Author Topic: Episode #714  (Read 1806 times)

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Offline lucek

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2019, 02:25:30 PM »
One last thing we are looking at Y2Ks big brother in just under 19 years. The unix timecode rollover is going to happen on January 19 2038.

Do you really think there will be a lot of legacy 32 bit systems with a 32bit time_t around at that time? 64 bit time_t will be more than sufficient for the whole of our civilisation even if we're extremely optimistic as to how long it will last.
Did you even listen to the interview on Y2K? Somebody will fix it was the mentality in the 70s and 80s.
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Offline bachfiend

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2019, 09:16:46 PM »
Half the human population of the world cannot convert the precursor beta carotene to retinol, the form of vitamin A that humans can use.  Without fats in the diet, the problem is worsened.  Letting the populations eat risk return to the agricultural regimes that kept them healthy in the past would be a much better idea in many ways.  Might have to recover land form large corporations monocropping the land that peasants used to own and fed themselves with, before they were convinced to work in t shirt factories for consumers in the developed world.

Retinol (which is the form all humans can use) is plentiful in many animal products, like organ meat, egg, and fish roe, a part of their ancestral healthy diet.  Adding beta carotene to poor diets will not work very well, IMHO.  Might be better if vitamin A (not beta carotene) supplements were freely distributed.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19103647?dopt=Abstract

Your comment was wrong in so many ways that I just concentrated previously on the most obvious error that you claimed that half the world’s population is incapable of converting beta-carotene to vitamin A.

Some of the other errors.  Farmers in Bangladesh aren’t being forced to leave their farms.  Even life in a slum in Dhaka working in a clothing factory is better than toiling in paddy fields.  There’s more opportunities for advancement and education of their children. 

Rice is a staple food.  It’s an easy crop to grow and gain the necessary number of calories.  It’s a staple food.  Obviously, it would be better if the rural population were able to grow other foods, and also run chooks for their eggs, but that’s adding to their toil. 

« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 09:21:46 PM by bachfiend »
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Offline bachfiend

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2019, 09:31:45 PM »
Other reputable sources do say only 25% of humans aren't capable of converting beta carotene to retinol in necessary amounts but anyone needs fats in their diets to make the conversion, not likely in the group that takes 70% of their calories in rice.

Three hen's eggs have 20% of one's daily requirement for retinol, and about 25% of my daily protein and zero insulin requirement.  Mind you, I had 7 eggs today. The hens are back in production lately.

So 7 eggs would provide around half your daily vitamin A requirements?  Seven eggs a day is rather a lot, and isn’t ‘natural.’  Birds naturally try to conceal their nests and eggs.  It’s only with the development of agriculture and the domestication of poultry that the human habit of being able to eat large numbers of eggs throughout the year was able to develop.

Eating eggs is no more natural than eating high carbohydrate diets, including bread and rice.  I enjoy eating eggs too, but I try to limit them to one a day.
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Offline brilligtove

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2019, 09:44:13 PM »
One last thing we are looking at Y2Ks big brother in just under 19 years. The unix timecode rollover is going to happen on January 19 2038.

Do you really think there will be a lot of legacy 32 bit systems with a 32bit time_t around at that time? 64 bit time_t will be more than sufficient for the whole of our civilisation even if we're extremely optimistic as to how long it will last.

It is shocking how long legacy code lingers on.
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Online arthwollipot

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2019, 10:09:31 PM »
The rock cycle bit didn't surprise me. After all...

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Offline lonely moa

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #20 on: March 18, 2019, 01:26:24 PM »

Birds naturally try to conceal their nests and eggs.  It’s only with the development of agriculture and the domestication of poultry that the human habit of being able to eat large numbers of eggs throughout the year was able to develop.

Eating eggs is no more natural than eating high carbohydrate diets, including bread and rice.  I enjoy eating eggs too, but I try to limit them to one a day.

You aren't a student of ornithology, are you.  Ever strolled though a penguin colony?  Walked along a river? 

Humans ave been eating as many eggs as we could discover for as long as we have been hominid.  Some humans have been eating bread for less than 1% of our history, whilst many have only been introduced to wheat and rice only 1% of that.
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Offline Billzbub

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #21 on: March 18, 2019, 02:15:39 PM »
One last thing we are looking at Y2Ks big brother in just under 19 years. The unix timecode rollover is going to happen on January 19 2038.

Do you really think there will be a lot of legacy 32 bit systems with a 32bit time_t around at that time? 64 bit time_t will be more than sufficient for the whole of our civilisation even if we're extremely optimistic as to how long it will last.

It is shocking how long legacy code lingers on.

Very true.  I still have to work with a VAX.  From the wiki: "In August 2000, Compaq announced that the remaining VAX models would be discontinued by the end of the year.[18] By 2005 all manufacturing of VAX computers had ceased, but old systems remain in widespread use."

We'll see if it replaced by something more modern by 2038.
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Offline The Latinist

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2019, 02:47:37 PM »
The issue will not be primarily with desktop computers or even servers; it will be with embedded systems, many of which indeed use older, cheaper 32-but processors. Many routers, switches, etc. are of this type and may be impossible to upgrade.  And I don’t think Lucek is saying that the 2038 problem will cause the apocalypse; merely that it will require investment to remediate (indeed, many people have already spent many hours bringing 64-bit timecodes into common usage and even backporting them to 32-bit systems).  Like Y2K, it is a real issue that will cost a lot of money to fix, but which we have every reason to believe will, in fact, be fixed.

