Author Topic: Episode #725  (Read 3758 times)

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Offline brilligtove

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #30 on: June 04, 2019, 02:14:55 PM »
If we ever make monofilament blades that work in the real-world the implications for mining are insane. Tunnelling that takes vast amounts of power and time now? You'd be limited by how fast you can cart the rubble away and shore up the structure. Maybe he's making a long bet on tunnelling tech that depends on materials that don't exist yet.

Or plasma-torch tunneling.


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I looked into that a while back. There are a lot of really hard problems with plasma mining, and it is super energy intensive. We still need new supermaterials to be able to make it work. :(
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Offline Harry Black

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #31 on: June 04, 2019, 02:50:19 PM »
If we ever make monofilament blades that work in the real-world the implications for mining are insane. Tunnelling that takes vast amounts of power and time now? You'd be limited by how fast you can cart the rubble away and shore up the structure. Maybe he's making a long bet on tunnelling tech that depends on materials that don't exist yet.

Or plasma-torch tunneling.


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I looked into that a while back. There are a lot of really hard problems with plasma mining, and it is super energy intensive. We still need new supermaterials to be able to make it work. :(
Earth is quite rich in energon cubes iirc. We just need to find a way to extract them.
Ironically plasma mining would really help with that.

Offline stands2reason

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #32 on: June 04, 2019, 04:04:33 PM »
Hyperloop makes no sense for individual passenger cars. Of course, Elon Musk is not concerned about naturally-aspirated cars. But cars would still have to be pressurized.

Clearly, the engineers involved already understand this. The Rogues seemingly presented the topic, at least at first, as though partial vacuum hyperloop might be particularly useful by cars.

But, of course they are referring to the Boring Co. prototype idea where the car is parked on an electric rail sled and moved around in a tunnel. At that case, depending on the vacuum, it might be like flying at altitude.

Online CarbShark

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #33 on: June 04, 2019, 04:25:56 PM »
If we ever make monofilament blades that work in the real-world the implications for mining are insane. Tunnelling that takes vast amounts of power and time now? You'd be limited by how fast you can cart the rubble away and shore up the structure. Maybe he's making a long bet on tunnelling tech that depends on materials that don't exist yet.

Or plasma-torch tunneling.


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I looked into that a while back. There are a lot of really hard problems with plasma mining, and it is super energy intensive. We still need new supermaterials to be able to make it work. :(
My understanding is they developed a working and practical system that was used for underground nuclear testing, but once that program ended the system development ended too. It hasn’t been picked up in the private sector because the technology transfer rules made the fees too high.

Private development has never gotten off the ground. Well,  under the ground.


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Offline The Latinist

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #34 on: June 04, 2019, 07:09:40 PM »
Mars is as good a place as any to be when you're dead. Seems that Musk hasn't any interest in pioneering Mars with his own body.

He has repeatedly expressed a desire to colonize Mars himself, saying famously that he wants, “to die on Mars, but not on impact.”
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Online arthwollipot

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #35 on: June 04, 2019, 07:37:31 PM »
Mars is as good a place as any to be when you're dead. Seems that Musk hasn't any interest in pioneering Mars with his own body.

It ain't the kind of place to raise your kids. In fact, it's cold as hell.
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Offline DevoutCatalyst

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #36 on: June 04, 2019, 07:42:40 PM »
Mars is as good a place as any to be when you're dead. Seems that Musk hasn't any interest in pioneering Mars with his own body.

He has repeatedly expressed a desire to colonize Mars himself, saying famously that he wants, “to die on Mars, but not on impact.”

He wants to go first? Or after safety has been established by others? If it's the former, man, that's a weird piece of real estate to risk your life over.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #37 on: June 04, 2019, 08:46:56 PM »
Presumably they have to be electric cars. How do combustion engines work in low pressure environments?
I think it could be done but they would need to be supplied with oxygen.

I am always amazed at the Musk fan boys.  He's had one successful venture which he used to see several very optimistic ventures that have mostly been funded by the irrational exuberance of folks with money.  <...snip...>

You don't consider building the best cars on the planet to be a success? Or sending re-supply mission to the ISS and recovering the booster stages for re-use? You seem to think that were it not for "the irrational exuberance of folks with money" his companies would go bankrupt. Yet, it's really not just irrational exuberant folks with money, it's very savvy investors. Having owned two Teslas (the Roadster for 7 years, and now the Model 3 with so-called "enhanced autopilot," which I readily admit is a misleading term) I can say that these cars are mind-blowing, and sell themselves. Yes, as a new start-up Tesla has had difficulties. But the nay-sayers keep predicting Tesla's demise, and every new car model introduced gives them another boost, and another humongous line-up of people dying to get their hands on one. And every Tesla model except the Roadster (where Tesla built only the drive train and not the rolling chassis) gets a 5-star safety rating in every category. They are the safest cars on the road.
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Online Alex Simmons

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #38 on: June 05, 2019, 01:03:01 AM »
They are nice cars but extremely expensive.

The "cheapest" model (the model 3) is well over $70k here. If you can actually get one. Add any sort of feature/option and you are rapidly heading towards $100k, and if you want performance option you are north of $110k. This is for their cheaper model.

As for the even more expensive models, they are all pretty much made from unobtainium.

