Author Topic: Episode #691  (Read 1973 times)

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Offline GodSlayer

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2018, 07:29:26 PM »
If you intentionally havent followed the story then perhaps you should refrain from JAQing off around such a sensitive topic that affects people who post here regularly and maybe you should go and read the actual claims and story if you are uncertain. There is absolutely no logic in avoiding a story and then asking people online to fill in the gaps for you.


if you don't dispute anything I said,  there's nothing to read.
Its not on us to do your homework for you.


if you have no objection, then I've done as much homework as you.
thanks for corroborating what I thought.
Quote from: Thomas Carlyle
In a controversy, the instant we feel anger we have already ceased striving for the truth, and have begun striving for ourselves.

Offline RGU

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2018, 02:21:25 PM »
If you intentionally havent followed the story then perhaps you should refrain from JAQing off around such a sensitive topic that affects people who post here regularly and maybe you should go and read the actual claims and story if you are uncertain. There is absolutely no logic in avoiding a story and then asking people online to fill in the gaps for you.


if you don't dispute anything I said,  there's nothing to read.
Its not on us to do your homework for you.


if you have no objection, then I've done as much homework as you.
thanks for corroborating what I thought.

This makes no sense. Someone not looking something up for you does not equate to corroboration.

If you ask a stranger if you can have their car and they tell you to F off, does that mean yes since they didn't technically say no?

Offline RGU

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2018, 02:35:00 PM »
Just finished the book, both the Kindle and audiobook versions.  Both are equally good.

Regarding the Kavanaugh attempted rape allegations.  There is a third possibility - Christine Ford could be accurately remembering the particulars of the attempted rape, but misremembered the perpetrator.  There was a case where a woman was raped, and misidentified the perpetrator based on a resemblance of the suspect to someone she saw on television at around the same time, who was convicted largely on the 100% conviction of the victim that he was the perpetrator.  Christine Ford could have suffered the attempted rape and then seen Kavanaugh, and combined the two memories.

The lack of any documentation or evidence makes it hard to take too seriously. If the evidence isn't good enough for a conviction, then it isn't good enough for the character assassination.

Most of the supposed feminist rage you hear on this is sarcastic white noise. Convict, or social-vigilante equivalent, based on one decades-old witness report and zero physical evidence or even corroborating witness? No one with any intelligence wants that, which means the theater of political rage over this is like two white noise machines fighting each other.

The circumstantial evidence is enough to cause concern: being a federal judge is already a prestigeous job. So why now (again, taking it at face value and ignoring the fact that it is a political puppet show).

There was no trial so evidence for a conviction is not necessary. Oh, and the FBI was not allowed to talk to everyone to look for corroboration.
Trial - you need to be guilty with no doubt
Job Interview - any doubt is good enough to look at the next candidate.

If you disagree, would you hire someone who had been accused by someone of improperly touching their child. Or would you just shrug it off with a "they haven been arrested yet so it must not be true" and then leave your child with them. I would hope you would not as the doubt is enough to move on.

This of course is besides the fact that the guy lied about other stuff, is very partisan, and does not have the temperament to be a SCJ. But that isn't what is being discussed, it was the fallibility of memory. So people want to question her memory but not his?

Offline DaKine Oregon

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2018, 01:47:40 PM »
What percentage of rape reports are false? According to this report from the US Bureau of Justice Statistics (a branch of the FBI) 63% of all sexual assaults are never reported at all. Of those reported, somewhere in the area of 2% to 10% are not substantiated (some may be true, but without enough evidence to support them). Mathematically, this means that if 2 reports are made about a person being a rapist, the chances of it being false are 4/100ths of 1% to 1% (2% X 2% = .04% OR 10% X 10% = 1%). By the time 3 claims are made, the odds of all 3 being false drop to between 8/1,000ths of 1% and 1/10th of 1%. On the other hand, virtually 100% of sex abusers deny ever committing the crimes. Here's the link:   https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/files/Publications_NSVRC_Overview_False-Reporting.pdf

Offline GodSlayer

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2018, 07:53:37 PM »
If you ask a stranger if you can have their car and they tell you to F off, does that mean yes since they didn't technically say no?

terrible analogy.
Quote from: Thomas Carlyle
In a controversy, the instant we feel anger we have already ceased striving for the truth, and have begun striving for ourselves.

