, I'm cautiously optimistic.  Except for the boring company and dream pipe, I'm less than cautiously pessimistic about those efforts.

The hyperloop is further along than the tunneling.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline Ah.hell

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 13106
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #26 on: July 27, 2018, 10:34:38 AM »
He's already building high speed transit systems
Where?

He has yet to demonstrate a sustainable business model for any of the efforts.  I applaud most of the efforts but until he actually shows that they won't just hemorrhage money, I'm cautiously optimistic.  Except for the boring company and dream pipe, I'm less than cautiously pessimistic about those efforts.

The hyperloop is further along than the tunneling.
Where is it being built?  I expect it another 5 to 10 years away from getting out of testing.  Actually, I bet there will never be a functioning hyperloop that transports actually paying customers.*  Of course, I could be wrong but I'd be surprised.

*Outside of a system like the monorail in Seattle, which is really just rather boring tourist attraction.

Offline CarbShark

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 10643
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #27 on: July 27, 2018, 06:20:34 PM »
He's already building high speed transit systems
Where?

He has yet to demonstrate a sustainable business model for any of the efforts.  I applaud most of the efforts but until he actually shows that they won't just hemorrhage money, I'm cautiously optimistic.  Except for the boring company and dream pipe, I'm less than cautiously pessimistic about those efforts.

The hyperloop is further along than the tunneling.
Where is it being built?  I expect it another 5 to 10 years away from getting out of testing.  Actually, I bet there will never be a functioning hyperloop that transports actually paying customers.*  Of course, I could be wrong but I'd be surprised.

*Outside of a system like the monorail in Seattle, which is really just rather boring tourist attraction.
Denver, Chicago and Cleveland, although I was mistake, Musk isn't building these himself. SpaceX did the functioning prototype and other companies are building them.

Hyperloop - Wikipedia

Quote
In November, 2017, Arrivo announced a plan for a maglev automobile transport system from Aurora, Colorado to Denver International Airport, the first leg of a system from downtown Denver.[36] Its contract describes completion of the first leg in 2021. In February 2018, Hyperloop Transportation Technologies announced a similar plan for a loop connecting Chicago and Cleveland and a loop connecting Washington and New York City.[37]


and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline SkeptiQueer

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7736
  • DEEZ NUTZ
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #28 on: July 28, 2018, 01:19:42 AM »
"announced a plan" doesn't mean it's being built. The Delmar loop trolley project was "announced" like 5 years ago, and has materialized nothing.

As heyalison mentioned, PayPal wasn't revolutionary, it was one of many, and cuitng it as genius is just survivorship bias.
HIISSSSSSSS

Offline God Bomb

  • Seasoned Contributor
  • ****
  • Posts: 500
Re: Elon Musk, love him or hate him
« Reply #29 on: July 28, 2018, 03:46:15 PM »
Lately he's been making some really dumb and offensive comments on twitter.

For example accusing one of the divers who was involved in rescuing the schoolkids in the cave of being a "pedo", just because he is an expat living in Thailand, the obvious implication being either that Thailand's only appeal is sex tourism, or that only a pedophile would attempt to rescue Thai children.
Fell deeds awake. Now for wrath, now for ruin, and the red dawn.

 

personate-rain
personate-rain