Offline Ah.hell

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #39 on: June 05, 2019, 09:23:07 AM »
Daniel,

I don't deny that tesla has made some great cars, unfortunately he doesn't make them fast enough or cheap enough to be a sustainable company.  If I make the best she in the world but it costs 10k to produce and I sell it for 9k, plus my customers currently get a government kick back for buying it.  That is not a shoe company folks would invest in, let alone think was equal in value to Nike. 

Investments in Tesla remain a gamble.  It is a tech start up, not a car company if you judge by the price to earnings ratio. At one point it had greater value than GM, a company that produces more cars in a month than Tesla has at all.  That is irrational.   They may succeed but they may not.   I like many of the things Musk has done, I just think it would be a mistake to invest much in his ventures just yet.  If I had a few grand I could afford to loose, I might take that bet, I won't be betting my kids college fund on it though.


Except for the boring company and hyper-loop, those are stupid and great examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect.  Musk maybe an expert in one field or even two but he's not a civil/transportation engineer. 

Online CarbShark

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #40 on: June 05, 2019, 02:02:24 PM »
Daniel,

I don't deny that tesla has made some great cars, unfortunately he doesn't make them fast enough or cheap enough to be a sustainable company.  If I make the best she in the world but it costs 10k to produce and I sell it for 9k, plus my customers currently get a government kick back for buying it.  That is not a shoe company folks would invest in, let alone think was equal in value to Nike. 

Investments in Tesla remain a gamble.  It is a tech start up, not a car company if you judge by the price to earnings ratio. At one point it had greater value than GM, a company that produces more cars in a month than Tesla has at all.  That is irrational.   They may succeed but they may not.   I like many of the things Musk has done, I just think it would be a mistake to invest much in his ventures just yet.  If I had a few grand I could afford to loose, I might take that bet, I won't be betting my kids college fund on it though.


Except for the boring company and hyper-loop, those are stupid and great examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect.  Musk maybe an expert in one field or even two but he's not a civil/transportation engineer.

He can't make them fast enough because the demand is so high he can't keep up. I wish I could fail that way.

Both Boring Company and Hyper-loop are early stages and he's hired experts in the field (engineers).

And, yes, he is planning to run Hyper-loops in some of the tunnels dug by Boring Company.

He has also shifted from the plan to move cars through the tunnels to giving a priority to people (with bikes and scooters) and, maybe later, cars.
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Offline The Latinist

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #41 on: June 05, 2019, 02:10:13 PM »
He can't make them fast enough because the demand is so high he can't keep up. I wish I could fail that way.

That is not the only reason. It is my understanding that the cars have overcomplicated robot-assembled designs which slow production, create bottlenecks, and limit both scalability of production and economy of scale.
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Online CarbShark

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #42 on: June 05, 2019, 02:54:08 PM »
He can't make them fast enough because the demand is so high he can't keep up. I wish I could fail that way.

That is not the only reason. It is my understanding that the cars have overcomplicated robot-assembled designs which slow production, create bottlenecks, and limit both scalability of production and economy of scale.

I had heard the same thing. Not sure how accurate or up to date those arguments are.
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Online bachfiend

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #43 on: June 05, 2019, 03:21:41 PM »
He can't make them fast enough because the demand is so high he can't keep up. I wish I could fail that way.

That is not the only reason. It is my understanding that the cars have overcomplicated robot-assembled designs which slow production, create bottlenecks, and limit both scalability of production and economy of scale.

I had heard the same thing. Not sure how accurate or up to date those arguments are.

If I was in the market for an electric car, I wouldn’t be considering a Tesla (they’re just too over-priced).  I think they’re more of a status symbol.  I’d be waiting for something considerably cheaper.  But really, I can’t justify the expense of an electric car.  I don’t do enough kilometres t make it worth the expense.  Most months, I’d only do 2 kilometres (transporting the dog).  My main private mode of transport is my e-bike, and the times I need to go further I can take it on a train.
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Offline Ah.hell

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Re: Episode #725
« Reply #44 on: June 05, 2019, 03:33:03 PM »
He can't make them fast enough because the demand is so high he can't keep up. I wish I could fail that way.
That's fine, it still shouldn't have a stock value anywhere near one of the worlds biggest car manufactures nor does it say anything about whether he will ever produce enough cars to justify that value.  Its actually quite a silly thing to say as a defense too. IF there were two people a year that wanted to by my hypothetical 10k shoe and I could only make 1 a year that I sold for 9k, nobody would spin that as a good sign for my company.
Quote

Both Boring Company and Hyper-loop are early stages and he's hired experts in the field (engineers).

And, yes, he is planning to run Hyper-loops in some of the tunnels dug by Boring Company.

He has also shifted from the plan to move cars through the tunnels to giving a priority to people (with bikes and scooters) and, maybe later, cars.
No operational* hyper-loop style train will every be built.  If it were almost anyone else who was talking about it, nobody would take it seriously.  I think the SGU actually got this right, it has all of the same challenges as standard rail and the improvement in speed and efficiently will be dwarfed by the increased cost and additional complexity/hazards of a sealed tube under a vacuum. 

The boring company is only stupid because Musk said he could dig tunnels at 10x the speed and half the cost of experts in field, and for some reason this claim was taken seriously.  There's nothing particularly remarkable about the boring company other than its name and the initial claim.   

*Operational,  as in actually moving people between two locations that people want to travel between. 

I don't actually dislike Musk, I very much dislike the cult around him that just seems to ignore the problems with his endeavors.