Offline GodSlayer

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2018, 07:54:59 PM »
Trial - you need to be guilty with no doubt
Job Interview - any doubt is good enough to look at the next candidate.

did they interview the other 24 candidates?
seems weird to have a job interview go so poorly, but not interview anyone else for the position.
Quote from: Thomas Carlyle
In a controversy, the instant we feel anger we have already ceased striving for the truth, and have begun striving for ourselves.

Offline TheLuckyWanderer

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2018, 07:15:43 PM »
Does anyone know where I can get or have the citations that Steve mentioned in regards to traumatic memory?   I would love to read through them, and I figure that Steve has a much better ability than me to see good sources.

Offline Billzbub

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2018, 12:35:23 PM »
Does anyone know where I can get or have the citations that Steve mentioned in regards to traumatic memory?   I would love to read through them, and I figure that Steve has a much better ability than me to see good sources.

That brings up an interesting larger idea.  We should suggest to the rogues that whenever they do research for an episode, they post the best of their primary sources in the show notes.  I will e-mail them the idea.
Quote from: Steven Novella
gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

Offline TheLuckyWanderer

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 09:50:24 PM »
Does anyone know where I can get or have the citations that Steve mentioned in regards to traumatic memory?   I would love to read through them, and I figure that Steve has a much better ability than me to see good sources.

That brings up an interesting larger idea.  We should suggest to the rogues that whenever they do research for an episode, they post the best of their primary sources in the show notes.  I will e-mail them the idea.

I thought they did that already... I guess I misunderstood and it is only when they say it will be in the show notes.  Oh well.  Was hopeful.

Offline Billzbub

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2018, 02:16:56 PM »
Does anyone know where I can get or have the citations that Steve mentioned in regards to traumatic memory?   I would love to read through them, and I figure that Steve has a much better ability than me to see good sources.

That brings up an interesting larger idea.  We should suggest to the rogues that whenever they do research for an episode, they post the best of their primary sources in the show notes.  I will e-mail them the idea.

I'm an idiot.  I thought the show notes were these posts here that we are replying to, which don't have the links in them.  There are actual show notes on theskepticsguide.org that do have such links.  I e-mailed info@theskepticsguide.org to ask them to put a link to the actual show notes in their episode posts here.
Quote from: Steven Novella
gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2018, 02:38:34 PM »
I e-mailed info@theskepticsguide.org to ask them to put a link to the actual show notes in their episode posts here.

That's a great idea!
Daniel
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"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."
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Offline TheLuckyWanderer

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2018, 06:02:10 PM »
Does anyone know where I can get or have the citations that Steve mentioned in regards to traumatic memory?   I would love to read through them, and I figure that Steve has a much better ability than me to see good sources.

That brings up an interesting larger idea.  We should suggest to the rogues that whenever they do research for an episode, they post the best of their primary sources in the show notes.  I will e-mail them the idea.

I'm an idiot.  I thought the show notes were these posts here that we are replying to, which don't have the links in them.  There are actual show notes on theskepticsguide.org that do have such links.  I e-mailed info@theskepticsguide.org to ask them to put a link to the actual show notes in their episode posts here.

I did see the show notes on their actual page, but it didn't have the links to the studies that Steve was talking about during the segment on traumatic memory.  I have tried finding them myself, but whilst I have some understanding as to how to read a paper, I defer to the expertise of others.

Offline RGU

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2018, 04:42:05 PM »
If you ask a stranger if you can have their car and they tell you to F off, does that mean yes since they didn't technically say no?

terrible analogy.
I know, I was reaching

Offline RGU

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Re: Episode #691
« Reply #28 on: October 19, 2018, 04:46:27 PM »
Trial - you need to be guilty with no doubt
Job Interview - any doubt is good enough to look at the next candidate.

did they interview the other 24 candidates?
seems weird to have a job interview go so poorly, but not interview anyone else for the position.

Good point
I wonder what it would be like if...

President nominates 3-5 candidates
They go before the congressional board and are interviewed.
The board then goes over their notes etc and picks the best one?

 

personate-rain