Author Topic: Accuracy of 20+ yo climate change predictions  (Read 171 times)

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Offline DanDanDan

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Accuracy of 20+ yo climate change predictions
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:45:38 PM »
Has there been a professional meta-analysis or evaluation of climate change predictions that were made 20+ years ago about the current state of things? About their accuracy and the predictive power of the research and the theories that were being formulated in the '90s? For example, can somebody point me to a widely cited study that predicted X amount of ice would have melted by now? The reporting on the subject that I've found lacks good citation.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 05:10:41 PM by DanDanDan »

Offline swan

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Re: Accuracy of 20+ yo climate change predictions
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2019, 08:50:21 PM »
If you want to make a deep dive and get lots of citations, check out videos by journalist Peter Hadfield aka "potholer54. His videos go into great detail debunking climate change denial and he gives numerous sources. He also reveals many tricks and traps that journalists use when trying to over-hype or just simply misrepresent the science.

Hopefully it's no spoiler that many of the "scientists' claims that never came true!" were simply headlines written by people who didn't read the article written by someone who was actually just doing copypasta off another article they saw with a single out-of-context quote from a scientist; or maybe a politician or actor said something and it got over-reported. Same old story...

Online CarbShark

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Accuracy of 20+ yo climate change predictions
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2019, 09:57:53 PM »
Wrong thread
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 11:51:46 AM by CarbShark »
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Accuracy of 20+ yo climate change predictions
« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2019, 12:35:05 AM »
Found this article

Article: Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?
From: Carbon Brief
Date: 2017 OCT 05

Quote
Scientists have been making projections of future global warming using climate models of increasing complexity for the past four decades.

These models, driven by atmospheric physics and biogeochemistry, play an important role in our understanding of the Earth’s climate and how it will likely change in the future.

Carbon Brief has collected prominent climate model projections since 1973 to see how well they project both past and future global temperatures, as shown in the animation below. (Click the play button to start.)

While some models projected less warming than we’ve experienced and some projected more, all showed surface temperature increases between 1970 and 2016 that were not too far off from what actually occurred, particularly when differences in assumed future emissions are taken into account.

...











If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline Nacreous

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Re: Accuracy of 20+ yo climate change predictions
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2019, 01:13:50 PM »
If you want to make a deep dive and get lots of citations, check out videos by journalist Peter Hadfield aka "potholer54. His videos go into great detail debunking climate change denial...

Seconded. 

Potholer54 is a treasure, and his elegant, well-supported de-bunkings extend to pop-sci climate commentators like Al Gore, as well.  He’s also been methodically destroying creationists' nonsense for years.  Any skeptics who do not know him yet are in for a treat.
"The future has been here for awhile; it's just not available to everyone."
-some guy at MIT

Online CarbShark

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Re: Accuracy of 20+ yo climate change predictions
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2019, 02:05:47 PM »
If you want to make a deep dive and get lots of citations, check out videos by journalist Peter Hadfield aka "potholer54. His videos go into great detail debunking climate change denial...

Seconded. 

Potholer54 is a treasure, and his elegant, well-supported de-bunkings extend to pop-sci climate commentators like Al Gore, as well.  He’s also been methodically destroying creationists' nonsense for years.  Any skeptics who do not know him yet are in for a treat.

I visit Skeptical Science every day for the latest. (Warning, it can be alarming and depressing at times).


Global Warming and Climate Change skepticism examined

Quote
Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn't what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that purports to refute global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

 

personate-rain