Author Topic: five thirty eight knows what they are doing  (Read 1226 times)

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Offline superdave

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five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« on: April 04, 2019, 08:09:56 PM »
they did an analysis of how well their predictions have gone over the years and they are pretty damn good.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/

of course nay sayers will point out that they got trump wrong, at which point they say they actually predicted he had about a  30 percent chance to win , which isnt shabby at all, etc.. but yeah their numbers check out.
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Offline Ah.hell

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2019, 09:16:01 AM »
That seems like a pretty lame criticism, "These guys are super accurate"
"Oh yeah! Then why did they get the thing wrong that everybody got wrong?"

Offline superdave

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2019, 09:30:22 AM »
the detractors don't grasp that 70% does not mean 100%.  Which is the why the followup to the article in the OP was titled "When We Say 70 Percent, It Really Means 70 Percent"

Also most other groups were saying numbers much higher than 70%.  Fiverthirty by far was the most accurate prediction.  Silver even wrote an article along of the lines of, if Trump wins it will be because he does X, Y and Z, and that's how it went down.
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Offline seamas

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2019, 12:47:08 PM »
the detractors don't grasp that 70% does not mean 100%.  Which is the why the followup to the article in the OP was titled "When We Say 70 Percent, It Really Means 70 Percent"

Also most other groups were saying numbers much higher than 70%.  Fiverthirty by far was the most accurate prediction.  Silver even wrote an article along of the lines of, if Trump wins it will be because he does X, Y and Z, and that's how it went down.

A good hitter in baseball is "out" 70% of the time---and if you were playing a lottery and had a 30% chance of winning,  you have to think hard on not entering.


Bizarre that people equated the 760% as a sure thing, and also bizarre that they take no note of that number was dropping pretty significantly after Comey's letter to congress.

Offline xenu

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2019, 12:52:47 PM »
I think they were within their margin of error too.
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Offline CarbShark

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2019, 01:46:31 PM »
Pollsters: Donald Trump has only 30% chance of winning ...

....

Pollsters: We were right his chances were 30% and he won


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and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

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Offline superdave

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2019, 02:48:17 PM »
the whole point of their article was a meta analysis.   Things they predicted to happen 30% of the time really did happen 30% of the time.
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Offline CarbShark

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2019, 03:09:23 PM »
the whole point of their article was a meta analysis.   Things they predicted to happen 30% of the time really did happen 30% of the time.

More like 35. Some of their biggest errors were in the 25% and 35%


How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts? | FiveThirtyEight

Quote
On Aug. 14, 2016, we gave Donald Trump a 6 percent chance of winning Michigan. He won.

 

If Hillary had won Michigan the Electoral College would have been a lot closer (but still not enough)
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

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Online jt512

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2019, 03:34:51 PM »
the whole point of their article was a meta analysis.   Things they predicted to happen 30% of the time really did happen 30% of the time.

More like 35. Some of their biggest errors were in the 25% and 35%

What does that mean?  How are you defining an "error."
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Offline Shibboleth

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2019, 03:35:48 PM »
35% of the time it works all the time.
common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

Online brilligtove

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2019, 04:35:46 PM »
Did we move into a Pratchettverse where the one in a million chance happens nine times out of ten?
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Offline CarbShark

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2019, 05:04:36 PM »
the whole point of their article was a meta analysis.   Things they predicted to happen 30% of the time really did happen 30% of the time.

More like 35. Some of their biggest errors were in the 25% and 35%

What does that mean?  How are you defining an "error."

Look at the forecast chart on the page I linked to. Hover over the 25% and the 35% points. It indicates how far off they were from a prediction that something would happen 25% of the time and 35% of the time.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Online jt512

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2019, 05:26:26 PM »
the whole point of their article was a meta analysis.   Things they predicted to happen 30% of the time really did happen 30% of the time.

More like 35. Some of their biggest errors were in the 25% and 35%

What does that mean?  How are you defining an "error."

Look at the forecast chart on the page I linked to. Hover over the 25% and the 35% points. It indicates how far off they were from a prediction that something would happen 25% of the time and 35% of the time.

I'm still not sure what you're getting at.  The chart shows that in this category—presidential elections—events that were given probabilities of 25% and 35% occurred with somewhat smaller frequency: 13% and 18%, respectively.  Overall, the chart suggests that for presidential elections the model is somewhat too timid, that is, forecasts tend to be too close to 50%.  So predicted probabilities in the range of 25% to 35%, like Trump winning in 2016 (28%), tended to be overstated; unlikely events, like Trump being elected, should have been given even smaller probabilities.  Is that what you're saying?
« Last Edit: April 05, 2019, 05:40:00 PM by jt512 »
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Offline PANTS!

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2019, 03:05:28 PM »
I believe he is saying that he has a deeply ingrained ignorance of stats that he mistakes for the knowledge base of a PHd and a lifetime of experience.
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Offline CarbShark

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Re: five thirty eight knows what they are doing
« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2019, 04:38:06 PM »
I'm still not sure what you're getting at.  The chart shows that in this category—presidential elections—events that were given probabilities of 25% and 35% occurred with somewhat smaller frequency: 13% and 18%, respectively.  Overall, the chart suggests that for presidential elections the model is somewhat too timid, that is, forecasts tend to be too close to 50%.  So predicted probabilities in the range of 25% to 35%, like Trump winning in 2016 (28%), tended to be overstated; unlikely events, like Trump being elected, should have been given even smaller probabilities.  Is that what you're saying?

Not exactly. I'm saying that of their forecasts that had a 25% and a 35% probability came in at a significantly lower percentages.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

 

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