Author Topic: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?  (Read 4383 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Rai

  • PIZZASAURUS
  • Global Moderator
  • Too Much Spare Time
  • *****
  • Posts: 7107
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2018, 12:19:02 PM »
I keep glancing at this topic and the though gets put in my head that will.i.am is going to replace us all.

He is already a shoddy Wyclef Jean replacement

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9902
  • Cache rules everything around me.
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2018, 02:41:22 PM »
I would love to see a digital age of leisure

... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.

Offline Ah.hell

  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 13382
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2018, 03:34:20 PM »
One thing I'm sure of is that most predictions will be wrong.

There a few things which are probably true.
A.  Computers and robots will continue to displace human labor, especially low skilled and repetitive work. What kinds of jobs will be at risk will continue to expand.
B.  Some amount of other work will be created that humans will be better suited to than machines(for now anyway).  Where the balance is?  IDK, I doubt anyone else does but there are no shortage of doom sayers nor utopian dreamers. 
C.  The machines will also create a lot of wealth and make things a lot cheaper which will benefit the rest of us along with the owners of said machines.  Again, where the balance ends up, IDK.  I think we'll all be better of but those in power and wealth will be much better of where the rest of us will be a little bit better off.   

Online amysrevenge

  • Baseball-Cap-Beard-Baby Guy
  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 6050
  • The Warhammeriest
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2018, 03:46:21 PM »
I'm definitely of two minds about this.  I mean, my whole career is "automation", and I go more in the Steve Novella direction for predictions of AI as "expert systems" and not as "electronic people".

There are some things that an expert system is just straight up better at than a person.  I mean, a PLC is better than a man looking at a pressure gauge as far as alerting about and responding to an alarm condition.  It's just true, and not even the guy who lost his "staring at a gauge" job can argue about it. That guy over there with a pipewrench is safer if the PLC is monitoring the plant than if Staring Guy is monitoring the plant.  And it doesn't make sense to talk about that system "making decisions".  The decisions are all made by a room full of engineers working out control narratives and shut down keys.  The system just responds in the way it was designed by people to do - it is no more "deciding" to shut down a process when the vessel pressure is too high, than a car is "deciding" to stop when the brake is pressed.

Ultimately, it's too broad of a category to just be For or Against.  There are trivial examples where you have to be For, and there are extreme counter examples where you have to be Against.  A lot of the popular media worry about AI is based on movies and SF stories and not really rooted in reality.
Big Mike
Grande Prairie AB Canada

Online Calinthalus

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 6585
    • My Page
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2018, 03:49:27 PM »
My fear of automation comes from living in the South (specifically Appalachia).  With mining shutting down, all jobs are either customer service, call center, or data entry.  There are a couple of factories still holding on, but when they get better robots they will pay less people.  Unless you can cut in in the health sector (which always does well) you don't have much hope.


Granted, I'm a code monkey writing data entry/OCR software to take peoples jobs away so maybe I'm part of the problem.
"I think computer viruses should count as life. Maybe it says something about human nature, that the only form of life we have created so far is purely destructive. Talk about creating life in our own image."
--Stephen Hawking

Online amysrevenge

  • Baseball-Cap-Beard-Baby Guy
  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 6050
  • The Warhammeriest
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2018, 03:53:28 PM »
I think it ends up being like a lot of modern problems - you can't look at any one instance and find an issue, it's only in aggregate that there starts to be something to worry about.

Like, it would be very difficult to take a look at any one specific case of automation that costs someone their job, and say "No, we should take out this expert system and put the human back in, even though the human will take longer/be less safe/have lower quality/etc."
Big Mike
Grande Prairie AB Canada

Online stands2reason

  • Empiricist, Positivist, Militant Agnostic
  • Poster of Extraordinary Magnitude
  • **********
  • Posts: 10746
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #21 on: December 10, 2018, 03:58:11 PM »
Remember when society collapsed because diesel tractors got rid of those oh-so-rewarding farming jobs?

Offline SkeptiQueer

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7736
  • DEEZ NUTZ
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #22 on: December 10, 2018, 04:25:32 PM »
Remember when society collapsed because diesel tractors got rid of those oh-so-rewarding farming jobs?

If the tractors gained the ability to manufacture new tractors, plant seed, monitor the growth, optimize fertilization and irrigation, monitor market conditions, harvest the crop, transport the crop, stock the goods for sale, and conduct the sales, accounting, managerial work, optimize and write new code for the next generation, and recycle out of date tractors, then yeah that's a good analogy. Otherwise you're confusing AI for a work-saving machine.

