Author Topic: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.  (Read 940 times)

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Offline Igor SMC

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Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« on: May 26, 2019, 03:20:00 PM »


Thats it guys. The collapse of global civilization is just a matter of time now... Or can we still reverse this? How can we prevent the feedback events from accelerating climate change even more?
"Knowledge is preferable to ignorance. Better by far to embrace the hard truth than a reassuring fable"

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2019, 03:43:33 PM »
"I appear as a skeptic, who believes that doubt is the great engine, the great fuel, of all inquiry, all discovery, and all innovation" - Christopher Hitchens

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2019, 04:08:06 PM »
Thats it guys. The collapse of global civilization is just a matter of time now...

Yeah, I'm not optimistic!

We should be planning for collapse.
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline 2397

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2019, 04:41:01 PM »
I don't think it's an unsolvable problem, but solving it relies on using a few of the tens of trillions of USD/equivalent of global GDP on it. As well as having an active policy on it in every major aspect of the economy.

We are where we are because so far we've mainly been doing PR on the climate. Maybe handled local pollution in some countries, while becoming more dependent on polluting industries in others countries. We're talking about trade imbalances and lack of growth as if those are the biggest things to worry about, but the world is as wealthy as it has ever been. Why is the economy structured such that it's going to fail as soon as it stops growing further?

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2019, 05:00:35 PM »
Why is the economy structured such that it's going to fail as soon as it stops growing further?

By instinct, we kill every golden goose we can get our hands on.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day.  Teach a man to fish and he will systematically exterminate all aquatic life.
If global warming is real then how come I just felt this chill down my spine?

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2019, 08:55:14 PM »
We could switch to sustainable energy. We could recycled much of what we throw in the trash. We could cut way back on waste. We have the technology. But the people who make the political decisions are old rich white men whose time horizon is so short that they don't care what the world is like in 50 years because they won't be here then. And the poorly-educated, religion-indoctrinated populace is so stupid it follows, yea, it demands, demagogues. The consolation for being on the cusp of 71 years old and having my body fall apart and my memory going haywire, is that I probably won't live long enough to suffer from the crimes my generation has inflicted on the Earth.
Daniel
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Online CarbShark

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2019, 10:27:46 PM »
We could switch to sustainable energy. We could recycled much of what we throw in the trash. We could cut way back on waste. We have the technology. But the people who make the political decisions are old rich white men whose time horizon is so short that they don't care what the world is like in 50 years because they won't be here then. And the poorly-educated, religion-indoctrinated populace is so stupid it follows, yea, it demands, demagogues. The consolation for being on the cusp of 71 years old and having my body fall apart and my memory going haywire, is that I probably won't live long enough to suffer from the crimes my generation has inflicted on the Earth.

Talkin' 'bout my generation!
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline lonely moa

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2019, 02:39:54 AM »
It's "all over, Rover", IMHO.

E.O. Wilson* reckoned some time last century, that the Earth could sustain 500-1000 million humans at a developed nation level.  Well, bhave surpassed that by an order of magnitude.

* Nobody was better than Ed at bio-numbers.
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Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2019, 12:12:32 PM »
We should be planning for collapse.

I think it is a bit more complicated than that.
"I appear as a skeptic, who believes that doubt is the great engine, the great fuel, of all inquiry, all discovery, and all innovation" - Christopher Hitchens

Offline 2397

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2019, 02:03:52 PM »
It's "all over, Rover", IMHO.

E.O. Wilson* reckoned some time last century, that the Earth could sustain 500-1000 million humans at a developed nation level.  Well, bhave surpassed that by an order of magnitude.

* Nobody was better than Ed at bio-numbers.

The global pre-industrial population was less than 1 billion, and we were already having a significant negative impact through land use and directly killing off species.

I think we should only embrace below-replacement reproduction levels. However problematic it is in the short term, it's not about the short term. At least not until the short term and long term become the same because civilization is about to end.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2019, 02:06:35 PM »
civilization is about to end.

That's a bit of a hyperbole, don't you think?
"I appear as a skeptic, who believes that doubt is the great engine, the great fuel, of all inquiry, all discovery, and all innovation" - Christopher Hitchens

Offline 2397

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2019, 05:13:46 AM »
Do note the full context of that statement, but that is the ultimate the consequence of all of this.

We could go from having hundreds of millions of climate refugees, to not having a breathable atmosphere anymore as ocean life goes extinct and trees don't do much better with intense drought and shifting climate zones. Anthropogenic climate change is more of a threat to us than being hit by a massive meteor. The disruption will be total, everyone on the planet will be affected. Unless we can dedicate massive resources to producing atmospheric oxygen, and probably do a lot of filtering of the atmosphere otherwise, humans won't be able to go outside anymore. That makes maintaining our civilization far more difficult.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 05:19:29 AM by 2397 »

Offline Ah.hell

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2019, 09:00:44 AM »
Such predictions have been made before. 

The developed nations have embraced below replacement population growth.  Developing nations seem to be following suit. 

The US has reduced carbon emissions over the last few decade or so. 

I am not nearly as pessimistic as you lot. 

Offline 2397

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2019, 10:00:41 AM »
There's a whole other thread for the stats, but here's an article about it: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions

Again I think it's a solvable problem. We are not currently solving it, we continue to make things worse at an increasing rate.

Quote
No climate policies: projected future emissions if no climate policies were implemented; this would result in an estimated 4.1-4.8°C warming by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial temperatures)
Current climate policies: projected warming of 3.1-3.7°C by 2100 based on current implemented climate policies
National pledges: if all countries achieve their current targets/pledges set within the Paris climate agreement, it's estimated average warming by 2100 will be 2.6-3.2°C. This will go well beyond the overall target of the Paris Agreement to keep warming "well below 2°C".
2°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 2°C by 2100. This would require a significant increase in ambition of the current pledges within the Paris Agreement.
1.5°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 1.5°C by 2100. However, all would require a very urgent and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 10:15:54 AM by 2397 »

Offline superdave

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Re: Positive Feedback Has Begun. Humankind has failed.
« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2019, 01:20:14 PM »
good riddance.
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