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91
Skepticism / Science Talk / Common cause vs multiple independent failures?
« Last post by Desert Fox on July 24, 2017, 05:22:21 AM »
I might change the title is there are suggestions on alternate ways to argue.

You have a problem - could be medical, could be related to an automobile, or could be something on a computer. You have multiple problems with could be related through common connections and/or symptoms. Each problem itself however is a relatively common independent failure on its own. The single cause is rarer but is it rarer than multiple independent failures?

Which one should be looked at as most likely? Multiple independent common failures or single common cause?

Let us use computers because it is the easier to explain - You have two DVD-Roms in a single computer and they both fail at approximately the same time. DVD Roms do fail but how to compare the odds of two failing at the same time vs there being a problem with a motherboard controller?

I have seen this happen a couple of times recently and both times they were independent failures while in both case I was wrongly thinking there was a common cause.
92
Podcast Episodes / Re: Episode #628
« Last post by 2397 on July 24, 2017, 05:03:00 AM »
Condolences.

If nuclear isn't viable because it takes too long to get the benefits, wouldn't reducing reproduction be the opposite of that? It takes 20-30 years for new humans to pay off, but the costs start right away. And in another 20-30 years, technology should've advanced that much further that we might not be so dependent on having kept creating new workers.
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Podcast Episodes / Re: Episode #628
« Last post by bachfiend on July 24, 2017, 03:57:43 AM »
In their enthusiasm during their discussion with Michael Mann, I think the SGU crew revealed a bit of a blind spot and cognitive dissonance.  The SGU was sued by Dr Tobinick over critical comments, and during the course of the lawsuit, the team was promoting "anti-SLAPP" legislation to stop these kinds of frivolous suits.  Michael Mann is involved in similar lawsuits against several of his critics over remarks made against him that he claims are defamatory.  These lawsuits are problematic:

"...Case Western Reserve University law professor Jonathan Adler warns that the court's decision [to allow the lawsuits to proceed] 'is tremendously unfortunate, as it threatens to make it too easy for public figures to file lawsuits against their critics and, as a consequence, threatens to chill robust political debate.'"

http://reason.com/blog/2016/12/22/climate-scientist-michael-manns-defamati

You may think that Mann is on the right side of the issue, but is it right to blow up fundamental rights of US citizens in the process?

thelaker,

So, do you think it's OK for anyone to be compared to a child molestor and rapist?  How is this an infringement of Americans' right to political free speech?  And why should freedom of political speech apply to questions of science such as climatology and global warming?

Anyway.  I saw 'Dunkirk' today - I noticed that there's a new film coming out next month 'An Inconvenient Sequel', which I've added to my (very short) list of films to see.
94
General Discussion / Re: Sexism & Mechanics
« Last post by Redamare on July 24, 2017, 03:08:33 AM »
I find myself wondering two things;

Is there a strategy that protects women, specifically in a meaningful way?

Wouldn't pursuing such a strategy amount to sacrificing genuine compassion and consumer rights in favor of mainstream narrative optics?
95
General Discussion / Thinking of the Novella family
« Last post by Redamare on July 24, 2017, 03:03:19 AM »
Just wanted to extend my condolences to Bob and Jay and Steve, and all of the Novellas as they cope with the loss of their father. Wishing you all the best, and keeping you in my thoughts.

With love and gratitude for all the work you do,
-Jeff
96
Books / Re: Books You'll Never Brag About Having Read
« Last post by Tassie Dave on July 24, 2017, 02:35:49 AM »
I was made to read "Jonathan Livingstone Seagull" in Primary School by a teacher who thought it was deeper than it actually was. So that doesn't really count.

The only one I chose to read was "Battlefield Earth". Back in the 80s. Before I knew who and what an asshat L. Ron Hubbard was.

It was "ok" for a trashy sci-fi novel.
97
Podcasts / Re: Skeptoid
« Last post by moj on July 24, 2017, 12:09:49 AM »
Yeah it had never even occurred to me that Dunning is a libertarian until I heard about it in this thread. And now that it's been mentioned, it makes perfect sense in light of his legal troubles and some of the things he's said in the podcast.
And yet he accepted the rule of law, and did his time as required by the court. So maybe small-l libertarian. Or maybe his political beliefs are just a little more complicated than that...
Really? Thats the best you got as a defense? Sad.
98
Forum Games / Re: Visual Counting
« Last post by ella on July 23, 2017, 11:49:29 PM »
99
Skepticism / Science Talk / Re: Joe Rogan upping his Science & Skepticism game
« Last post by GodSlayer on July 23, 2017, 11:41:17 PM »
That is exactly what SGU does. Steve trims down interviews and segments for SGU and the cut material (and other stuff) is available for members-only listening.

how good's the stuff we're missing out on?
100
Skepticism / Science Talk / Re: Joe Rogan upping his Science & Skepticism game
« Last post by HanEyeAm on July 23, 2017, 11:28:30 PM »
I imagine he prefers it the way he's doing it.

yeh, but if it would cost him nothing, and get him a few listeners with less free time, he might be into it.

though I don't know of anyone who has actually tried this milk model of podcasting -- would people really want the trim milk version, trusting that nothing good is cut out? would people ever bother with the full cream version if they knew the trim one probably had everything worth the bother?

That is exactly what SGU does. Steve trims down interviews and segments for SGU and the cut material (and other stuff) is available for members-only listening.

Rogan can keep tighter tolerances for a shorter run time with no loss of flexibility or yumminess, IMO. I get that requires more time up front and probably some training on interviewing skills. If you Google a bit, the average run time is usually under an hour, with 20 minutes for a podcast being touted as a good target for adults given average attention spans (and commute times). It depends on the topic and the target audience, of course. It's a good show as it is: he'd reach more folks with a shorter run time, though, say 45 minutes (again, IMO. And I would say the same for SGU).

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