Author Topic: Episode #731  (Read 1586 times)

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Offline Steven Novella

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Episode #731
« on: July 13, 2019, 07:13:11 AM »
5-10 Years: Recorded FutureNews Items: Eating Jellies, Rebutting Denialism, Cancer Quackery on YouTube, Detecting EarthquakesWho's That NoisyScience or Fiction
Steven Novella
Host, The Skeptics Guide
snovella@theness.com

Offline brilligtove

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2019, 09:56:16 AM »
I can't decide if they gave the Recorded Future a fair shake. I'll have to go back and listen to the discussion from 9 years ago. I remember that there were a lot of wild claims about predictive analytics back then. At the time I was surprised at how few people mentioned Psychohistory. One of the unexpected barriers to effective forecasting is the way we embed our biases in our models. On the negative side, that systematizes terrible practices such as institutionalized racism. On the positive side, having a computer behave in an obviously biased way has thrown some biases into sharp relief.
evidence trumps experience | performance over perfection | responsibility – authority = scapegoat | emotions motivate; data doesn't

Offline Belgarath

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2019, 10:00:34 AM »
At the time I was surprised at how few people mentioned Psychohistory.


Wait, isn't psychohistory something completely made up by Issac Asimov for his Foundation series?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon
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Online The Latinist

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2019, 10:14:41 AM »
Next you’ll be telling me that the Mule never existed.
I would like to propose...that...it is undesirable to believe in a proposition when there is no ground whatever for supposing it true. — Bertrand Russell

Offline brilligtove

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2019, 10:20:51 AM »
It was, Belgarath. Predictive analytics certainly feels a lot like the larval form of the psychohistory he invented.


ETA from that wikipedia link:
"There is speculation in Forbes that Seldon's psychohistory is being manifested in today's emergence of Big Data[4]"

FYI: EP 264, starts at 20:30 with Evan as the reporting Rogue.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 11:34:26 AM by brilligtove »
evidence trumps experience | performance over perfection | responsibility – authority = scapegoat | emotions motivate; data doesn't

Offline brilligtove

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2019, 11:55:21 AM »
I just listened to the old segment. That was interesting. Steve, in particular, called out some of the more troubling aspects of big data and privacy that we are seeing today. He was leaning toward "in 20 years" for a lot of stuff that broke wide open in 5 years.

This might be my favourite segment of the show.
evidence trumps experience | performance over perfection | responsibility – authority = scapegoat | emotions motivate; data doesn't

Offline GodHead

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2019, 01:21:19 PM »
Regarding Mari Lopez dying, it's not sad at all.

These are useless scumpeople and they deserve to die.

Medical quackery should not even be fought, because it is a problem that takes care of itself. We should be trying to encourage it and make it as deadly as possible in order to wipe out as many morons as possible.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 01:23:34 PM by GodHead »

Offline Mas

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2019, 02:12:44 PM »
Valentina Tereshkova (purportedly the person on the recording in WTN) is alive and and a member of the Russian legislature to boot. She was, as Jay said, the first Russian woman in space, but was also the first woman in space period, by almost 20 years. Googling around a little bit, there does appear to be a conspiracy theory that the Soviets covered up the deaths of cosmonauts, but no female cosmonauts are known to have died on a space mission. This recording seems to be part of the "lost cosmonauts" conspiracy theory and claims that the Soviets sent an unknown female cosmonaut before Tereshkova on a solo mission and successfully covered up her entire existence after she died on re-entry (but for this recording by two Americans).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valentina_Tereshkova

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Cosmonauts#The_Torre_Bert_recordings

Offline 2397

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2019, 05:34:26 PM »
Medical quackery should not even be fought, because it is a problem that takes care of itself. We should be trying to encourage it and make it as deadly as possible in order to wipe out as many morons as possible.

It wouldn't be as much of a problem if parents didn't abuse and neglect their children with it.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2019, 06:17:18 PM »
Lanai is the Hawaiian word for a balcony. Lana'i is the name of the small island Cara visited. These are two entirely different words with similar but different pronunciations.
Daniel
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Offline CarbShark

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2019, 07:19:21 PM »
Next you’ll be telling me that the Mule never existed.

Maybe Donald Trump is the mule?
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline CarbShark

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2019, 07:20:30 PM »
Regarding Mari Lopez dying, it's not sad at all.

These are useless scumpeople and they deserve to die.

Medical quackery should not even be fought, because it is a problem that takes care of itself. We should be trying to encourage it and make it as deadly as possible in order to wipe out as many morons as possible.

Nonsense. Social Darwinian nonsense.
and Donald Trump is President of the United States.

I'm not a doctor, I'm just someone who has done a ton of research into diet and nutrition.

Offline daniel1948

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2019, 09:15:10 PM »
Every science denier I've ever met claimed that their beliefs were the actual science, or were supported by actual science. Either that or they based their belief on "personal experience" or the personal experience of a friend or relative. A good friend of mine, who I thought was intelligent, insists that his mother had crippling arthritis until she switched to organic foods and then her arthritis cleared up entirely and now she's fine. There's nothing I can say to that other than "You're lying" and that would serve no purpose.

I've also encountered the story that goes: "My friend/relative had cancer and they did/took X and the doctor said he couldn't understand it but the cancer was gone." The YouTuber discussed on the show declared herself cured, if I understand correctly. But in the story I always hear, it's a doctor who declares the person to be free of cancer. I assume the people telling this story are simply lying. Or they heard it and believed it, and feel justified in repeating it but claiming personal knowledge of the person who was cured.

My sister probably actually believes that her acupuncture is making her feel better (she also gets acupuncture for her dog, and insists that he feels better after). But it's one thing when someone thinks they feel better after acupuncture or homeopathy. What makes people actually LIE about cancer stories, claiming to know someone whose doctor "verified" they were cured after using some scam remedy, when (I suppose) they are merely repeating something they heard? (Because there's no way in hell these stories are true, or that they actually know someone whose doctor told them he was amazed, but they are cured.)

The only response I can think of would be to invent another lie: "Who did you say this was? Oh, Janet? Heck, I met her at a party last week and she told me she was lying to you because she thought you'd be stupid enough to believe it."
Daniel
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Offline CookieMustard

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2019, 09:56:31 PM »
Valentina Tereshkova (purportedly the person on the recording in WTN) is alive and and a member of the Russian legislature to boot.

I think Jay misspoke when he  said it was Tereshkova. Tereshkova's flight was in June 1963. The date claimed for this recording (according to the wikipedia page for the Judica-Cordiglia brothers who made the recording) is November 1963.  The early Russian space program never used the same cosmonaut twice. The recording has the same level of credibility as a Bigfoot video.

Offline Tassie Dave

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Re: Episode #731
« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2019, 03:19:11 AM »
Cara says she can't feel earthquakes below a 6 and felt that very few people could feel anything below a high 5. She sounded amazed that people could feel a 3. Could this be because she lives in a large city where traffic and heavy commercial businesses just overpower such weak tremors?  ???

I live in a remote, thinly populated area and have experienced about a dozen tremors over my life and they were all between 2.5 and 3.5. The 3.5 was enough to feel minor movement, and was felt by people over several towns in my area.

 

 

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