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Tech Talk / Re: Is my keyboard on its last legs?
« Last post by The Latinist on Today at 12:37:17 PM »
Consider this perfectly true information in counterpoint: I have had UPS mistakenly deliver packages to my neighbor, I have had them route packages that have already reached my state to another state before delivering, I’ve had Fed Ex “guaranteed” next day packages arrive late, and I’ve had multiple Fedex Ground packages arrive crushed, with their contents destroyed. What do you think the appropriate conclusion for me to draw from this information?  Should I conclude that the USPS is stellar while UPS and Fedex are shit?  If so, how do you reconcile it with your opposite conclusions?  Do these organizations have it in for me, and the USPS has it in for you?  Or is it perhaps that you have had a few anecdotal experiences which you have generalized to an entire organization?

Personally, my conclusion is that no organization is perfect; that the logistics of package delivery and mechanical sorting and computerized routing are complex and that every one in a while, they break down; and that delivery persons are human an make mistakes.  I further conclude that my anecdotal experiences cannot be generalized, and that only actual data on reliabilty would justify a conclusion about the relative merits of each company.  Again, I think your conclusions are not justified by your experiences.
TV & Movies / Re: Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi
« Last post by Paul Blevins Jr. on Today at 12:29:25 PM »
Just got back from seeing it. I loved it. Definitely the  best Star Wars film of the Disney era. Plays out much more as a concluding chapter that the middle installment of a trilogy. In fact, I really, truly, deeply wish the powers that be would let this stand as the cap to the Star Wars franchise. No more films after this. Let it go out on a high note. The epilogue/final scene of this film is such a PERFECT coda for Star Wars!!   [b]Sigh. It's show BUSINESS not show ART.

Without going into spoilers, some details:

The Canto Bight stuff is all bullshit filler. Weakest parts of the film and I hated every moment we got pulled away from Rey/Luke/Kylo to go there. (except for that final epilogue which is set there, so I guess that excuses it a bit)

Those Rey/Luke/Kylo moments ate the best parts of the film and some of the most mature stuff ever done in the Star Wars franchise. Daisy Ridley is really good in this and I look forward to seeing her have a great career in other roles.

As someone who saw the first Star Wars movie it's first weekend back in '77 at the age of 14....a certain character's passing really got me to tear up a bit, I admit.   But I thought it was done beautifully and was a wonderful callback to one of the most iconic moments for the character from the first movie.

There has GOT to be at least a ten year time jump between this and the next movie. Undoubtedly that's how they will deal with Carrie Fisher's death.
TV & Movies / Re: Rate the last movie you just saw.
« Last post by superdave on Today at 12:13:38 PM »
7.5 / 10

the science doesnt quite work, and its definitely offensive, but i laughed.
That's not exactly what Nutritional Epidemiology is. And no, I'm not dismissing the entire field, I'm suggesting it's the worst way to conduct this kind of science. Specifically, to understand the effect of specific foods and groups on heath. (RCTs are much better.)

Actually, prospective cohort studies using food-frequency questionnaires are the best way to study the effects of diet on chronic diseases that take many years to develop.  RCTs are not plausible for reasons of cost and issues of long-term compliance.  I'm afraid the orifice out of which you are talking is not the one you think.

As usual I find these diet debates incredibly boring, but this post piqued my interest.  One of the narratives that often ensnares skeptics when looking at the world of medical research is the idea of a "ladder" of medical research, with RCTs at the top, then cohort/case control studies, and basic research at the bottom.  This idea is particularly attractive to people accustomed to dealing with crackpots, since RCTs tend to reveal the flaws and questionable scientific methodology of smaller trials.  But sometimes RCTs are not the best form of evidence.  Every type of trial has strengths and weaknesses, and you have to consider those merits when trying to answer a specific question

I always point people to research on influenza treatment if they want to understand why this is so important.  Cochrane Collaboration has very harsh reviews of both of flu vaccines and Tamiflu, largely because they overemphasize RCTs and downplay the evidence from cohort trials and basic knowledge of disease dynamics and immunology.  That's not to say that conclusions in Cochrane are wrong, but that they don't get to claim final authority on the subject by saying "RCT>Cohort, now and forever".

To be clear, my issue is not with Large Cohort studies. It's with the tool (FFQs) used to gather data for these specific cohort studies.

That said, RCTs certainly have value.

What seems to be happening in diet and nutrition is that the finding of the RCTs don't align with the mainstream positions on diet and nutrition, so they shifted to these large cohort studies. Even then they failed to prove that fat or saturated fat was unhealthy. Some later analyses are looking at the data and finding new correlations (meat and chronic diseases, for example) that the studies weren't designed to look for.

Large Cohort studies certainly have a place, and so do clinical studies and RCTs, but you don't want to promote any study with a methodology that's inaccurate.

And you certainly don't want to promote the form of study that supports your predetermined view on the subject, because it supports your predetermined view on the subject.
Tech Talk / Re: Is my keyboard on its last legs?
« Last post by daniel1948 on Today at 11:59:22 AM »
Don’t forget it’s almost Christmas. I’m an online seller and I can tell you, post can get veeery slow at this time of year because there’s a hell of a lot of it.

Yes. Fortunately, this is not urgent. I just wish the USPS would actually deliver stuff to the correct address when it does arrive. They used to be able to do this.

I’m not sure it’s reasonable to conclude anything about “the USPS” based on your experience. “The USPS” doesn’t put the mail in your box or your neighbor’s box; a single human carrier does so.

I've never had a package misrouted by Fed Ex or UPS. The USPS misroutes my packages on a regular basis. I've never had Fed Ex or UPS mark a package as "delivered" wen it had not actually been delivered. The USPS has done this more than once. Yes, it is individual carrier or sorters. But that can be said of everything. Every organization and company is a collection of individuals. In reliable companies, mistakes are caught before they have an impact. In unreliable companies they are not. The USPS used to be 100% reliable. Or at least 99.9999%. They are not any more. When Fed Ex or UPS promises delivery on a given date, nothing but a blizzard will prevent it. When the USPS promises delivery, it's a coin toss.
TV & Movies / Re: Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi
« Last post by Nosmas on Today at 11:50:25 AM »
Damn. I really should have posted my reply in "Rate the last movie you saw" in here instead.
TV & Movies / Re: Rate the last movie you just saw.
« Last post by Nosmas on Today at 11:46:48 AM »
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

7/10 as a Star Wars fan
8.5/10 trying to view it as a movie without expectations from the series

I realize it's a good movie but I'm very disappointed with some choices.

(click to show/hide)
I find this gravely disturbing.  Is this part of what they really mean when they utter the phrase "Make America great again"?
They're doing cosmetic changes prior to putting the country on the market. Check E-bay next year, it's going to go fast.

I hear the EU is about to have room for another 1-4 states.

the CDC has never used those words!

Yes, they did.
I find this gravely disturbing.  Is this part of what they really mean when they utter the phrase "Make America great again"?
They're doing cosmetic changes prior to putting the country on the market. Check E-bay next year, it's going to go fast.
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