Author Topic: Collapsology: How the global civilization will collapse?  (Read 714 times)

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Offline Igor SMC

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Collapsology: How the global civilization will collapse?
« on: June 28, 2019, 03:41:50 PM »
Societal collapse is the fall of a complex human society. Such a disintegration may be relatively abrupt, as in the case of Maya civilization, or gradual, as in the case of the fall of the Western Roman Empire. The subject of societal collapse is of interest in such fields as history, anthropology, sociology, political science, and, more recently, cliodynamics and complex-systems science. (

Recently, Sam Harris interviewed Jared Diamond on his podcast, about the Rise and Fall of civilizations... I think it was a very interesting discussion, and it led me to the discovery of the field of Collapsology. The causes of the collapse, processes and recovery attempts by societies can be structured and studied in a proper scientific way, allowing us to create models that can help governments make better decisions and foresee with a certain accuracy how and when the collapse can actually happen. In the terms of the oncoming collapse of the global civilization, this field can prove itself extremely useful, as it can point precisely were we need to look for solutions.

How the variables will interact with each other? What technologies can we develop to help us cope with the collapse? Note that there is a difference between technologies that try to prevent climate change (By reducing CO2 emissions for example), and technologies that will help us during and after the collapse (For example, effective crop techniques to grow food under higher temperatures, different latitudes, etc).

It is important to notice that the collapse of a civilization IS NOT THE END. Global warming will come... But life on Earth will continue. Human civilization will continue... in a way or another. Our generation will face the collapse, but in 300 years in the future the weather will probably have settled into a new normal, and humanity can start again there... this time, being more responsible. We must reduce CO2 as fast as possible so that future is less different than the current weather patterns. The more CO2 we pump into the air, the greater the difference between the scenarios, the greater the loss of biodiversity and the greater the unnecessary suffering of billions of humans.

Examples of a modern Societal collapse:

My objective with this topic is to better understand precisely how climate change will affect and change our societies... I mean, apart from the obvious sea level rises and rising temperatures (that are more general consequences), what are the specifics of the change mechanisms? How climate change will affect food prices? What types of foods will be more affected? What industries? Which countries are the most resilient, and the most vulnerable? When can we expect the actual collapse to start? Are there any solutions to save all humanity knowledge or if our data centers get destroyed thats the end of it and we will need to start from scratch?

« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 03:54:24 PM by Igor SMC »
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Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Re: Collapsology: How the global civilization will collapse?
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2019, 04:04:32 PM »
Predicting a specific date for an economic collapse is a fool's errand. And I am not aware of any scholar who thinks that world population will start to decrease by 2030.

I wouldn't say Venezuela has collapsed. And its problems is because it is run by a corrupt kleptocracy, not because of climate change. Syria is a better example, as the drought that preceded the civil war was likely the result of climate change, but then again, Jordan and Lebanon were also affected by that drought, yet these countries didn't fall into civil war. So political systems play a role here as well.

As for which countries will cope the best, generally, richer countries will cope better than poorer countries for the simple reason that they have an easier time to afford to pay to adapt. Also geographical factors like being far north already (...) is almost certainly an advantage.

And of course I agree that we need to do all we can to prevent more greenhouse gases from getting in the air, and to adapt to the already baked-in coming changes. It is ridiculous how lame our governments are.
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Offline Igor SMC

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Re: Collapsology: How the global civilization will collapse?
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2019, 07:53:18 PM »
I wouldn't say Venezuela has collapsed.

Venezuela was the richest country in South America.

Now it has an inflation rate of 10,000,000%

90% of Venezuela's population has dropped below the poverty line.
Just in the past years, Venezuela lost 10% of its population due to a huge flow of refugees leaving the country, and these numbers are still increasing exponentially. A homeless person begging in the streets in Brazil in one single day can make 3 times the money that an engineer does in Venezuela.... IN A MONTH. Let that sink in.

It is very sad for millions of people... But yes, we can say with 100% certainty that Venezuela society has collapsed.... really hard.
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Offline Igor SMC

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Re: Collapsology: How the global civilization will collapse?
« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2019, 12:37:28 PM »

This is one example of a very specific phenomena that will drive the collapse of certain regions: Water.
The permanent change in the weather pattern can cause a water source to become completely depleted, not being able to ever return to its previous levels. This is aggravated by the fact that the less water there is, people start collecting it even more as they want to create stock for their own families. This will cause a massive migration... and when all of a sudden tens of millions of people are forced to relocate, this group of people become more simplified.

Reversion/Simplification: A society's adaptive capacity may be reduced by either a rapid change in population or societal complexity, destabilizing its institutions and causing massive shifts in population and other social dynamics. In cases of collapse, civilizations tend to revert to less complex, less centralized socio-political forms using simpler technology. These are characteristics of a Dark Age. Examples of such societal collapse are: the Hittite Empire, the Mycenaean civilization, the Western Roman Empire, the Mauryan and Gupta Empires in India, the Mayas, the Angkor in Cambodia, the Han and Tang dynasties in China and the Mali Empire.

Climate change will alter the rain and drought dynamics of many regions. Some regions have backup systems... others do not. The depletion of the only source of water will cause mass migration.

Another very important thing to point out, is that the more regions collapses, more people relocate, and the greater is the stress on the political, societal structures of the places they migrate to. A region that is not experiencing depletion of resources, might start suffering from it as they instantaneously receive millions of extra people.


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Offline Shibboleth

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Re: Collapsology: How the global civilization will collapse?
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2019, 09:19:56 AM »
It will most likely involve someone being injected with a vaccine derived from GMO created gluten. Everyone will instantly get super autism.
common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.

Offline Soldier of FORTRAN

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Re: Collapsology: How the global civilization will collapse?
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2019, 02:13:26 PM »
This looks interesting and relevant:

Wiki: "Planetary boundaries is a concept involving Earth System processes which contain environmental boundaries, proposed in 2009 by a group of Earth system and environmental scientists led by Johan Rockström from the Stockholm Resilience Centre and Will Steffen from the Australian National University. The group wanted to define a "safe operating space for humanity" for the international community, including governments at all levels, international organizations, civil society, the scientific community and the private sector, as a precondition for sustainable development. The framework is based on scientific evidence that human actions since the Industrial Revolution have become the main driver of global environmental change."

... in war the screams are loud and harsh and in peace the wail is so drawn-out we tell ourselves we hear nothing.