Also?  It’s not just a hardware issue; SQL, for instance uses 32-bit time codes and there is no way to remedy that without breaking compatibility with a great deal of existing code. As far as I’m aware, a solution to that has not yet been found.
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Offline Guillermo

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2019, 02:59:53 PM »
This has been the best interview this year so far.
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Offline 2397

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #24 on: March 18, 2019, 03:51:26 PM »
Technically correct.

Offline gebobs

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #25 on: March 18, 2019, 04:29:00 PM »
Half the human population of the world cannot convert the precursor beta carotene to retinol, the form of vitamin A that humans can use.

Indeed, it would be quite pointless to prevent the blindness of as many as a quarter of a million children annually if the measure is not universally effective; much better to let all half million succumb.

The Nirvana fallacy.

Offline bachfiend

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #26 on: March 18, 2019, 04:42:21 PM »

Birds naturally try to conceal their nests and eggs.  It’s only with the development of agriculture and the domestication of poultry that the human habit of being able to eat large numbers of eggs throughout the year was able to develop.

Eating eggs is no more natural than eating high carbohydrate diets, including bread and rice.  I enjoy eating eggs too, but I try to limit them to one a day.

You aren't a student of ornithology, are you.  Ever strolled though a penguin colony?  Walked along a river? 

Humans ave been eating as many eggs as we could discover for as long as we have been hominid.  Some humans have been eating bread for less than 1% of our history, whilst many have only been introduced to wheat and rice only 1% of that.

But humans (I’m confining myself to Homo sapiens) haven’t been eating as many as 7 eggs a day for all the year until they domesticated poultry and got them to lay eggs daily.  Which only happened within the last 10,000 years probably after humans developed agriculture, started growing wheat crops and baking bread.  Until then, eggs were a seasonal resource (when the birds were in breeding and nesting season once a year for a few weeks).  And birds tend to conceal themselves and their nests, or nest in inaccessible or difficult to get to areas such as cliffs, burrows, offshore islands or the Antarctic.

Yes - I have strolled through a penguin colony.  The stench is incredible (it’s enough to put anyone off the thought of food, let alone eggs).  And most penguins nest in the Antarctic, which doesn’t have permanent human settlement.  There are warm region penguins, such as the Galápagos penguin.  And the little penguin (not a good source of eggs).

The fact remains.  Eating eggs in large numbers throughout the entire year is no more natural than eating bread.  Both are recent, developing within 10,000/200,000 or 5% of the history of Homo sapiens.  If I lived 20,000 years ago I wouldn’t be able to eat my one egg a day 365 days a year.
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Offline bachfiend

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #27 on: March 18, 2019, 04:53:24 PM »
Half the human population of the world cannot convert the precursor beta carotene to retinol, the form of vitamin A that humans can use.

Indeed, it would be quite pointless to prevent the blindness of as many as a quarter of a million children annually if the measure is not universally effective; much better to let all half million succumb.

The Nirvana fallacy.

Agreed.  Golden Rice won’t cause any harm, and may do some good.   I have some doubts about whether it will be effective in its target population (but that’s another issue).  Lonely Moa keeps changing his argument, arguing initially that half the population can’t convert beta-carotene to vitamin A after misreading his linked abstract, and then changing it to a quarter, claiming a reference he can’t cite (I have my doubts going on his previous form).
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Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #28 on: March 18, 2019, 08:06:45 PM »
I got SoF right! That happens about one time out of ten. Yes, significantly worse than chance.

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The whole point of the item on golden rice was that the target populations eat almost nothing but rice. They can have a very low conversion rate and still get enough vitamin A to prevent blindness. And since there are no down-sides to golden rice, the only reason to oppose it is a quasi-religious fanatacism against GMOs, so powerful that saving a billion children from blindness seems insignificant. Even if you only save half, there are absolutely no down-sides to golden rice.
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Offline bachfiend

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Re: Episode #714
« Reply #29 on: March 18, 2019, 08:30:37 PM »
I got SoF right! That happens about one time out of ten. Yes, significantly worse than chance.

(click to show/hide)

The whole point of the item on golden rice was that the target populations eat almost nothing but rice. They can have a very low conversion rate and still get enough vitamin A to prevent blindness. And since there are no down-sides to golden rice, the only reason to oppose it is a quasi-religious fanatacism against GMOs, so powerful that saving a billion children from blindness seems insignificant. Even if you only save half, there are absolutely no down-sides to golden rice.

My prediction is that if it works, then we won’t hear anything from the anti-GMO ideologues.  If it doesn’t work, which hasn’t been excluded apparently since there’s been no studies of it in its target population (poor rural Bangladeshi), we’ll never hear the end of it.

I’m doing a little experiment with beta-carotene.  I love carrot juice.  I’m eating 1000 g of carrots a day, which is providing over 9 times the RDA.  No side effects so far (the only ones are caretenosis - an orangecolouration - and increased lung cancer in ex-smokers).
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