Author Topic: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?  (Read 4773 times)

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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #60 on: February 21, 2019, 07:36:52 PM »
There are [...] some things that computers will never be able to do.

Said the (meat-based) computer.

The comparison of people, or of the human brain, to computers is entirely misguided. Brains work nothing like computers, and vice versa. There are a few tasks that both brains and computers can accomplish, but what our brains do is entirely, totally, completely different than what computers do. The processes are completely different, the strengths and weaknesses are completely different, and any notion of any similarity is purely in the realm of sci-fi/fantasy.

Of course your current desktop works differently than a brain, but once we understand brains better, we will be able to make computers that work the same way as a brain.  Is there something about a brain that prevents us from modeling it in software and hardware other than that we just don't understand it enough right now?

You are predicting that some day we will be able to make computers that work the same way. I dispute this. I do believe that we will be able to build computers capable of doing a wider array of tasks now performed by people. But there is absolutely nothing in common between computers and brains. The dream of a computer that works like a brain is a fantasy probably rooted in the fact that computers can do arithmatic, and do it much faster than a person, so the early ones were often called "mechanical brains."

My prediction is that we will be making significant modifications to human DNA and creating "designer" people a thousand years before we even understand the human brain well enough to attempt to design a computer capable of accurately emulating it.
Daniel
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Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #61 on: February 21, 2019, 09:33:01 PM »
Do you think there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software?

Yes, I do

I think that's an extraordinary claim. Could you elaborate?

You do realise that you deleted the relevant part of my quote, right?
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Offline werecow

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2019, 03:23:52 PM »
any notion of any similarity is purely in the realm of sci-fi/fantasy.

This is entirely overstated. Artificial neural networks are an abstraction of biological neurons, sure, but in that abstract sense they were inspired by and perform roughly the same kinds of computations that our brains do, albeit in a completely different medium. That's why they're so successful in solving tasks that are typically thought of as "human", like computer vision, or learning language structures. And there are neuromorphic computers that are strongly inspired by biological brains. None of that is sci-fi or fantasy.
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Offline werecow

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #63 on: February 23, 2019, 03:25:44 PM »
Do you think there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software?

Yes, I do

I think that's an extraordinary claim. Could you elaborate?

You do realise that you deleted the relevant part of my quote, right?

I didn't see anything in there to answer my question, so I don't see how it's relevant?

EDIT: To elaborate: I think that "there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software" sounds like an extraordinary claim, regardless of whether you think they are needed for consciousness in general. I'd like to know what you think they are and why they can't be replicated.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 03:28:31 PM by werecow »
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Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #64 on: February 24, 2019, 09:17:48 PM »
Do you think there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software?

Yes, I do

I think that's an extraordinary claim. Could you elaborate?

You do realise that you deleted the relevant part of my quote, right?

I didn't see anything in there to answer my question, so I don't see how it's relevant?

EDIT: To elaborate: I think that "there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software" sounds like an extraordinary claim, regardless of whether you think they are needed for consciousness in general. I'd like to know what you think they are and why they can't be replicated.

Not that extraordinary. I'm referring to the biological aspects of consciousness - neurotransmitters, axons and dendrites, etc - structures that undoubtedly form part of our own consciousness, but which I don't think are necessary for all consciousnesses.
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Offline werecow

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #65 on: February 25, 2019, 10:07:21 PM »
Do you think there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software?

Yes, I do

I think that's an extraordinary claim. Could you elaborate?

You do realise that you deleted the relevant part of my quote, right?

I didn't see anything in there to answer my question, so I don't see how it's relevant?

EDIT: To elaborate: I think that "there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software" sounds like an extraordinary claim, regardless of whether you think they are needed for consciousness in general. I'd like to know what you think they are and why they can't be replicated.

Not that extraordinary. I'm referring to the biological aspects of consciousness - neurotransmitters, axons and dendrites, etc - structures that undoubtedly form part of our own consciousness, but which I don't think are necessary for all consciousnesses.

Hm, maybe not literally, but you could simulate those things given enough computational power. At that point, does what difference is left really have any relationship to consciousness at all?
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Offline arthwollipot

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #66 on: February 25, 2019, 11:32:30 PM »
Do you think there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software?

Yes, I do

I think that's an extraordinary claim. Could you elaborate?

You do realise that you deleted the relevant part of my quote, right?

I didn't see anything in there to answer my question, so I don't see how it's relevant?

EDIT: To elaborate: I think that "there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software" sounds like an extraordinary claim, regardless of whether you think they are needed for consciousness in general. I'd like to know what you think they are and why they can't be replicated.

Not that extraordinary. I'm referring to the biological aspects of consciousness - neurotransmitters, axons and dendrites, etc - structures that undoubtedly form part of our own consciousness, but which I don't think are necessary for all consciousnesses.

Hm, maybe not literally, but you could simulate those things given enough computational power. At that point, does what difference is left really have any relationship to consciousness at all?

