Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?

[Obsessed With Gaming]

And what will people do if they don't have a job such as go out with friends, stay at home all day?

And how will people survive if they don't have money because A.I replaced all their jobs?

[John Albert]

What makes you think A.I. will replace most or all of our jobs?

Got any evidence to back up this begged question?

[Soldier of FORTRAN]

Ideally, we end up like Star Trek.  Society aligns with humanity's health and best interests.

Probably, we end up like Elysium.  Society doesn't align so, and access to goods and services is still mediated by either (1) having lots of money or (2) being employable. 

Got any evidence to back up this begged question?

Mass unemployment's plausible in the near-term. 

Article: Every study we could find on what automation will do to jobs, in one chart
From: MIT Technology Review
Date: 2018 JAN 15

...

Here’s the problem: the findings cited emanate from a wide array of studies released by companies, think tanks, and research institutions. And their prognostications are all over the map. [...]

...



...

Of course, not all statistics are created equal. The most commonly cited numbers are from three places: a 2013 Oxford study (not listed in the table) that said 47 percent of US jobs are at high risk of automation in the next few decades, an OECD study suggesting that 9 percent of jobs in the organization’s 21 member countries are automatable, and a McKinsey report from last year that said 400 million to 800 million jobs worldwide could be automated by 2030. [...]

...

With regards to the long-term, it's reasonable to surmise that eventually we'll run out of things we do better than machines and computer.  At that point, culture and politics will decide what happens.

And what will people do if they don't have a job such as go out with friends, stay at home all day?

And how will people survive if they don't have money because A.I replaced all their jobs?

Wrt near-term mass-unemployment, I'd hope for Basic Income and 20 hour work weeks.  Share the benefits from productivity gains and split jobs up between more people.

Wrt long-term total obviation of labor, I think this would be tantamount to post-scarcity.  "Fully Automated Luxury Communism," is my favorite 'comedy option' descriptor.

In the latter scenario, we'd still constrained by resources and science/engineering.  Because of that, I expect everyone would have access to a baseline but would still somehow compete for access to above-baseline goods and services. 

Also, people'd still want work (of some kind) for all the other reasons they work. People would work for some combination of social standing, purpose, fulfillment, identity, avoiding atrophy, etc.  Most people acclimate to baseline then want a better diet, better residence, etc.

I think all you'd really do is remove, "not dying in the next few weeks from starvation or exposure," from the list of motivations people have for working. 

[daniel1948]

A.I. changes the nature and character of work. It displaces some workers while creating jobs for others. A more relevant issue is that A.I. is an extension into the modern world of industrial automation, which transfers wealth from laborers to owners. When I was growing up in the 1950’s we were told that automation would relieve people of the need to work. We were told that people would work 5 or 6 hours a week (because machines would do the rest) and we would all have massive amounts of free time.

What happened was very different. As labor became more productive and less labor produced more wealth, the profits of that wealth all went to the owners, not to the workers. Wages did not rise with productivity, but rather workers had to work the same number of hours as before to make ends meet.

There was a blip in the U.S. after WWII because we were one of very few industrial economies undamaged by the war, and workers made great advances. But once the rest of the world repaired itself, and emerging nations became competitive, we’ve seen the trend go back to normal: the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Now it takes two wage-earners to support a family because all this increased productivity goes into the pockets of the owners.

A.I. will continue the trend and unskilled labor will earn less and less, while the middle class shrinks as the need for skilled and educated labor decreases.

Eventually the U.S. will look like a third-world country. Either that or general discontent will devolve into rioting and lead to either a military dictatorship or the collapse of the economy.

[Soldier of FORTRAN]

Yeah, I've seen that process first-hand while working as a production machinist.

The shop bought machine which could:

• Load/Unload itself
• Both Turn and Mill parts
• Machine two parts at a time
• Pass parts between its two tables

The work output of that machine?  In two days, it could do what previously would've taken multiple people and multiple machines a week to do. 

And where did the benefits accrue?  That shop had no profit sharing.  They were stingy as hell with raises. And machinists are all the more interchangeable with off-the-street newbies as the machines improve so their bargaining position just gets worse and worse.

[arthwollipot]

This seems relevant to this conversation.

[2397]

That is the point of technology, to be able to do more with less, as well as to do things we couldn't do before.

I'm okay with doing away with as many mundane jobs as possible. If they don't need to be done by humans, why should they? The key issue being maintaining or further developing democracy and ensuring that people hold the power, rather than only a minority of individuals with money and wealth.

[Tassie Dave]

Anyone who thinks businesses are using technology to replace us in mundane jobs for our own benefit is delusional.
They are doing it for their bottom line and their shareholders.

The industry I work in (Mining) is one of the main users of technology to replace humans.
There are whole mines in Australia ( and I assume the world) that have no human driven machinery. All trucks, loaders etc are computer controlled with 1 or 2 humans monitoring them from a control room.

Eventually every section of mining will be computer controlled.

I only have 12 years to retirement, so I'll be ok. But the next generation will not have work in this industry.

[Calinthalus]

As soon as it becomes more profitable for Walmart to replace drivers with self-driving semi-trucks that will happen overnight; followed by every other trucking company.  In the short term, this will only be used for long-haul trucking, but eventually truck driving will not be a thing people are hired to do.  Right now there are 3.5 million truck drivers in the U.S. alone.  This is just one of thousands of jobs that AI/tech will lower the number of people needed.  Sure, we still need repairmen for these machines, or people to help the machines do their jobs, or people to do some specific work; but the overall number of jobs are going to go down while the population still climbs.


Without some UBI scheme I don't see any happy path forward.

[Noisy Rhysling]

And how much disposable income will the lumpen proletariat have?

[Rai]

I wouldn't think so. Capitalism will just find a way to create more bullshit jobs to keep us employed to be exploited, unfree and unhappy.

[daniel1948]

And how much disposable income will the lumpen proletariat have?

They don’t have any disposable income now. It all goes to food and housing and often doesn’t even cover that so they go into debt. Effectively, many have negative disposable income.

At some point they either riot in the street or elect a racist maniac as president. Oh, wait, they’ve already done that.

[stands2reason]

The unemployment rate is basically at full employment (with caveats) and the fertility rate is dropping fast. (MISSION DUCKING ACCOMPLISHED)

The only way workers have a competitive advantage is if they are in shortage: in other words, lower the fertility rate. Thankfully this is already happening, and a trend that will hopefully continue. Remember, serfdom basically ended in Europe after the Plague wiped out about 1/3 of the population.

Perhaps the better question is, will AI be able to replace missing laborers fast enough? Over the next couple of decades there will be a very much needed population crash as the Baby Boomer die-off finishes up, and Gen-X starts retiring & dying.

[moj]

I would love to see a digital age of leisure. Universal basic income and bots to do all the jobs people don't chose to do. I'm afraid it won't be that idealic, but its what I would like to see. I don't think automation will ever get rid of all human jobs, but a very large number have to the potential to be done but robot or program. UBI will become very important when it happens but fear we won't get it going in time.

[wastrel]

I keep glancing at this topic and the though gets put in my head that will.i.am is going to replace us all.