Additionally, the mechanization of labor did lead to labor crises in the South as farm hands sought new work. What new work will we do when machines are also the ones designing new machines, writing code, and performing surgery?
HIISSSSSSSS

Online amysrevenge

  • Baseball-Cap-Beard-Baby Guy
  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 6050
  • The Warhammeriest
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #23 on: December 10, 2018, 04:59:19 PM »
What new work will we do when machines are also the ones designing new machines, writing code, and performing surgery?

But the surgery one is a perfect example - what individual undergoing surgery is going to say "Nay, do not use this safer, faster, more accurate, better* expert system to save my life!  I demand instead a human surgeon who should have a job, and will perform, at best, similarly!"?

*Assuming such a machine demonstrably existed - if the machine is poor or experimental or inadequate, the example is not in effect.
Big Mike
Grande Prairie AB Canada

Online Noisy Rhysling

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 4923
    • Hyperwar, WWII in Hypertext.
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #24 on: December 10, 2018, 07:09:28 PM »

Additionally, the mechanization of labor did lead to labor crises in the South as farm hands sought new work. What new work will we do when machines are also the ones designing new machines, writing code, and performing surgery?
The Y-donor stared at the south-end of a north-bound mule instead of going to school after the fifth grade. He said that when the farmers got tractors they farmed more land.
"Sunday's horoscope is note worthy because of its strange, sudden and wholly unpredictable and inexplicable occurrences, affecting all phases of life." Your Horoscope" L.A. Evening Herald Express, Sat, 12/06/41

Offline SkeptiQueer

  • Too Much Spare Time
  • ********
  • Posts: 7736
  • DEEZ NUTZ
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #25 on: December 10, 2018, 07:28:12 PM »
What new work will we do when machines are also the ones designing new machines, writing code, and performing surgery?

But the surgery one is a perfect example - what individual undergoing surgery is going to say "Nay, do not use this safer, faster, more accurate, better* expert system to save my life!  I demand instead a human surgeon who should have a job, and will perform, at best, similarly!"?

*Assuming such a machine demonstrably existed - if the machine is poor or experimental or inadequate, the example is not in effect.

That's the point I'm making. When farming became mechanized, farm laborers (and freed slaves)oced to cities to work in manufacturing and new tech jobs like typidt and programmer. Stands2reason is saying "well there will be new jobs just like when tractors replaced farm labor" but AI could well replace even formerly skilled labor. Even if we protect jobs, 10 paralegals could be replaced by 1 computer, 3 nurses and a surgical team by a doctor overseeing a machine. The hospital I worked at was replacing custodians with robotic floor cleaners and supply clerks with robotic supply drones to transport material.
HIISSSSSSSS

Online Tassie Dave

  • Frequent Poster
  • ******
  • Posts: 2405
  • Go Tiges
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #26 on: December 11, 2018, 01:37:56 AM »
It was for rioting the against the mechanisation of farming equipment (and the subsequent job losses) in the early part of the 19th century that got one of ancestors sent from England to prison in Tasmania (Van Diemen's Land)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_Riots

The farm labourers of the time had no other work to go to. Just as those replaced by AI today are not always going to have some other career path.

I can see a not too distant future where goods will turn up at our houses that have had no human involved in their manufacture/growing/sales/packaging/transport/delivery etc




Online Billzbub

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 4344
  • I know you know I know
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #27 on: December 11, 2018, 02:10:29 PM »
I can see a not too distant future where goods will turn up at our houses that have had no human involved in their manufacture/growing/sales/packaging/transport/delivery etc

I think that was a Black Mirror episode.
Quote from: Steven Novella
gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

Offline arthwollipot

  • Reef Tank Owner
  • *********
  • Posts: 9167
  • Observer of Phenomena
Self-described nerd. Pronouns: He/Him.

Tarvek: There's more to being an evil despot than getting cake whenever you want it.
Agatha: If that's what you think, then you're DOING IT WRONG!

Online Billzbub

  • Stopped Going Outside
  • *******
  • Posts: 4344
  • I know you know I know
Re: Will A.I replace most if not all of our jobs?
« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2018, 10:12:37 AM »
What a stool.
Quote from: Steven Novella
gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

 

personate-rain