You could simulate them, yes. But you couldn't replicate them with nonbiological systems. And I don't think you need to.
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Offline werecow

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #67 on: February 26, 2019, 07:11:10 AM »
Do you think there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software?

Yes, I do

I think that's an extraordinary claim. Could you elaborate?

You do realise that you deleted the relevant part of my quote, right?

I didn't see anything in there to answer my question, so I don't see how it's relevant?

EDIT: To elaborate: I think that "there's aspects of human consciousness which can't be replicated by software" sounds like an extraordinary claim, regardless of whether you think they are needed for consciousness in general. I'd like to know what you think they are and why they can't be replicated.

Not that extraordinary. I'm referring to the biological aspects of consciousness - neurotransmitters, axons and dendrites, etc - structures that undoubtedly form part of our own consciousness, but which I don't think are necessary for all consciousnesses.

Hm, maybe not literally, but you could simulate those things given enough computational power. At that point, does what difference is left really have any relationship to consciousness at all?

You could simulate them, yes. But you couldn't replicate them with nonbiological systems. And I don't think you need to.

I don't think we disagree, but my point is I think we can probably replicate any aspect of the brain that is relevant for consciousness or the mind. But I guess that's mostly arguing over semantics.
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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #68 on: February 26, 2019, 10:05:09 AM »
I would say that even with all we know about brain function, we still do not know enough about it or about consciousness to be able to speculate on whether or not we could replicate it.

I personally do not believe that an electronic computer will ever be able to replicate or even simulate the actual workings of the brain. I do not doubt that someone could write a program that could convince a person that it was a person. But that's not the same thing at all. IOW, I do not believe that the Turing test is proof of consciousness, any more than winning a game of Go.

Daniel
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Offline Billzbub

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #69 on: February 26, 2019, 11:22:11 AM »
I would say that even with all we know about brain function, we still do not know enough about it or about consciousness to be able to speculate on whether or not we could replicate it.

I personally do not believe that an electronic computer will ever be able to replicate or even simulate the actual workings of the brain. I do not doubt that someone could write a program that could convince a person that it was a person. But that's not the same thing at all. IOW, I do not believe that the Turing test is proof of consciousness, any more than winning a game of Go.

Do you think there is something going on in the brain that is not a physical process?  Something spiritual or supernatural?  If that is what you believe, then I see why you hold this opinion.  But, if you believe that the brain is a 100% physical process, then I just don't understand why you don't think we can simulate that in a computer once we understand it at an atomic level.  Perhaps you agree that we could, but that we will never understand the brain with sufficient fidelity?
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Offline moj

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #70 on: February 26, 2019, 11:36:13 AM »
I don't want to say never, but think it's much further away then many here are making it out to be to actually create a new consciousness. I think in the mean time AI will get better and take a lot of jobs and create a smaller amount of new jobs but is not going to be aware of itself or anything like that for sometime to come. I think it's possible to figure out and do, I just don't think we are there yet.

Offline CarbShark

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2019, 11:55:01 AM »
I would say that even with all we know about brain function, we still do not know enough about it or about consciousness to be able to speculate on whether or not we could replicate it.

I personally do not believe that an electronic computer will ever be able to replicate or even simulate the actual workings of the brain. I do not doubt that someone could write a program that could convince a person that it was a person. But that's not the same thing at all. IOW, I do not believe that the Turing test is proof of consciousness, any more than winning a game of Go.

Do you think there is something going on in the brain that is not a physical process?  Something spiritual or supernatural?  If that is what you believe, then I see why you hold this opinion.  But, if you believe that the brain is a 100% physical process, then I just don't understand why you don't think we can simulate that in a computer once we understand it at an atomic level.  Perhaps you agree that we could, but that we will never understand the brain with sufficient fidelity?

There is in the brain an extremely complex interaction of electrical signals and chemical reactions ranging from extremely local to "global." There's interaction and physical responses to hormones and release of hormones which impact other parts of the brain. Some of these interactions occur at the molecular level. Some across small areas, some throughout the brain.  There's also an interplay of the unconscious/conscious brain, and instinctual aspects and theories about "lizard brain" and "mammalian" brain behaviors. And there are parts of the brain dedicated to fight or flight, and responding to stress, pain and pleasure. All of that combine to form HI (human intelligence) and consciousness, and there is no telling which, if any of those are superfluous or required. And there are huge gaps in our understanding of the physiology of thought and intelligence.

I actually don't believe we could ever replicate even a fraction of HI using computers and electricity alone, nor would we need to in order to create devices that act with intelligence. But even that is probably not really necessary. 

For something like driving, the actual AI needed to be able to drive a car in every situation is fairly simple and has been done. What's difficult is getting high quality information from the environment and accurately interpreting the data so the AI knows what's happening and can respond (all in an instant). Being able to determine the difference between a pedestrian that could dart out into traffic and a tree is not an intelligence issue. It's a data and data interpretation issue.

That's the same challenge that or roadblock to AI replacing a huge number of jobs.

Replacing novelists, artists, poets, scientists would be far more difficult than replacing drivers, plumbers, electricians, construction workers or laborers.
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Offline Billzbub

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #72 on: February 26, 2019, 12:40:11 PM »
I don't want to say never, but think it's much further away then many here are making it out to be to actually create a new consciousness. I think in the mean time AI will get better and take a lot of jobs and create a smaller amount of new jobs but is not going to be aware of itself or anything like that for sometime to come. I think it's possible to figure out and do, I just don't think we are there yet.

I think that what I was just suggesting is incredibly far off.  What I think will happen is that we'll try simulating mammalian brains over the next 50 years or so, learning more and more about the actual brains as we reverse engineer them to simulate them in software.  Then, we'll try a human brain based on what we've learned, and it will be all kinds of F'd up.  Then we will iterate that technology over 50 years until we have a pretty damn good grasp on how the human brain works and a pretty good computer simulation of one.  It may take 200 years instead of 100, but I think we'll get human level intelligence at some point out of a computer.

That said, I think this has very little relevance to the topic at hand.  I agree with everyone else that the AI that will become ubiquitous will not have general intelligence.  It will just be good at processing data and deciding what to do.

One thing I often ponder, though, is what affect climate change will have on all this future technology.  If we end up starving, then how important will the newest AI really be?
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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2019, 01:17:56 PM »
I would say that even with all we know about brain function, we still do not know enough about it or about consciousness to be able to speculate on whether or not we could replicate it.

I personally do not believe that an electronic computer will ever be able to replicate or even simulate the actual workings of the brain. I do not doubt that someone could write a program that could convince a person that it was a person. But that's not the same thing at all. IOW, I do not believe that the Turing test is proof of consciousness, any more than winning a game of Go.

Do you think there is something going on in the brain that is not a physical process?  Something spiritual or supernatural?  If that is what you believe, then I see why you hold this opinion.  But, if you believe that the brain is a 100% physical process, then I just don't understand why you don't think we can simulate that in a computer once we understand it at an atomic level.  Perhaps you agree that we could, but that we will never understand the brain with sufficient fidelity?

There is in the brain an extremely complex interaction of electrical signals and chemical reactions ranging from extremely local to "global." There's interaction and physical responses to hormones and release of hormones which impact other parts of the brain. Some of these interactions occur at the molecular level. Some across small areas, some throughout the brain.  There's also an interplay of the unconscious/conscious brain, and instinctual aspects and theories about "lizard brain" and "mammalian" brain behaviors. And there are parts of the brain dedicated to fight or flight, and responding to stress, pain and pleasure. All of that combine to form HI (human intelligence) and consciousness, and there is no telling which, if any of those are superfluous or required. And there are huge gaps in our understanding of the physiology of thought and intelligence.

I actually don't believe we could ever replicate even a fraction of HI using computers and electricity alone, nor would we need to in order to create devices that act with intelligence. But even that is probably not really necessary. 

For something like driving, the actual AI needed to be able to drive a car in every situation is fairly simple and has been done. What's difficult is getting high quality information from the environment and accurately interpreting the data so the AI knows what's happening and can respond (all in an instant). Being able to determine the difference between a pedestrian that could dart out into traffic and a tree is not an intelligence issue. It's a data and data interpretation issue.

That's the same challenge that or roadblock to AI replacing a huge number of jobs.

Replacing novelists, artists, poets, scientists would be far more difficult than replacing drivers, plumbers, electricians, construction workers or laborers.

I sometimes disagree with CarbShark, but in the above, he answers the question as well as I could.

I do not believe there is anything supernatural about the brain or human intelligence. But while computers deal in nothing but electrical ones and zeros and are strictly digital, relying on complex algorithms to simulate anything analog, the brain is a chemical system which is highly analog and at least partly chaotic. The transmission of (chemical) signals along a nerve cell may look approximately digital in the string of pulses, but at the synapses a soup of hundreds of transmitter chemicals washes over the next cell to trigger it in a process that at the very least involves chaos and random interactions.

To replicate this using digital technology you would need a computer the size of the galaxy if you used components available today, and then you'd have to shrink it down to the size of my living room in order for the components to communicate with each other fast enough, and since you would need to perform calculations in real time to simultaneously simulate the chaotic interactions at a hundred trillion synapses, your clock speed would probably have to exceed the plank constant.

Accurately simulating such a massively complex analog system in a digital machine would probably require you to break several of the laws of physics. You might be able to build a computer that could simulate a femtosecond of brain activity if you ran it for a hundred thousand years.

We will build DNA to create synthetic people before we replicate the human brain in a computer. And then we will argue whether they should have rights or not. And then, being stronger and smarter and healthier than us, they'll take over. Except I don't believe humanity will survive long enough.

So the short answer is: Not supernatural, just too complex to simulate in a digital computer without breaking the laws of physics.
Daniel
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Offline amysrevenge

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Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2019, 01:30:16 PM »
Meh, computers don't have to be digital.  They just are right now.
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